Following a come-from-behind ALDS win, the New York Yankees continue their campaign as they take on the Houston Astros in the ALCS.
Get ready, folks. The American League Championship Series gets underway tonight.Against all odds, the New York Yankees secured their position in the ALCS with Wednesday’s Game 5 win over the Cleveland Indians, coming back from down two games to none for the second time in franchise history. Their opponent, the Houston Astros, took down the Boston Red Sox in their ALDS matchup in four games earlier this week.
This is a series that should come down to Games 6 and 7, as both squads have built a matchup that can establish an entertaining preamble to the World Series.
Houston and New York both have MVP candidates in Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge, entertaining shortstops in Didi Gregorius and Carlos Correa, shut-down aces in Dallas Keuchel and Luis Severino and managers that could absolutely play a factor.
In the regular season, Houston won the season series five games to two, but both the postseason is a different animal.
The Yankees are a young, hot and confident group of talent while the Astros feature a stellar rotation and a lineup that just took down Chris Sale and the AL East-winning Red Sox with ease in the ALDS.
With that, it’s time to take a deeper look at the matchups to watch, keys to each team’s victory and ESNY’s staff picks for the 2017 ALCS.
NEXT: Begin Slideshow
Probable Starters
- Game 1: Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA) vs Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA)
- Game 2: Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98 ERA) vs Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36 ERA)
- Game 3: CC Sabathia (14-5, 3.69 ERA) vs TBD
- Game 4: Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.55 ERA) vs TBD
- Game 5-7: TBD vs TBD
This is a department in which the Astros have the edge by an overwhelming amount because of the Game 1-2 duo of Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander.
Players on the current Yankees’ roster own a combined .181/.214/.287 slash line of the dominant left-hander, who owns a career 1.41 ERA in six career starts against them.
Verlander is also not a force to be taken lightly. In five regular-season games with the Astros, he won all five and surrendered just four earned runs in 34 innings pitched (1.06 ERA). The 34-year-old also held the Red Sox to a .241/.324/.414 slash line in two ALDS appearances in which the Astros emerged victoriously.
Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi decided to skip over Sonny Gray and go with Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino on regular rest in Games 1 and 2. CC Sabathia will start Game 3 and be in line for a potential Game 7, while Gray will go Game 4.
Yes, they shut down the tough Indians lineup which features superstars like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, but the Astros, have a much stronger, deeper and hotter lineup than the Indians. On the flip side, the Yankees’ lineup was shutout in Game 1 of the ALDS and scored just one in Game 3.
They will not be able to go in with the gameplan of “just keep us in the game.” Girardi needs quality starts and some length. Expect him to manage the bullpen with some desperation — especially in the first two contests in Houston.
Starters Jaime Garcia and Jordan Montgomery, as well as long reliever Adam Warren, will be in the bullpen, so he won’t be afraid to go with a quick hook against a lineup that led the sport with 5.53 runs per game during the regular season. Especially if he;s in need of a big out early on.
NEXT: Keys For New York
Keys For New York
- Aaron Judge Rebound
The Yankees got away with a series win despite Judge slashing just .050/.208/.100, but they won’t do it again.
It didn’t seem like an approach issue for the MVP candidate, but Indians’ pitching picked apart Judge’s inability to barrel up pitches that break low and away.
Keuchel and Verlander will undoubtedly attempt to expose Judge throughout this series. The Yankees should just hope he continues to make an impact with or without this slump as he looks to avoid setting a new postseason series strikeout record.
- Strike Early
Many across the sport have fallen in love with the resiliency of the young Baby Bombers. Although a 2-0 deficit is clearly nothing to them, they cannot afford to enter the Bronx down two games to a rotation that features Keuchel and Verlander.
WhoWins.com provides a full table of postseason odds depending on how the series stands. When Major League teams take Game 1, they have a 64.1 percent chance to win the series. Up by two games? Those odds jump to 83.8 percent.
The Yankees need to make the job eaiser on themselves.
- Get Dellin Betances Going
Facing an impeccable Houston lineup, the Yankees are going to need all the help they can get. David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman have been superb, but they need Dellin Betances to show up.
In Games 2 and 4 of the ALDS, the All-Star reliever surrendered one run in two innings of work including two walks against the only two batters faced in his latest outing. Girardi will need to get Betances’ mojo back somehow, someway in order to gain an additional edge in the bullpen department.
It’s hard to see what his role will be in what will be a high-leverage situation at all times, however.
- Figure Out The DH Situation
The Yankees didn’t have a single hit from the designated hitter’s spot in the ALDS. Just like Judge, this is a spot in the lineup the Yankees cannot afford to get zero production from.
Chase Headley went 0-for-10 with five strikeouts. Jacoby Ellsbury is 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Matt Holliday, who was an integral part of the lineup before being hit with an ugly viral infection, has yet to get an at-bat.
Considering the fact that he’s battle-tested for postseason play and came up with some big hits for the Yankees down the stretch (like his three-run shot off Drew Pomeranz in early September), there’s no reason Girardi shouldn’t roll the dice and give Holliday some plate appearances.
- Shut Down The Superstars
Why did the Yankees win the division series? Epic bullpen? Clutch starts from Tanaka, Severino, and Sabathia? Sure. But shutting down Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion had a lot to do with it.
That trio of studs went a combined 4-for-45 (.089) with 16 strikeouts and just one home run. It won’t be a hot take to say that if the Yankees can do the same with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez, they’ll be headed to the 2017 World Series.
NEXT: Keys For Houston
Keys For Houston
- Keep Pounding
There’s no sugarcoating it: the Astros can rake.
Houston’s offense led the Majors in runs (896), hits (1581), doubles (346), average (.282), OBP (.346), SLG (.478) and OPS (.823) while striking out fewer than any other team (1087).
Per the Elias Sports Bureau, they also became the seventh team in Major League history to post the highest slugging percentage and the fewest strikeouts in a single season, with only two teams doing so since 1911: the 1948 Yankees and the 1995 Indians.
One simple formula can carry them to their first World Series appearance since 2005: keep on hitting.
- Bridge The Gap
The two-headed monster of Kuechel and Verlander is intimidating while closer Ken Giles, who recorded 34 saves in 38 chances (89.5%) during the regular season, has been stellar in the back-end, but the middle innings should be a concern.
The combination of Francisco Liriano, Lance McCullers Jr., Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrove isn’t overly intimidating and Game 3 of the ALDS is a huge example of that. All four surrendered runs and AJ Hinch had to call on Verlander in attempt to clean it all up — which backfired.
Keeping the middle innings on lockdown will eliminate one of the only flaws Houston has to deal with in the pitching department.
NEXT: Matchups To Watch
Matchups To Watch
- Aaron Judge vs Jose Altuve
MVP candidate vs MVP candidate. Can it get any better than this?
Altuve went 8-for-15 (.533) with three home runs against the Red Sox in the ALDS. The ultimate example of how good he was, however, isn’t up to a metric: the Red Sox intentionally walked him twice during the series to pitch to Carlos Correa.
On the flip side, Aaron Judge set the record for the most strikeouts (16) in a postseason series. Yet, he made a difference in Game 3, ultimately saving the Yankees’ postseason life by robbing Francisco Lindor of a two-run shot. Even when pitchers expose his flaws, his presence cannot be ignored.
The writers already submitted their MVP ballots, but whoever comes through for their respective team this series could solidify their case as the most valuable player.
- AJ Hinch vs Joe Girardi
We saw the good and ugly side of Joe Girardi in this year’s postseason thus far. We saw a guy who was a downright artist in the Wild Card game following a dud from Luis Severino and the guy who inexplicably decided to not challenge a hit-by-pitch in Game 2 of the ALDS.
Then, after being booed at Yankee Stadium, he was able to rally the troops, manage a beautiful final three games of the division series and pulled off an epic series comeback.
AJ Hinch has been solid with the young core Houston as built, but the experience that Girardi has as well as rallying the troops in the series prior, the edge goes to Girardi.
NEXT: Staff Predictions
Prediction: Astros In Six
Houston has two Cy Young caliber starters in Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander going in Games 1 and 2. When those two have the chance to go four or maybe five games in a best-of-seven series, you have to like their chances.
On the other hand, the Yankees’ rotation will have to deal with a complete lineup that led the Majors in runs scored during the regular season. They won’t see the core of that lineup slump the way Lindor, Encarnacion, and Ramirez did in the ALDS — as they aren’t dependent on any one player.
The Astros have 10 players with 50-plus RBI’s, making them just the fourth team in Major League history to have 10-plus players collect 50-plus RBI’s in a single season. When we say “deep lineup,” we mean it.
Yes, New York has a bullpen that has wreaked havoc in the postseason thus far and yes they have all the momentum in the world. However, the Astros look like they’re an unstoppable force.
Unless the Yankees work the pitch count early on and take advantage of the shaky middle relief unit in Houston, the Cinderella story that is the 2017 New York Yankees will come to an end.
Staff Picks
- Rob Sabo: Yankees, 4-1.
Dallas Keuchel has been one long nightmare for anything Pinstripes the last couple of years. It stops now. Not only will the Yanks dominate Game 1, but they’ll ride that momentum with the best bullpen in the game to a quick 5-game series victory. ALCS MVP will be Greg Bird who, along with Didi Gregorius, make for an even dangerous lefty duo than the righty mash brothers of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez.
- Rick Weiner: Yankees, 4-3.
All the pressure is on Houston, just like it was on Cleveland in the ALDS. We saw how that went for the Tribe. The Yankees have proven they can thrive when they’re the underdog.
- Allison Case: Astros, 4-1.
The Astros come in red-hot, have a stellar rotation and the potential MVP on their team. I don’t see the Yankees overcoming this firepower unless the entire lineup comes ready to play every day. Astros make the World Series, Yankees go home, heads held high.
- Bryan Pol: Yankees, 4-2.
New York has a sizable advantage in their starting rotation that is established, well-rested, and deeper than Houston’s. The only hindrance is the lineup; theirs pales in comparison to Houston’s one through nine, especially with the heart of the order, Judge, Sanchez, and Bird, scuffling of late.
- Benny Tomko: Yankees, 4-3.
With the entire planet counting them out after going down two games to none against the team with the best record in the AL in the Cleveland Indians, uncle Moe is completely on their side. I feel the losses come against Kuechel, but I don’t believe that’s going to be enough. Timely hitting, veteran leadership and playing with house money lead to the Yankees being four wins away from number 28.
- Zack Martino: Yankees, 4-2.
After an improbable comeback against the American League’s best, the Cleveland the Indians, the Yankees are coming into Houston will all of the momentum in the world. In the ALDS, the Yankees proved they could go toe-to-toe with anyone in baseball with their better than expected starting rotation and deep bullpen. This was all done without contributions from slugger Aaron Judge, who can heat up at any second and change the course of what should be an amazing series.