New York Knicks 2016-17 Possible Rotation Looks; Minutes Projections

There is literally no better time than now to dissect what Jeff Hornacek‘s New York Knicks rotation will look like come October of 2016.

Starting Lineup

Come on now. The starting lineup is a no brainer.

Based on the recent happenings of the NBA offseason, there is only one starting lineup for the 2016-17 New York Knicks.

The squad isn’t deep, but has an extremely formidable starting five. They seem to fit well together on paper while looking tremendous from afar. The only question will surround whether or not they actually live it out in harmony on the court.

Now that the starting five is out of the way, let’s get on to the first substitutions:

Next: First Substitutions

End1st, Start-Mid 2nd

5: Kristaps Porzingis
4: Lance Thomas
3: Carmelo Anthony / Courtney Lee
2: Derrick Rose
1: Brandon Jennings

Two bench players on these Knickerbockers stand out far above the rest. One is named Brandon Jennings and the other Lance Thomas. These will be the two first off the bench.

Who they replace will be the big question.

Considering what Jeff Hornacek wants to do with his uptempo system, the first substitution in the first quarter should center around taking Joakim Noah out and shifting Kristaps Porzingis to the center spot. It’d give either Lance Thomas or Carmelo Anthony power forward abilities.

Furthermore, Derrick Rose will move to the two when Jennings comes into the game. Not only does it makes sense from a body point of view (as Rose is two inches taller), but Rose has and can play the off-guard. In this rotation, he will quite frequently.

The first substitution will take advantage of Melo and KP playing together.

2nd Unit

At some point, mainly the first half of the second quarter, the second unit will roll deep. It’s an interesting crop that can score, but lacks serious defensive ability.

The question will surround which starter or two plays with the second unit and who wins the two guard spot between Justin Holiday and Sasha Vujacic and who takes the backup bigs spots between Willy Hernangomez, Marshall Plumlee, and Kyle O’Quinn.

Mindaugas Kuzminskas is a 6’9” scorer who can play both forward spots. His availability in year one stateside will be interesting and important.

Next: 2nd Half Looks

Midway Through 3rd

5: Joakim Noah
4: Kristaps Porzingis
3: Lance Thomas
2: Derrick Rose / Courtney Lee
1: Brandon Jennings

Obviously – unless Hornacek is out of his mind – the starters will begin the second half. The tradition first substitution should be expected near the tradition halfway point of the third quarter.

Here’s where Hornacek might split up Porzingis and Melo.

Look for the Knicks to take advantage of a smaller lineup in the third quarter by resting Melo and shifting KP to the center spot.

End 3rd, Start-Mid 4th

5: Willy Hernangomez / Kyle O’Quinn / Marshall Plumlee
4: Lance Thomas / Mindaugas Kuzminskas
3: Carmelo Anthony / Courtney Lee
2: Justin Holiday / Sasha Vujacic
1: Brandon Jennings

While this time isn’t solely reserved for the second unit, it’s a critical juncture that sees bench players provide the crunch time guys with one last blow.

This is the time the hot player off the bench collects his extra minutes. The rotation at this point could literally be anybody or anything.

Melo would traditionally come back in around the eight or nine minute mark for the duration of the contest.

Next: Crunch Time

Crunch Time

5: Joakim Noah
4: Kristaps Porzingis
3: Carmelo Anthony
2: Courtney Lee
1: Derrick Rose

Sure, the standard crunch time lineup will resemble the starters. It’s not rocket science, especially with this grouping.

Small Lineup

5: Kristaps Porzingis
4: Carmelo Anthony
3: Courtney Lee
2: Derrick Rose
1: Brandon Jennings

Here’s the lineup that’ll rival the standard starting five on many nights. If Brandon Jennings is clicking and Hornacek wants to take advantage of a small and versatile personnel grouping, he’ll place B-Jenn at the one, sub out Noah, and shift everybody up a spot.

It’s a lineup that can do serious damage. If Hornacek doesn’t want to take Noah out, Melo can stay at the three, Rose can shift to the two, and Lee can sit on the bench for much more of an offensive look.

Defensive Lineup

5: Joakim Noah
4: Kristaps Porzingis
3: Lance Thomas
2: Courtney Lee
1: Brandon Jennings

The two weak defensive links in the Knicks starting five are Anthony and Rose. Admittedly, Jennings isn’t a terrific defender, but should the Knicks want to go with their best defensive crop without losing too much offensively, this would be it.

This lineup would hardly every happen, aside from the critical possessions at the end of games when offense isn’t a factor.

Next: Minutes Projections

Minutes Projections

Kristaps Porzingis: 36-40 MPG
Carmelo Anthony: 36-40 MPG
Courtney Lee: 30-34 MPG
Derrick Rose: 28-32 MPG
Joakim Noah: 28-32 MPG
Brandon Jennings: 24-28 MPG
Lance Thomas: 20-24 MPG
Willy Hernangomez / Marshall Plumlee: 12-20 MPG
Justin Holiday / Sasha Vujacic: 12-20 MPG
Mindaugas Kuzminskas / Kyle O’Quinn: 4-10 MPG

Kristaps Porzingis averaged just 28.4 minutes a night during his rookie campaign under Derek Fisher and Kurt Rambis. This 28.4 number must change for his sophomore season.

KP hit a rookie roadblock and simply couldn’t log heavy minutes – despite how much he deserved to play. If Porzingis isn’t leading the Knicks in minutes in 2016-17, there’s a serious problem.

It would behoove New York to make sure Melo isn’t over 36 minutes on average. Again, the same can be said for the oft-injured D-Rose to a 32 minute level.

The key with this team will come beyond the No. 7 guy. Who will be the eighth and ninth players on the roster who step up to a tremendous degree?