What should New York Jets fans expect from newly-signed running back Matt Forte during his first season with Gang Green?
With OTAs wrapping up and mandatory minicamp fast approaching, it’s time to set our sights on the 2016 season.That means it’s time to take a look into the crystal ball and make some statistical projections for the New York Jets. Each article will feature a breakdown of one key Jets offensive or defensive player.
My analysis will include a look at where the player is trending, the extenuating circumstances such as positional depth and a gauge of potential usage in 2016.
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This series begins with New York’s biggest offseason signee, running back Matt Forte.
The 30-year-old tailback joins Gang Green after spending eight seasons as the do-it-all back for the Chicago Bears. He signed a three-year deal worth $12 million and $9 million in total guarantees after the Bears pretty much let him walk out the door this offseason.
Forte will add a different dimension out of the backfield compared to years past, but will his high mileage plus injury susceptibility diminish his production in 2016?
Note: These projections are made with the current roster in mind. AKA: Geno Smith as the presumptive starting quarterback.
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High Production Means High Mileage
Forte has been one of the best three-down running backs in the league since 2010 and comes to New York with 8,602 career rushing yards and 4,116 career receiving yards. But that impressive production stems from a ton of usage during his tenure in Chicago.
The two-time Pro Bowler was often all the Bears had in its weaponry. He’s fourth among active players with 2,522 touches throughout his career. In 2015, that heavy usage caught up with Forte, as he missed three games after sustaining a sprained MCL midway through the 2015 season. Prior to that, Forte had only missed one game since 2012.
Forte has been dinged up throughout his career, but has been able to play through it in the past. But now on the downside of 30, durability could be a concern for offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s new toy.
Don’t Forget About Bilal
One big question the Jets will have to answer is how they divide the reps between Forte and Bilal Powell, who has a comparable skill set to Forte and was so vital during New York’s strong finish last season that he was an offseason priority, signing a three-year deal worth $11.25 million with $6 million in total guarantees.
The Jets are paying Powell comparable money to Forte, which suggests this could be more of a tandem than assumed. Powell rushed for 313 yards and added 388 receiving yards and three total touchdowns in 11 games last season. Powell also battled an ankle injury throughout the year and his absence during New York’s Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills might have made a substantial difference.
The Jets clearly like Powell, enough to throw him low-end starter money. He’s only 27 and has only garnered approximately one-fifth of Forte’s career touches throughout his five-year career.
We will project Powell’s statistics later, but the important point is don’t be surprised if Powell factors into the offense more in 2016. Add in Khiry Robinson as a change of pace, short-yardage pounder and Forte’s touches could be diminished.
Is A Decline Imminent?
The stigma on running backs older than 30 is blatantly obvious: Many running backs fall off a cliff from a production standpoint on the downside of the big 3-0.
Forte’s numbers last season could indicate a similar decline is looming. Forte rushed for a career-low 898 yards and caught only 44 passes, which is tied for a career-low, in 2015.
Now, it’s important to note that Forte did miss out on three games and likely could have gotten past the 1,000-yard plateau if he stayed healthy. But, Forte’s per game averages also aren’t very encouraging.
Forte’s 69.1 rushing yards per game in 2015 was the fourth-worst average of his career. His second-lowest average came in 2014, when he rushed for only 64.9 yards per game. His 29.9 receiving yards per game was also the fourth-worst average of his career.
Forte averaged 4.91 yards per touch (carries + receptions) in 2015, which was tied for the third-lowest average of his career.
The Jets might not be getting Forte as he’s about to his rock-bottom, but the statistical trends certainly aren’t indicative of an explosive season either.
Matt Forte’s 2016 Projection
230 carries, 970 yards, five rushing touchdowns, 55 receptions, 425 yards, two receiving touchdowns
These numbers wouldn’t be career lows for Forte in any category, but I believe they’re on par with where he’s trending in his career. The Jets have made a three-year investment in Forte and they would be foolish to assume he can hold up under similar usage to his time in Chicago.
Powell will factor more into the offense this season and it’s also important to mention that New York’s offensive line could be a mess in 2016, as the Jets did next to nothing to improve the unit other than trading for the injury-plagued Ryan Clady.
This projection also leaves plenty of upside in the receiving department, as New York’s potentially porous offensive line could lead to more check downs in the passing game.
The Jets probably aren’t getting the Forte of old, but they should get a respectable season out of the aging halfback.