With Spring Training just over a month away, ESNY will break down the early stat projections for the 2017 New York Yankees.
The Super Bowl may be approaching, but Opening Day 2017 is also right around the corner and that brings us to the most frequently asked question by baseball fans:“How is my team going to do this season?”
For the New York Yankees‘ fans of the world, we’ll break down FanGraph’s 2017 ZiPS projections for the Bombers.
These projections come from a system developed by ESPN’s Dan Szymborski, which uses growth and decline curves based on the player type to find trends.
In order to supplement for their questionable rotation, this lineup will have to do much better than rank 23rd in WAR, 20th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 19th in home runs and second-to-last in average with runners in scoring position in order to avoid another Yankee-less postseason.
Will the lineup hold up and contribute the way they need to? ESNY breaks down the ZiPS projections for the 2017 Yankees’ offense using the up-to-date roster.
Brett Gardner
- PA: 587
- AVG: .254
- HR: 11
- OBP: .336
- R: 76
- SB: 15
- RBI: 50
One of the aspects of Brett Gardner’s game that has regularly shown up was his ability to get on base.
In 2016, he maintained the third highest of his career (.351) but did finish with a career-low in OPS (.713) and stolen bases (.713)— not considering his minimal appearances in ’08 and ’12.
As the calendar turns and Gardner approaches age 34, FanGraphs projects him to decline to career-lows in batting average, runs scored, OBP and stolen bases — a devastating occurrence.
If this projection turns out to be true, then New York — instead of getting value in a deal now — may have to settle for a petty return if they want to shave what’s left of his $52 million contract as his value wouldn’t be any higher than it is now.
This downfall in what seems to be his greatest ability could also pave the way fro the highly touted Clint Frazier — depending on how he fairs in a full year of Triple-A.
Last season, he slashed a mere .228/.335/.447 but his skills are freakishly abnormal (in a good way) and he should have a legitimate shot at a call-up if Gardner has this type of year.
Jacoby Ellsbury
- PA: 561
- AVG: .263
- HR: 9
- OBP: .322
- SB: 23
- RBI: 51
Yes, folks, the Yankees are paying $153 million over seven years for a former All-Star in Jacoby Ellsbury who is now a shell of himself.
Despite being the X-Factor in 2017, doesn’t mean he’ll be so in a positive way and FanGraphs sees little improvement from the inconsistent 33-year old.
Ellsbury is projected to sport a .322 OBP which would be the worst of his career among his full seasons in the bigs. That same number already declined by 24 since his days in Boston, and won’t get any better anytime soon.
Following next season, he’ll have just over $63 million of guaranteed money until 2020 and unless he could turn an infrequent hot-streak thrown in the mix into persistence, it’s going to be a long three years.
Gary Sanchez
- PA: 499
- AVG: .255
- HR: 27
- OBP: .313
- SLG%: .490
- RBI: 82
Gary Sanchez has become “must-watch” TV and is the most anticipated Yankee of 2017.
We’ve heard it all: next Babe Ruth, the Yankees “savior,” and more. It’s justifiable, as we’ve really never seen anything like his first year in major league baseball, but these expectations must tamper.
No one in their right mind should expect him to smack the 60-plus home runs he was on pace or put up record-breaking numbers. It’s foolish.
But he certainly displayed a professional approach with incredible power that should translate well over the course of 162 games.
27 home runs and 82 RBIs? Judging by the fact that the traded Carlos Beltran led the team with 22 home runs and Didi Gregorius led the RBI category (70), manager Joe Girardi would unquestionably take it.
Greg Bird
- PA: 397
- AVG: .234
- HR: 18
- OBP: .307
- SLG%:
- RBI: 57
Going off of the mere 397 plate appearances, FanGraphs is pointing at perhaps an injury or — inferring by his .234 average — perhaps Greg Bird failed at earning his spot back.
In 2015, Bird’s first taste of the majors, he slashed .261/.343/.529 with 11 home runs in 46 games — a total of 38 when proportioned to a full season.
Heading into his second season, however, he opted to operate on a torn right labrum that would keep him sidelined for a full season.
Returning to action in the Arizona Fall League just a couple months ago, Bird slashed .215/.346/.364 with only one home run and four doubles in 17 games.
These numbers aren’t what I expect, but it won’t be surprising. A torn labrum is a serious injury and notwithstanding the fact that he’s feeling strong, there may be some lingering fatigue — especially in the beginning of the year.
Matt Holliday
- PA: 329
- AVG: .244
- HR: 14
- OBP: .325
- SLG%: .447
- RBI: 52
The former National League batting champ is simply not the player he was.
Matt Holliday has played in just 183 games over the last two years with just 703 plate appearances and his early projection has him making fewer appearances than in 2016 — a year in which the 36-year old fractured his thumb.
So, while Cashman inked his newest designated hitter on a deal that doesn’t hinder the youth movement but could provide some output (20 home runs last season), staying healthy is a major concern.
Didi Gregorius
- PA: 586
- AVG: .262
- HR: 15
- OBP: .308
- SLG%: .404
- RBI: 63
Didi Gregorius had a career year in 2016, his second year in the Bronx.
The shortstop climbed to career-highs in home runs (20), hits (155), RBIs (70) and doubles (32) while leading the team with 54 extra-base hits.
He also became just the third shortstop Yankees’ history to hit at least 20 HR and bat over .275. The only other two other two were Tom Tresh in 1962 and Derek Jeter in 1999, 2001 and 2004.
Despite having room to grow at just 26-years old, ZiPS is being a little ungracious as they’re calling for a decline in every category with the exception of on-base percentage — which still needs to get a little higher.
So, while Didi is working to replicate his career year, it’s being projected that we’ll see a repeat of his first season in New York with just a tad more pop.
Starlin Castro
- PA: 624
- AVG: .272
- HR: 18
- OBP: .305
- SLG%: .419
- RBI: 78
While this isn’t the Starlin Castro of 2011 or anything close to Robinson Cano, his projection for 2017 is still lightyears ahead of what they had in between the two natives of the Dominican Republic (Brian Roberts and Stephen Drew).
With a career-high 21 home runs in his first year sporting Yankee pinstripes, the Dominican-born righty became one of just four Yankees’ second baseman to hit 20 home runs in a single season, joining Cano, Joe Gordon and Alfonso Soriano.
No, he’s not projected to hit that mark in 2017, but his 78 RBIs will be the most from the position since 2014 while his home runs will be second to none other than himself.
Again, not going to overwhelm the opposition nor be an All-Star (apparently) but he will make an impact and if he could avoid swinging at pitches in the left-hander’s batter’s box, New York won’t be disappointed by his output.
Aaron Judge
- PA: 522
- AVG: .229
- HR: 30
- OBP: .301
- SLG%: .473
- RBI: 83
After struggling in his first go-around in the majors, seeing 30 home runs from Aaron Judge is a promising sight for fans.
Last season, the 6-foot-8 mammoth struck out in precisely half of his at-bats while hitting a mere .179 in 27 games. If you’re expecting a turnaround, don’t expect the strikeouts to disappear.
FanGraphs, in addition to a mere .229 batting average, is projecting Judge to finish 2017 with a 34.3% strikeout rate. Since 2010, only Chris Carter (2013) and Mark Reynolds (2010) had higher rates but at least it’s much greater than the 50% he maintained in his first cup of coffee.
After all, we’ve had Judge in the organization since 2013 and know what kind of a player he is. A guy who will hit 25-30 home runs while also striking out a lot.
In his three-year minor league career, the 24-year old hit 64 home runs in 399 games but also went down on strikes 437. Know what you have, and know that’s what you’ll get.
Chase Headley
- PA: 531
- AVG: .247
- HR: 13
- OBP: .324
- SLG%: .376
- RBI: 54
Not the guy everyone hoped he’d be when he inked a four-year, $52 million contract before the 2015 season, ZiPS calls for Chase Headley’s worst year as a Yankee.
The projected .247 batting average, .324 OBP and .376 SLG% would all be lower than his average in the Bronx while his 13 home run total isn’t your preferred number coming from a third baseman.
Headley, 32, slashed .253/.331/.385 overall in 2016 which is arguably mediocre, but impressed at the hot corner with seven defensive runs saved, good enough for fifth-best in the AL.
Dealing with an unappealing offensive year but have his defensive abilities make up for it may motivate the Yankees to wait out the remaining two years of his contract and splurge on Manny Machado. If his distasteful output gets intolerable, however, the rebuilding Yankees may have no choice but to shave his contract and make room for a kid.