NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves: Frankie Montas makes Mets debut

Months of shoulder rehab and recovery later, Frankie Montas makes his New York Mets debut on Tuesday.

New York signed the veteran righty to a one-year, $17 million option in the offseason, only for Montas to get injured early and not even appear in spring training. He now takes the mound after rehabbing his strained lat muscle into being game-ready.

Montas is being thrown right into the gauntlet too. The Mets face their NL East rival Atlanta Braves who, despite sitting third in the division and 10.5 games behind first-place Philadelphia, lead the season series 4-0.

New York, meanwhile, is only 1.5 games behind the Phillies. A healthy Montas boosts a banged up pitching staff and, hopefully, inches the Mets closer to being in first place agin. But if Montas’ shoulder is still barking, it’s back to the drawing board for manager Carlos Mendoza and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner.

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: SNY, TBS

Betting Line: Mets +1.5 (+125), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Is Frankie Montas finally healthy? In case you forgot, it wasn’t that long ago that Frankie Montas was considered a half-decent pitcher, perhaps even an ace. The Yankees traded for him to boost their rotation in 2022, only for a lingering shoulder injury to hit Montas full force. He never found his form with the Yankees, had shoulder surgery in 2023 before appearing in one game near season’s end, and then signed with the Reds in free agency. Montas finally managed a full season in 2024, going 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA in 30 starts between Cincinnati and Milwaukee.

However, after this latest injury—and in the shoulder area again, at that—one has to wonder just how much Montas actually has to offer the Mets.

Pitching Matchup: Spencer Strider (2-5, 3.89 ERA) vs Frankie Montas (2025 debut). Strider has pitched well since returning from Tommy John surgery, but New York hasn’t exactly been kind to him. The young righty owns a 4.91 ERA both at Citi Field and against the Mets in general. Talent aside, this definitely stirs some “Can’t pitch in New York” discourse. He did, however, hold New York to one run in six innings with eight strikeouts on June 19.

Montas, on the other hand, is a different story. Though healthy, his minor league rehab appearances left plenty to be desired. In six games split between High-A and Triple-A, Montas posted an atrocious 12.06 ERA in 18.2 innings. He has allowed eight home runs. Maybe he’s not 100% healthy yet and keeping it to himself. Perhaps his velocity is down despite going up in 2024, post-surgery.

One way or another, Mendoza should be squeezing a lucky rabbit’s foot before and during Montas’ start this evening.

X-Factor: Jeff McNeil. The Mets’ veteran super-utility man is in the midst of another up-and-down year, albeit an overall good one. With a more pull-first approach, he’s batting .243 with eight home runs on the year, plus an .813 OPS and 125 wRC+. In his last ten games, however, McNeil is batting .171. and could use a hot streak ahead of the All-Star Break.

Lucky for McNeil, his career numbers against Atlanta should help him. He owns a .324 lifetime batting average and .822 OPS against Atlanta. Expect him to be aggressive against Strider, who’s arsenal leans heavily on his fastball and slider.

Prediction: So many questions, only so many hours until the first pitch. Which version of Frankie Montas shows up in Flushing? Will Strider’s success against the Mets in his last start carry over into tonight? What of the red-hot Juan Soto and his .322 lifetime batting average against the Braves?

Put it all together, and it all comes down to the bullpen. New York’s relievers rank fourth in MLB with a 3.29 ERA, Atlanta’s rank 14th at 3.70. If you’re on New York sports betting apps, betting the over seems smart regardless of outcome. Adding hitting parlays for Soto and McNeil is also a good idea, especially if being aggressive is the gameplan. When the dust settles, pick the Mets in a slight squeaker. Mets 6, Braves 4.