The long offseason is finally over and the New York Jets have a new regime running things. What’s the outlook like for the 2015 NFL season?
By Robby Sabo
The new regime of general manager Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles accepted the talented gift that was Leonard Williams with open arms. Previous Jets teams would’ve passed on the big fellow and rationalized passing up on the most talented guy in the pool by way of “positional need.”
Not these Jets. This suddenly smooth-running organization knew when something special was staring at them in the No. 6 hole in the NFL draft.
The Williams selection was just the cherry on top of the entire offseason. One that saw Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie come back to town; Buster Skrine add on to the cornerback of riches; David Harris re-sign; the addition of Super Bowl champion offensive lineman James Carpenter; and last but certainly not least, the acquisition of All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Marshall.
This regime proved to be the polar-opposite of the previous one. Bowles represented the no-nonsense coach while Rex Ryan let the asylum run the facility. Maccagnan moved and shaked his way through the offseason while John Idzik did his best to not sign deals.
All was warm and fuzzy in Jets land. That was, until, Sheldon Richardson and Geno Smith happened.
Richardson was suspended four games by the NFL due to multiple failed drug tests for marijuana. Expected starting quarterback, Geno Smith, was knocked out in the locker room by teammate IK Enemkpali. To top it off, Richardson hit the headlines again for his evading police among other charges in his hometown in Missouri.
[mc4wp_form id=”11262″]The circus that is the Jets was back.
And unfortunately, for the organization, that sentiment will forever be firmly planted in the minds of all football fans until they start to win games. On September 13 against the Cleveland Browns, they’ll receive their first crack to change public perception.
Here is the 2015 preview and predictions installment on the New York Jets:
Offense
- QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Geno Smith
- RB: Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, Zac Stacy
- FB: Tommy Bohanon
- WR1: Brandon Marshall, Chris Owusu, Quincy Enunwa
- WR2: Eric Decker, Jeremy Kerley, Devin Smith
- TE: Jeff Cumberland, Kellen Davis
- LT: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Ben Ijalana
- LG: James Carpenter, Jarvis Harrison
- C: Nick Mangold, Dakota Dozier
- RG: Willie Colon, Brian Winters
- RT: Breno Giacomini, Brent Qvale
Reserves: Jace Amaro, TE (IR), Zach Sudfeld, TE (IR), Stevan Ridley, RB (PUP), Oday Aboushi, T (SUS)
Practice Squad: Walter Powell (WR), Wes Saxton (TE), Deion Barnes (OL), Wesley Johnson (OG)
Roster Analysis:
It’s interesting that Bowles and Maccagnan opted to only keep two tight-ends on the roster. Furthermore, keeping 10 offensive lineman is almost unheard of these days. Usually eight gets the job done. This is especially strange considering Oday Aboushi is only suspended for the first game of the season.
What it tells us is Gailey will be employing a ton of three, four wide receiver sets. While you may have the “ground and pound” mantra still stuck in your head for 2015, the spread version of “ground and pound” is what you’ll see.
Season Analysis:
While the preseason sported a pretty solid 3-1 record for the New York Jets, very little could be taken out of it from an offensive standpoint.
We all thought this was going to be Geno Smith’s show. Due to Ryan Fitzpatrick taking the helm directly prior to the first preseason game, expectations needed to be tempered. The running game looked solid and Chan Gailey’s usually short-passes were on full display.
In Game 3 against the New York Giants, Fitzpatrick looked solid. He hit Eric Decker for a touchdown on a post on poor safety play from the opposition.
This unit’s success or failures will hinge on the offensive line.
Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson have been phenomenal pros. Since coming into the league via Eric Mangini and Mike Tannenbaum in 2006, both guys have provided stability to one of the Jets better units over the last decade.
However, both guys are also now 31-year of age. If either falters in their latter years, the Jets could kiss the 2015 season goodbye.
James Carpenter was perhaps the most underrated signing of the offseason. He’ll bring instant championship-caliber stability at one of the guard spots, coming from the Seattle Seahawks. The right side of the line will remain shaky with Breno Giacomini and Willie Colon. A stepup from either Jarvis Harrison, Oday Aboushi or Brian Winters might be needed before all is said and done.
The big heavies will be blocking for Chris Ivory, a man who’s coming off an 821-yard, 6 TD season. Along with Zac Stacy and Bilal Powell, the backs are solid enough to win.
The worst news of the preseason, other than the locker room sucker-punch heard round the world, was the injury to second-year tight-end Jace Amaro. Amaro will miss the entire year leaving New York very thin at the position.
Acquiring Brandon Marshall was a fantastic move from Mike Maccagnan. Pairing him up with Eric Decker on the outside now gives the Jets two spectacular possession guys who can go up and get it.
The one issue this skill position grouping will face all season long is their lack of top-flight speed. While Marshall and Decker present a dynamic duo along the outside, neither guy is a burner. The same can be said for slot-man Jeremy Kerley, who’s very quick and agile but can’t haul in the ball on that deep patter.
Player to Watch:
This is where rookie Devin Smith was supposed to come in, but where major surprise Chris Owusu might come in.
Enunwa turned heads all training camp long. He’s a guy you’ll see wearing No. 17 on Sunday and does a little bit of everything. He can run routes, play the outside, operate form the slot, and even take a hand-off or two. His further development for this offense will be critical in possibly transforming them into an above-average unit.
Most Important Player:
In the end though, the NFL is a quarterback league, and Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Geno Smith will have to get it done. It’s unfortunate that the rules play so much to the position these days, but that’s the reality we live in.
Not only will Bowles and Gailey look to the position as the key performer, but the uncertainty that surrounds it is unsettling. We know what Fitzpatrick is. He’s a journeyman who can get the job done for an average to solid team. It fits perfectly with this squad too because of the nature of the personnel. The defense is stacked and the offense is geared towards the run.
In any event the Jets won’t become a serious contender until the quarterback spot produces at a high level. This is why it’s very enticing to see what Geno can provide upon his return.
Or, dare I say, see what Bryce Petty can possibly do later in the season. Petty, after a terrible first game in Detroit, looked very seasoned from that point on in August. There’s no question he’s still a project, but one that allows lips to be licked.
What Jets fans have to understand is this: Rex Ryan didn’t give the quarterback a chance to succeed during his time with the franchise. Instead of allowing the spot to flourish, he crippled it with fear of the turnover.
To him, as long as the offense didn’t turn the ball over, he felt the defense could win the game by itself. The NFL today doesn’t work that way.
Bowles and Gailey know this, and Fitzpatrick and/or Geno will have to produce.
Rankings Predictions:
The Jets offense can only hope to be average at best. If they want to fit into the upper-third of the NFL, they’ll need to see the offensive line come together like it did during 2009 and 2010.
- Rushing: 8th in NFL
- Passing: 23rd in NFL
- Total Yards: 17th in NFL
- Giveaways: 21st in NFL
Defense
- LDE: Muhammad Wilkerson, Stephen Bowen
- NT: Damon Harrison, T.J. Barnes, Deon Simon
- RDT: Leonard Williams, Leger Douzable
- LOLB: Calvin Pace, Trevor Reilly
- LILB: David Harris, Erin Henderson
- RILB: Demario Davis, Jamari Lattimore
- ROLB: Quinton Coples, Lorenzo Mauldin
- CB1: Darrelle Revis, Darrin Walls, Dexter McDougle
- FS: Marcus Gilchrist, Jaiquawn Jarrett
- SS: Cavlin Pryor, Ronald Martin
- CB2: Antonio Cromartie, Buster Skrine, Marcus Williams
Reserves: Sheldon Richardson (DE-SUS), Dee Milliner (CB-IR), Kevin Vickerson, (DT-IR), Antonio Allen, (SS-IR), Dashaun Phillips, (CB-IR)
Practice Squad: Julian Howsare (DE), Jordan Williams (DT), Taiwan Jones (ILB), Rontez Miles (FS), Keon Lyn (CB), Mike Catapano (DE)
Roster Analysis:
The 25-players kept by Todd Bowles and Mike Maccagnan on defense is pretty standard across the board. Keeping seven defensive lineman in a 3-4 scheme might turn out to be one too many, leaving the secondary a bit thin, but changes will certainly take place down the road.
Season Analysis:
Much like the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets defensive line is beastly. This is the case even without Sheldon Richardson. Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison and rookie Leonard Williams will be pushing interior lineman around all season long.
This is a great positive when facing Tom Brady. As everybody is well aware, the best way to attack Brady in the pocket is directly up the middle. Coming from the edge never works due to the short amount of time he has the ball in the pocket. Everything is short in that offense and it’s catch and chuck it very quickly. Not to mention when he does go to the intermediate to deep patterns, he loves to step up in the pocket.
The linebacking group up the middle is very tout with David Harris and Demario Davis. Harris is a veteran who has seemingly led the Jets in tackles for the last decade. What he lacks in pass coverage (and he does lack a ton in that regard), Davis needs to make up for.
Along the edge is where the Jets weakness lies. Guys like Quinton Coples, Calvin Pace and Lorenzo Mauldin need to produce a pass rush from the edge this season if the defense wants to contend as a top-five unit.
Having Darrelle Revis back is a gift beyond gifts for Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers. He’s not just the best corner in the league, he completely changes gameplans on Sundays.
Due to the fact he can take the offense’s best weapon out of the game completely, the over-the-top safety can focus so much more elsewhere other than helping over the top on Revis’s side. It’s a skill-set that changes the way defenses play to an incredible degree.
The question of how much Antonio Cromartie has left at 31-years old is a real one. Should he falter though, another newly-acquired guy in Buster Skrine, 2014 surprise Marcus Williams, or second-year Dexter McDougle would fill in nicely.
Cavlin Pryor will have no excuses in 2015. Now that Marcus Gilchrist has deep third responsibilities, Pryor will now be in his regular strong safety spot. In the box playing run support and robbing underneath and in the flats is where Pryor belongs.
Player to Watch:
Like previously mentioned, edge play on this defense will be ultra critical. Lorenzo Mauldin, a third-round pick from Louisville, could be that wild card this unit needs to push themselves to No. 1 in the league.
Although veteran Calvin Pace is still starting at outside backer, he is nowhere near starting caliber anymore. Mauldin will need to step in and take that role over. Being just a situational pass-rusher won’t be good enough.
Most Important Player:
There’s no question who the most important player on the defense is. It’s Darrelle Revis.
He changes games based on his mere presence. Now that he’s 30-years old and has lost a step or two by way of straight-line speed, the question of whether he’ll move from stud to very good will be there. Still, he’s still playing at a level for which Bowles will have Gilchrist doing things from the free safety spot you just can’t do unless you have a Revis on your team.
Rankings Predictions:
Barring injuries this unit will be good. They’ll be one of the best in the league. With that interior defensive line it’ll be incredibly hard to run against them. With Revis back in the fold, half the field gets taken away in the pass game.
- Rushing Defense: 3rd in NFL
- Passing Defense: 5th in NFL
- Total Yards Allowed: 2nd in NFL
- Takaways: 7th in NFL
Special Teams
- K: Nick Folk
- P: Ryan Quigley
- LS: Tanner Purdum
- KR: Chris Owusu, Zac Stacy
- PR: Jeremy Kerley
Perhaps the best Jets player in 2014 was kicker Nick Folk. Hitting 32-of-39 field goals on the season, Folk was a bright spot in one of the darker seasons in recent memory.
The punting situation still remains questionable with Ryan Quigley. Tanner Purdum has been a mainstay as the long-snapper since 2010.
The one real negative about the Jets offensive weapons will remain speed. The lack of elusiveness rears its ugly head when thinking about punt and kick returners. Guys like Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and Chris Ivory are good players, but they’re all the same type of player: Big and possession like.
The Jets will heavily rely on Chris Owusu in the kick return game and Jeremy Kerley with punts.
Coaching, Front Office
- GM: Mike Maccagnan
- HC: Todd Bowles
- OC: Chan Gailey
- DC: Kacy Rodgers
- ST: Bobby April
One of the side stories about the hiring of Mike Maccaganan and Todd Bowles this past offseason touched on their upbringing as local guys. Both are from Northern New Jersey, and both seem to be on point with each other.
It could turn out to be a partnership that flourishes for many years to come.
Maccagnan is smart though. He understands success will hinge on finding that franchise quarterback next offseason. That’s why he also understands 2015 will be served as a buffer season. One where Bowles gets comfortable in his new role and the team looks to gel together.
The hiring of Chan Gailey raised a few eyebrows around the league, but once Ryan Fitzpatrick was forced into the starting role many people understood the Gailey hiring could now work as a blessing in disguised based on their past together.
The coaching staff is obviously a group with a lot to prove. A very natural thing when it comes to employing a rookie head coach.
Predictions, Schedule
AFC East
- New England Patriots (10-6)
- New York Jets (9-7)
- Buffalo Bills (7-9)
- Miami Dolphins (7-9)
If the Jets want to get to nine wins they’ll only have to go 3-3 in their division. The reason is strictly due to the weak out of division schedule they’re staring at. The Raiders, Jags, Titans, Redskins? This schedule is nothing scary.
Strength of schedule and the idea that the defense will be dominant is why I have Gang Green making the playoffs as a Wild Card.
It’s impossible to pick anybody other than the New England Patriots to win the division. Until it’s witnessed, it’s a stupid move to pick it. However, that doesn’t mean the loss of Revis, especially, won’t really hurt their chances and force them from a 12 or 13 win team down to 10 wins.
Right now everybody has the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills edging the Jets by a bit in the division. Be careful there. This Jets defense is every bit, if not better, than those defenses.
Playoffs
I see the Jets possibly sneaking out a Wild Card win on the road in the first round or losing a tough one. The absolute best they can do in 2015 is getting to the Divisional Round.
Competition for a Wild Card spot will come from the Houston Texans, the loser in the West between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos, and perhaps the Pittsburgh Steelers (although I don’t think they’ll have enough talent in the secondary this season).
Should they make the playoffs, it’ll be a huge positive for the franchise heading into an offseason where they’ll look to Maccagnan to snag himself a franchise quarterback.
Schedule
- vs Cleveland Browns – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Sep. 13 (WIN)
- @ Indianapolis Colts – 8:30 PM ET, Monday, Sep. 21 (LOSS)
- vs Philadelphia Eagles – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Sep. 27 (LOSS)
- @ Miami Dolphins – 9:30 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 4 (WIN)
- BYE
- vs Washington Redskins – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 18 (WIN)
- @ New England Patriots – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Oct. 25 (LOSS)
- @ Oakland Raiders – 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 1 (WIN)
- vs Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 8 (WIN)
- vs Buffalo Bills – 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, Nov. 12 (WIN)
- @ Houston Texans – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 22 (LOSS)
- vs Miami Dolphins – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Nov. 29 (LOSS)
- @ New York Giants – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 6 (WIN)
- vs Tennessee Titans – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 13 (WIN)
- @ Dallas Cowboys – 8:25 PM ET, Saturday, Dec. 19 (LOSS)
- vs New England Patriots – 1 PM ET, Sunday Dec. 28 (LOSS)
- @ Buffalo Bills – 1 PM ET, Sunday, Dec. 3 (WIN)