The New York Mets’ anemic offense can be attributed to three things: luck, Kevin Long and pressure.
Baseball is weird, but the Mets are even weirder.
While the rest of the league is hitting two points higher with RISP than without runners on base, the Amazin’s are batting .241 with the bases empty, and .207 with runners-in-scoring-position.
Curtis Granderson, the team’s leadoff man, is hitting .260 with the bases empty, and .139 with RISP.
For shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, it’s .276 and .186.
For outfielder Alejandra De Aza, it’s .244 and .083.
How do you explain a team of quality hitters not producing?
Here are three possible theories.
Next: Luck
1. Luck
There are typically three factors that negatively affect hitters with RISP — lots of pickoff attempts, a plethora of intentional walks, and the pursuit of making productive outs.
The Mets don’t check off any of these boxes, though.
Firstly, nobody on the team poses a real threat of stealing bases. Secondly, the hitter you’d anticipate getting walked — Yoenis Cespedes — has only been given a free pass four times.
Finally, New York certainly doesn’t make productive outs (ex: sacrifice flies).
Sabermetricians don’t have an explanation for it, so it’s hard to justify their lack of success using numbers.
Next: Kevin Long
2. Kevin Long
Daniel Murphy credits Kevin Long for revitalizing his approach, but… the same approach doesn’t seem to be working for any of the current Mets.
Maybe it’s the hitters chasing bad stuff, but how does one explain the discrepancy between swinging at bad pitches with runners in scoring position and the bases empty?
Maybe it’s that Long emphasizes “driving the ball” when a hitter receives a pitch of their liking, but the team as a whole only drives the ball a tad bit more with RISP than with the bases empty.
Maybe it’s that the Mets “swing from their heels,” but, again, why would they do that more with runners in scoring position than with nobody on base?
Next: Noise
3. Noise
From a psychological standpoint, can the Mets’ struggles with runners in scoring position be attributed to mental discomfort?
The New York media has sensationalized the Mets’ woes to the point where every at-bat could be viewed as a life-or-death situation.
Pressure is good to a certain degree, but too much pressure is negatively correlated with performances of any kind.
While it’s possible that it wasn’t a mental problem at the start of the season, it’s for sure part mental right now.
Next: Conclusion
Conclusion
After considering all the variables, we’ve come to the conclusion that the Mets are suffering from all three of these things.
Some of this is just bad luck (as evidenced by their league-worst BABIP), but that’s not the full story.
“I’ve talked to some of the great RBI guys in the game, and one thing they talk about is, driving in runs is mental,” Mets manager Terry Collins said, via Jesse Spector of Sporting News.“The approach you have at the plate, your mindset, all you’re trying to do is put the bat on the ball. You’re not looking for home runs, not looking for anything, just saying, ‘Look, work the middle of the field.’ That’s kind of the common denominator with those guys, and we’re just not doing it.”
A poor approach at the plate, coupled with too much pressure placed on the players, is holding the Mets back from making a playoff push.