New York Islanders: Ranking John Tavares’ suitors from least to most likely

As John Tavares continues to meet with teams such as the Kings, Sharks, Bruins & Lightning, Long Island waits with apprehension.

Over the next five days, John Tavares is going to sit down comfortably while thinking long and hard about the contract he will either sign prior to or on July 1. Of the long list of suitors and viable candidates, the only teams confirmed to have met with Tavares are the San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins and the New York Islanders.

In regards to the amount and term, that’s not necessarily important. Clearly, of the teams that Tavares has invited to the table, his number one priority is spending his best years with the team that gives him the best chance to win.

Isles fans will continue to wait with deep anxiety as Tavares and Pat Brisson weigh their options going forward. Many of the teams meeting with Tavares are per request, with an interesting addition.

There’s a lot to know about in regards to the probability of where Tavares lands and the following is a list of Tavares’ most likely free agent destinations in order of least to most expected.

Here are the John Tavares team rankings that rank the most likely club the Long Island captain will ultimately sign with:

The Stars even mentioned here is, that of itself, a total surprise. … or is it?

The Stars finished outside of the playoffs with 92 points last season after a very active 2017 offseason which saw them acquire goaltender Ben Bishop, a major plug after the Antti Niemi-Kari Lehtonen duo put up the worst goaltending numbers in the NHL.

Still, in 2015-16 the Stars won the Western Conference, finished third in the league and bowed out in Game 7 of the second round to the St. Louis Blues. Much of that nucleus is still intact and upgraded in goal.

The Stars have a strong offensive group led by Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza and Alexander Radulov and had the seventh-fewest goals allowed in the NHL when it’s all said and done. If Bishop can settle in next season and with a few tweaks here and there, the Stars can return to their 2015-16 form.

But, again, this is all speculative and the team still finished outside the playoffs making them the long-shot hopefuls.

Despite what the majority of the media would have you believe, the Maple Leafs can’t fit Tavares in their books, there’s just no room for the long-term deal he’s looking for. Names such as Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Auston Matthews will need to re-up after next season and expect Matthews to command Connor McDavid-Jack Eichel type of salary.

This isn’t even mentioning the raise due to William Nylander, currently an RFA. Would the Leafs consider allowing one or two pieces of the core they built walk for the opportunity to land Tavares?

Better question, are they fully committed to offering both Tavares and Matthews salary upwards of $10 million each? Just ask the Chicago Blackhawks how they’re managing with both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane on the books.

While a decent chunk of change is coming off-books in the 2020 offseason (Patrick Marleau, Nathan Horton & Matt Martin set to become free agents), and there is the possibility bridge deals could be worked out until they can afford to pay the majority of their superstars, Shanahan will have to pull a serious Steve Yzerman to manage all of these contracts under the cap.

The Leafs are an enticing offer to Tavares in that they’re ready to win now, but the overzealous media that helped drive out Phil Kessel is a threat to the quiet lifestyle Tavares enjoys leading making a return to Canada an unlikely reunion.

The Bruins are an interesting team added by Tavares after picking out the first five suitors.

The Bruins were in a weird spot in the 2014-15 season, they missed the playoffs the season after winning the President’s Trophy and bowing out to the Montreal Canadiens in seven games.

Since then, the Bruins successfully retooled (even if they may have passed on Barzal three-straight times in 2015) and made an impressive push in the second half of the 2017-18 season propelling them to one point out of winning the Eastern Conference.

A healthy mix of budding youth in Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, Ryan Donato among others with a core of the best two-way center in the NHL Patrice Bergeron and the mildly-reformed pest/goal-scorer Brad Marchand and the 2014 Vezina winner in Tuukka Rask.

All this sounds fantastic on paper, but the reality is the Bruins have their share of free agents to make decisions on including Riley Nash, Tommy Wingels and Sean Kuraly. With current cap space of $11m, it’s unclear how the Bruins will be able to deal with Tavares’ contract in the later years if things don’t work out for them almost immediately.

In late June of 2016, after bidding goodbye to Kyle Okposo and while Frans Nielsen negotiations were falling apart, the Islanders were rumored to have prepared a pitch for him to come and play with Tavares.

In June of 2018, Stamkos is pitching Tavares to head to south Florida. Funny how these things come full circle.

Tampa Bay is the first team on this list that elevates the threat. While their cap space is very narrow at just over $10 million in room, the low Florida income tax would likely see Tavares sign to a deal similar to Stamkos’ $8.5 million (maybe $9.5 mil?).

Yzerman is no stranger to wrestling the NHL salary cap, and Ryan Callahan looks like the perfect piece of trade bait with two years left on a $5.8 million contract that Tampa may have to eat a million or so off. Moreover, Nikita Kucherov will need a significant raise after the 2018-19 season, so landing Tavares likely means goodbye Kuch.

Again, Yzerman’s work in maintaining his core is impressive, but will begin to come at costs, especially if they want Tavares. If they’re that drawn to adding him, it can be arranged.

The San Jose Sharks were my front-runners to be the most predatory club in the mix, and they continue to be the biggest threat to the Islanders re-signing Tavares.

San Jose easily fits all of Tavares’ desires in his new team.

The Sharks are in win-now mode, and after the franchise’s first-ever Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2016, the Sharks have been retooling and tweaking aspects of their roster. Adding Tavares would arguably be their Butch Goring, especially with the core of Brent Burns and Joe Pavelski already pushing to the other side of 30.

Just imagine a line featuring Tavares centering Pavelski and Logan Couture. Yikes.

Not to mention this is all taking place in the market of San Jose. If there’s anything Isles fans can attest to, its Tavares’ desire to live a quiet, lax lifestyle, perfectly suited for the Bay Area.

The Sharks are the prime candidate if Tavares decides not to return home.

1. New York Islanders

In two words: Unfinished business.

There are numerous statements out there through the seasons where John Tavares has iterated his desire to remain on Long Island. Tavares always said he wants to remain on Long Island, but it didn’t at all seem feasible as the 2017-18 season wore on.

In fact, the sentiment around the fanbase was that Tavares was practically gone on the day Jon Ledecky gave his ominous press conference stating a full-scale review was underway. Imagine being Tavares and thinking about re-upping for eight years the way things were back in April.

Lou Lamoriello has completely changed the face of the organization and brought accountability and a winning pedigree back to Long Island. The hiring of Barry Trotz iced the deal, and the inevitable roster overhaul that will take place later this July should all help sell the captain on a reunion.

Until now, it feels that all the Islanders were giving Tavares were fantastic and logical excuses to leave. They have responded to a losing season by hiring Lou Lamoriello, who determined in less than two weeks that a ‘culture change‘ was necessary and hired the head coach of the team that just won the Stanley Cup.

The roster is indeed in need of a goaltender and maybe a defenseman or two, but Lamoriello has stated this is a win-now team in the past and intends to keep it that way.

The Islanders have to be in the playoffs next season, just as he did with the head coach, Lamoriello will provide the Islanders with the best possible solution to the Islanders goaltending troubles at the very least.

Besides, how can you turn down free bagels for life?