In Fantasy Football, a bust is a player who is projected to do really well, but doesn’t perform well throughout the course of the season. It is normally determined by looking at a player’s ADP (Average Draft Position) and seeing how much worse they do by the end of the season in comparison to their average draft position.
Last year we saw several players who were considered busts. Nick Foles, who was a top 20 quarterback in most drafts, had a rough first seven weeks before injuring his collarbone in week 9, keeping him off the field for the rest of the season. Adrian Peterson was the number one overall pick in a lot of leagues last season, but a suspension before Week 2 kept him out of football for the year. And of course, Vernon Davis, who had a massive Week 1 only to score less points in the other 15 weeks total than in his first game of the 2014 season.
Fantasy owners definitely want to avoid drafting busts, but the question is, how do you know who the busts are going to be?
Here are the top 10 busts of the 2015 fantasy football season.
10. DeMarco Murray (PHI-RB)
Believe it or not, Murray is the first overall pick in a lot of fantasy leagues this year. Yes, he finished as the No.1 running back last season, but after leaving Dallas, Murray will definitely miss running behind the Cowboys’ offensive line.
Murray enters Chip Kelly’s offense this year which will give Murray a solid number of carries this season. That doesn’t mean he’s getting the close to 500 touches he did in Dallas last season. Plus, he is in the same group of running backs as Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles who will both cut into the number of carries Murray will receive.
Behind a weaker offensive line, and alongside other talented backs, expect DeMarco Murray to take a significant step backwards this season.
9. Emmanuel Sanders (WR-DEN)
With the emergence of CJ Anderson, the departure of Julius Thomas, and the arrival of run-heavy coach Gary Kubiak, all signs point to a run heavy offense in Denver this season.
Following a year where Sanders received a career high 141 targets, a lot of fantasy owners are looking at Sanders as a top 20 receiver. That’s not the case this season in Kubiak’s new offense that should take away at least 10-30 targets from Sanders’s career high.
8. Jeremy Maclin (WR-KC)
Last season, Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith didn’t throw a touchdown to a wide receiver. This means Maclin, who caught 10 touchdown passes last season, may not be as big of a scorer as people are expecting. It’d almost be impossible for Maclin to repeat the production he had in 2014 due to Smith’s lack of touchdown passes, and with a run game that features Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis, taking the majority of the end zone targets.
7. San Francisco 49ers (D/ST)
OK, I hate to be that guy that talks about defenses when referring to busts, but I feel like this is worth pointing out.
ESPN.com has the 49ers defense ranked 14th in their D/ST rankings. However, over the offseason the 49ers lost most of their star defensive player. San Francisco lost LB Chris Borland, CB Perrish Cox, DE Ray McDonald, OLB Dan Skuta, CB Chris Culliver, DE Justin Smith, and ILB Patrick Willis. The Niners then proceeded to fill their roles with rookies, and washed up vets.
No thank you. Do not draft this defense.
6. Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
I personally am a huge fan of Manning, however we are going to see a massive drop in his production this year. The departure of tight ends Julius Thomas, Jacob Tamme and wide receiver Wes Welker led to the arrival of run heavy coach Gary Kubiak, which leads me to believe the Broncos are going to rely more on the run game than their usual pass heavy offense.
This means less attempts for Manning, and for a guy who is being ranked as a top five quarterback, he could be a bust this season.
5. Julius Thomas (TE-JAX)
We all know how dominant Thomas when he was in single coverage, which was rather frequently. Considering the fact that the Jacksonville receiving corps consists of Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee, he’ll be doubled much more.
You can expect to see Thomas get the same number of targets as he did in Denver, but I do not think he will be able to do as much with those targets in comparison to what he did in Denver. Thomas can no longer be considered a top three fantasy tight end.
4. Joique Bell (RB-DET)
A lot of fantasy owners are relatively high on Bell following a great 2014 season in Detroit. Bell set career highs in carries and rushing yards.
However, the only reason Bell was the lead back in the first place was because Detroit didn’t have any other option. The Lions selected explosive running back Ameer Abdullah with their second round pick in the draft to fill the hole left from Reggie Bush’s departure. Expect Abdullah to cut into Bell’s touches early in the season, and eventually take over as the lead back.
3. Matt Forte (RB-CHI)
Forte lead the NFL in receptions last season under head coach Marc Trestman, which is where a lot of his fantasy value came from.
However, new head coach John Fox will probably focus more on having Cutler throw to Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and rookie Kevin White, which will cut into Forte’s fantasy production. Don’t expect Forte to put up top five production in 2015.
2. Drew Brees (QB-NO)
It surprises me just how high people have Brees ranked following the departure of All-Pro Jimmy Graham and arrival of C.J. Spiller. That was a massive sign that the Saints are trying to switch to a run heavy offense, and rightfully so.
Mark Ingram and Spiller will be one of the best running back duos in the NFL this season, and the aging Brees is stuck throwing to a mediocre set of receivers that features a washed up Marques Colston ands young but inexperienced Brandin Cooks. Brees is not a top five quarterback this year, and may not even crack top ten.
1. DeSean Jackson (WR-WAS)
Jackson hauled in over 1,100 yards yet again last season, but don’t expect that streak to continue. D-Jax will have a hard time replicating his 2014 fantasy production under head coach Jay Gruden, who wants to focus more on Alfred Morris and the run game this season, and get Pierre Garçon a little more involved in the passing game.
Speaking of passing, the quarterback situation in Washington is nothing short of disastrous entering this season with injury prone Robert Griffin III at the helm, and inexperienced backup Kirk Cousins just makes too many mistakes for me to trust him this season. Unlike most sources, who have Jackson ranked as a top 20 wide receiver, I wouldn’t expect him to break top 40 production.