The Yankees endured a heartbreaking 3-2 loss in Cleveland despite four hits from Aaron Judge and the returning Ben Rice’s leadoff home run. Mark Leiter Jr. didn’t have his best breaking pitches, coughed up the lead, and New York’s bats couldn’t capitalize on any baserunners.
They’ll hand the ball to Carlos Rodon in Wednesday’s matinee finale in hopes of avoiding a sweep. The big lefty was strong in his last outing versus the Rays on Friday, pitching six shutout innings of two-hit ball with nine strikeouts and four walks. Fans will recall Rodon also started the Pennant-clinching Game 5 in last year’s ALCS.
In a nutshell, the Yankees are set up to avoid a sweep, but only if the big bats break through.
Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
TV: YES
Run Line: Yankees -1.5, O/U 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (2-3, 4.34 ERA) vs. Luis L. Ortiz (2-2, 5.48 ERA). Rodon should have a great day, by the numbers. He owns a 2.81 career ERA against the Guardians and a 3.08 ERA at Progressive Field. However, as with any of his starts, his success is determined by his pitch mix. The changeup and curveball absolutely must be played off of his fastball and slider.
Cleveland’s Ortiz is a different story. He relies on a four-pitch mix, led by his fastball and slider. He’s also better than his numbers imply, but not by much. Ortiz has pitched to a 2.53 ERA (3.49 FIP) in his last two starts while holding opposing hitters to a .135 batting average.
However, Ortiz spent his first four seasons with the Pirates and faced the Yankees twice. In those two starts, he struggled to a 4.66 ERA and walked eight in 9.2 innings.
X-Factors: Clay Bellinger & Paul Goldschmidt. We’re at the point of April now where we should really be concerned about both of these hitters. Bellinger went from having a strong spring training to being a shell of himself almost overnight. It’s still early enough for him to turn things around, but his performance thus far resembles his awful latter Dodgers days
Goldschmidt, contrastingly, is actually having a good season! He’s batting .371 and that ranks second behind Judge not only in the American League, but in all of baseball. The problem is that of Goldschmidt’s 33 hits, 27 of them are singles. Worse yet, he isn’t hitting the ball hard and has seen his hard-hit rate dip almost 16 points from last year, down to 23.9%.
The Yankees need good days from both to win today. Judge can’t do it by himself, especially after a four-hit game. Furthermore, Bellinger is here to hit home runs. So is Goldschmidt, who instead has dinked and dunked soft contact singles like some leadoff speedster. It’s time for the Yankees’ big bats to go boom.
Prediction. One thing the YES broadcasts mention a lot when the Yankees are trying to avoid a sweep is the next plane ride. Everyone wants to end the series and hit the plane ride on a high note, especially with Thursday being an off day. We should also note this game caps New York’s seven-game road trip.
So, by the numbers, this should be the Yankees’ game to lose. Running the moneyline is probably the safest move on New York sports betting apps, plus the over and maybe a Judge home run to build a parlay. Maybe put Rodon down for having six or more strikeouts if it’s an aggressive day. Yankees 7, Guardians 5
