Football players come in with high expectations only to burst a fantasy football owners dream. Here are the Top 10 Fantasy busts to avoid.
By Steven Cifuentes
By about the 5th round they are a couple beers in and that top 300 list is the only thing that stops them from asking did Jamaal Charles get drafted yet.
At the top of that Top 300 list is all of the potential fantasy football studs that preform as expected, but it also contains the land mines that will kill your season in the fantasy football bust.
In 2014, fantasy owners that drafted Adrian Peterson felt the wrath of the bust. While no owner could ever predict why he would be suspended the entire season, he is the poster child for a fantasy football bust
A bust is a player taken at the top half of the draft who produces like he should have been dubbed the Mr. Irrelevant of your draft. You take him expecting major fantasy points, only to be disappointed when he is on the waiver wire by week 10.
From not producing at the level you expected, to a season ending injury or suspension, there are plenty of reasons a top player can be labeled a bust.
Here is Elite Sports NY’s prediction of who will bust up your draft and lead you to a middle of the road or last place finish. Avoid these players, or at least temper your expectations, you won’t regret it.
10. Julius Thomas, TE-JAX
Julius Thomas must have awoken to a nightmare when he realized the Denver Broncos wanted no part of trying to figure out how to get him signed under the salary cap. They were going all in for Demaryius Thomas and setting him free.
When his agent called and the option presented was the Jacksonville Jaguars it just made the bad dream worse. Thomas is going from a future hall of fame quarterback in Peyton Manning to a second year rookie in Blake Bortles.
Thomas is coming off back to back 12 touchdown seasons, but that is with a quarterback that was breaking records and setting career milestones. Bortles will not put him in the situation to amass anywhere close to his production as a Bronco.
Let another owner read the last two years of stats and think they got a steal in Thomas. He will disappoint in the end and that owner may be looking for a new tight end sooner rather then later.
9. Rashad Jennings, RB-NYG
The New York Giants are expected to have a powerhouse offense this season. Why not take the starting running back and laugh all the way to the bank? The problem for Rashad Jennings owners will be free agent acquisition Shane Vereen.
Do not expect Jennings on the field for any key passing downs. Vereen is paid to be the ultimate check down running back and Eli Manning will use him wisely.
Last year was Jennings first season as a featured back and he went down with an injury that cost him six games. With the Giants injury history in recent seasons, I would expect Jennings to be on the injury report more then he is off it.
Don’t let the visions of an epic Giants offensive season fool you into take Jennings to lead your backfield. He will eventually break down and when you watch Vereen replace him on passing downs you will cringe. The worst thing to see as a running back owner is them lose touches to another back.
8. Jeremy Maclin, WR-KC
Jeremy Maclin has been living the dream as a Philadelphia Eagles goto wide receiver. Beside his missed 2013 season, due to injury, Maclin has seen an average of 114 targets a season.
The 2014 season was the perfect storm for Maclin to prove he was fully recovered from his knee injury. Any offensive player in a Chip Kelly offense will see an boost in production. Coming off a 1,300 yard and 10 touchdown season you can see why Maclin is a highly coveted wide receiver on draft day.
The bad news is Maclin is no longer the number one target for the Eagles. He is now with the Kansas City Chiefs the complete opposite of the situation he was in with the Eagles.
Maclin is now having balls thrown to him by Alex Smith in as conservative an offense as you will experience. Running Back Jamaal Charles and tight end Travis Kelce are the top options in this offense and that wont change with Maclin in the mix.
While he should still put up decent numbers, expect a shard drop from his run and gun Eagles days.
7. Melvin Gordon, RB-SD
The hype surrounding Melvin Gordon is tremendous. He is being pegged as a running back two, borderline running back one and he hasn’t even taken a regular season snap.
An owner placing that much stock in a rookie running back is a recipe for fantasy football disaster. Rookie’s take time to adjust and need time to get used to the NFL grind. Gordon has already missed a pre-season game with an injured ankle. Not exactly an encouraging sign.
Add his inexperience to competing in a crowded backfield and you have a potential bust waiting to happen.
The San Diego Chargers stable of running backs includes former Indianapolis Colt Donald Brown, solid third down running back Danny Woodhead and small, but shifty, Branden Oliver. It does not get any deeper then that backfield for a rookie to break into.
Quarterback Philip Rivers is known as one of the most competitive players in the NFL. He will not let rookie mistakes pile up when there are serviceable running backs waiting in the wings.
6. Justin Forsett, RB-BAL
It is very rare that an NFL running back starts to make an impact at the age of 28. That is exactly what occurred last season when Just Forsett took over the number one running back duties and went on to put up a career season.
In 2014, Forsett finally got his chance to shine and he did not disappoint. He tallied 1,266 yards and 8 touchdowns while leading the Baltimore Ravens to the Divisional Playoff round losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots.
My problem with Forsett is that running backs just don’t rise from the ashes at the age of 29-30 years old . Even with him not being a number one back his entire career, he still has plenty of wear taken off those tires.
Running backs in football start their decline at the magic number of 30 years old. Forsett hits that number this season and it scares me just enough to avoid him early in the draft.
5. Emmanuel Sanders, WR-DEN
Reports are coming out of Denver that quaterback Peyton Manning still doesn’t have any feelings in his fingertips, post multiple neck surgeries. That is never a good sign considering how bad Manning ended the 2014 season.
Emmanuel Sanders broke out in a big way last season, but hidden in those gaudy stats he put up was how the drop off of Manning at the end of the season directly affected Sanders.
In the last five weeks of the 2014 season Sanders never cracked 75 yards and he only scored one touchdown during that entire span. That is not exactly the production you want from a number one receiver during fantasy playoff time.
Add into the mix that reports are coming out that the Denver Broncos plan to run the ball more, to take pressure off Manning, and you are looking at a slip in production for Sanders.
If you have to reach early to take Sanders and he ends up your number one receiver, your season could end up being a lot worse then you expected.
4. Brandon Marshall, WR-NYJ
Brandon Marshall is trying to use New York to prove he is not the quarterback killer so many media members portray him out to be. He went so far as to move in with expected number one quarterback Geno Smith to help build a good rapport.
That didn’t work out as expected when Smith had his jaw broken by a teammate and will be out for the start of the 2014 season. I may have left Marshall off this list if Smith was starting as Smith would have been locking in on Marshall all day.
Now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center I don’t see Marshall having a great season. Fitzpatrick is not known for his tremendous arm strength and he tends to check down to the safe play. Marshall will put up some touchdowns, but the yardage will not be there in the end.
If you draft Marshall early you may have to wait until his BFF Smith gets back under center to see any sort of solid production.
3. Drew Brees, QB-NO
Sean Payton realized something after the 2014 season, the days of putting all of your eggs in the Drew Brees basket may be over. Fantasy owners must realize the same thing this year or it will hurt them in the end.
The New Orleans Saints went out and signed running back CJ Spiller in the offseason and will pair him up with Mark Ingram to form a powerful running attack. In addition to focusing on the run, Payton also shipped off dynamic tight end Jimmy Graham.
This season appears to be the year the Saints are turning to a more balanced attack on offense which can only affect Brees’s numbers in a negative way.
If you draft Brees and expect numbers that he put up in the past, you will be bitterly disappointed. Let another owner try to capture lightening in a bottle and pass on Brees this season.
2. DeMarco Murray, RB-PHI
DeMarco Murray had his first injury free season in 2014 and man did it equal a career high season. The problem with his break out is the Dallas Cowboys knew he was a pending free agent and ran him into the ground.
Not many running backs come off 392 carry seasons and remain injury free the next season. Every fantasy owner sees him going to a Chip Kelly offense and are ready to ask Murray to carry them to a fantasy football championship.
While Murray may come out of the gates strong he is bound to break down during the 2015 season. The investment of a first round pick and passing up on the likes of a younger running back like Jeremy Hill will cost an owner in the end.
Murray may defy the odds of lasting the entire 2015 season, but don’t be that owner that takes that chance he makes it through injury free. The likely hood is slim and you will be searching for a replacement for your top pick by week 8.
1. Odell Beckham Jr., WR-NYG
Was there a better player then Odell Beckham Jr. during the last nine weeks of the 2014 season? There was none and it was not even close. The guy put up hall of fame numbers and is the player every fantasy owner wants on draft day.
I am not here to say Beckham Jr. will fall off the face of the earth, but I just don’t see him producing up to his current draft position of a high first round pick.
It is only preseason, but you can already see that teams have one goal and that is not to let Beckham Jr. beat them. Victor Cruz is back in the mix now and while that seems like it could help Beckham Jr., I think it hurts his fantasy production. There is only one ball to go around and Cruz will take targets away from Beckham Jr.
If you are in a keeper league and can keep Beckham Jr. to start your team, I say pull the trigger with confidence. If you have to spend a first round pick on him stay away, his production will not match the first round pick you used on him this season.
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Evertyhing was correct except for Sanders, Marshall and Odell. But great article. You should update us something on fantasy.