With the biggest game in five years coming up for the New York Giants, we examine how they’ll fare against the Green Bay Packers.
- New York Giants (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (10-6)
- NFL, Sunday, Jan. 8, 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
The Giants will travel to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, to take on the Green Bay Packers. This marks the third time that the Giants have traveled to Green Bay for a playoff game since 2007, with New York emerging victorious in the previous two contests.
Despite their history, and the fact that the Giants finished one game better than the Packers in the regular season, Vegas has New York as four-point underdogs heading into this game. Certainly, this has a lot to do with the 23-16 loss the Giants suffered during an earlier trip to Lambeau this season.
Nonetheless, here is a preview of this weekend’s marquee matchup.
Aaron Rodgers will not be a factor
Yes, you read that correctly.
Rodgers is undoubtedly one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and has been on a tear as of late. He will have an impact on the game, as any quarterback does in the playoffs …
But don’t expect big things out of the Packers signal caller.
When these two teams met in week five, Rodgers unquestionably had his worst performance of the season, completing just 23 of his 45 passes for 259 yards. While he had two touchdowns, he was also picked off twice by Janoris Jenkins.
Additionally, the conditions at Lambeau come game time are expected to reach the frigid temperature of just six degrees Fahrenheit. Nearly every quarterback struggles in the cold, but Rodgers is especially bad, with his QB rating dropping an average of 16.87 points when the temperature dips below 40 degrees.
Between the cold weather and a very good Giants defense, expect Rodgers to struggle.
Playoff Eli will do enough
In an undeniably poor season from Eli Manning and the entire Giants offense, the thought of the team emerging as a scoring machine come playoff time seems ridiculous even to the most die-hard Giants fan.
However, there’s a lot of evidence to suggest Eli can do just enough to get the Giants a win.
Manning was just barely outplayed by Rodgers in their first meeting, and while the Giants offense has gotten healthier closer to the end of the season, the Green Bay defense has lost starters on a regular basis.
This is the same Green Bay defense that ranks 20th in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, 22nd against the pass, and 14th against the run. Expect Eli to make some plays against a unit that is mediocre at best.
Key Matchup: Giants WRs vs. Green Bay secondary
No NFL fan on the planet will tell you that Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t the best player on the Giants.
However, it will take a big game from the entire Giants receiving core to take down a very talented Packers team.
The Packers secondary was 31st in the NFL this season in terms of passing yards allowed, and with all their injuries, it’s hard to see them performing well against one of the most talented groups of receivers in the league. Green Bay is expected to trot out LaDarious Gunter and Damarious Randall on the outside, with Micah Hyde taking main duties in the slot.
None of those players can guard Odell Beckham Jr. one-on-one or with safety help. In fact, can they even can stick to Victor Cruz or Sterling Shepard?
A breakout game for the offense in freezing temperatures like those expected Sunday, seems unlikely, but against a secondary as bad as the Packers, it’s entirely possible.
X-Factor: Paul Perkins
When the Giants played the Packers in week five, their running game was a mess. It did not improve substantially in the coming weeks, but it seems that in the final month of the season, New York has finally found their pecking order at running back.
And the man at the top is none other than rookie, Paul Perkins.
While Perkins has seen limited time throughout the season, he finally had his breakout game against the Washington Redskins last week. After seeing his workload increased, Perkins exploded for 102 yards on 21 carries in week 17.
He improved his per-carry average to 4.1 yards on the season, and with game-time temperatures expected to drop into the single digits, the run game should be a major focus for both teams. If Perkins can build on his strong performance from last week, he could bring the balance to the Giants offense that New York has looked for all season.
Prediction: Giants 20, Packers 13
Expect this game to be a low-scoring affair, which will hugely benefit the Giants.
The Packers late-season win streak has been predicated on stellar offensive performances, which will be extremely hard to replicate in below freezing temperatures in Green Bay Sunday night.
Conversely, the Giants game has been built on big plays, time of possession, and extremely stout defense; which is the blueprint for winning cold-weather games. Additionally, the veteran leadership on the Giants from Jonathan Casillas, Manning and others, will help alleviate the team’s nerves in front of a very hostile Lambeau Field crowd.
In a dome, or in warm weather, this matchup undoubtedly favors iGreen Bay. But on the frozen tundra, this game will go to the road team, moving the Giants on to the Divisional round.