The National Championship game is finally here and we couldn’t be more excited with the matchup. The undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs are set to battle with the dominant Baylor Bears. This is the finish to March Madness that we all wanted.
Let’s take a look at this Baylor vs. Gonzaga matchup with an emphasis on the odds, analysis, and betting pick for this National Championship game.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga Betting Pick
Baylor and Gonzaga have been steamrolling the competition all year long. Now, these two stacked rosters will finally get the chance to go head-to-head. This is actually the first time that Baylor has been an underdog this season. Gonzaga will finish the year as the favorite in every single game they have played this year.
Baylor vs. Gonzaga Odds
Here are the latest odds on Baylor vs. Houston at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Baylor +4.5 (-108) // +163 // O 159.5 (-108)
Gonzaga -4.5 (-112) // -200 // U 159.5 (-112)
Gonzaga is a slight favorite over Baylor here, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Although Gonzaga needed overtime and a Jalen Suggs buzzer-beater to beat UCLA, they entered the Final Four with 28 consecutive double-digit victories. Gonzaga has made a lot of good teams look bad this year.
Speaking of good teams, let’s talk about the Baylor Bears. The only two losses Baylor suffered all year came to ranked opponents (Kansas and Oklahoma State). The Bears smacked in-state rival Houston in the Final Four by a score of 78-59.
It’s impossible to ignore the fact that the two best teams in the country are meeting in the National Championship game. That doesn’t happen very often in college basketball. Hopefully, Baylor-Gonzaga lives up to the hype.
Why Baylor Can Cover The Spread
For most of the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga looked like a safe play against any spread. They were stomping out opponents left and right en route to the Final Four. However, UCLA’s incredible push against the Bulldogs on Saturday night is worth noting. Gonzaga looked vulnerable against the shot-making of UCLA.
Baylor has fantastic guards like Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler who can go get a bucket at any time. The experience of these guards should play well on the biggest stage of all.
The Bears are 19-10 against the spread so far this season. This will be the first time that Baylor is an underdog all year long. Plenty of folks are jumping at the opportunity to grab Baylor with plus odds.
Why Gonzaga Can Cover The Spread
Gonzaga had its toughest game of the year against UCLA in the Final Four. Was that game a preview of how Baylor is going to beat Gonzaga or can the Bulldogs bounce back in a big way?
Relying on freshmen can backfire in the NCAA Tournament, but Jalen Suggs is not your average freshman. When Johnny Juzang scored in the final few seconds against Gonzaga on Saturday, a second overtime looked inevitable. But Suggs took the ball down the court and banked in the game-winning three with ice water in his veins. If you are going to bet on Gonzaga, Jalen Suggs is going to be a huge reason why.
Gonzaga is 14-12-2 ATS this year and they have been the favorite in every game they have played. With that said, this will be one of the few times this season that the Bulldogs are favored by single digits.
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Betting The Baylor-Gonzaga Total
Betting on either side of the point spread is tough. Most bettors will come into this National Championship game with a team they like and continue to ride that. However, there is money to be made on the over-under in this game. The total is set to 159.5 points. That’s awfully high for a college game, but Gonzaga and Baylor are 100% capable of flying by this number.
Gonzaga plays at a rapid pace and Baylor should have no problem keeping up with the Bulldogs. We expect to see both teams run on Monday night.
Baylor has played 11 games this year where the point total was 148 or higher. They averaged 87.5 points in those games. The Bears were 18-11 on over-unders this year compared to Gonzaga’s 15-13 record.
Don’t be fooled by Gonzaga’s lukewarm record on overs this year. The only reason why they are 15-13 is due to the fact that most of their totals are set to insanely high numbers and their opponents can’t keep up. Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points in all but three of their games this year.
This game is setting up to be a shootout rather than the grind-it-out games we usually see in National Championships.
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Baylor vs. Gonzaga Prediction
Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but we are taking Baylor with the points here. Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the history of college basketball, but Baylor is capable of making this one close. We expect this game to come down to the final few minutes. For that reason, we are taking the underdog.
Pick: Baylor +4.5
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