Ten games is enough early feedback to tell us where the 2015-16 New York Rangers squad is excelling, faltering and/or holding the line.
By Nick Adams
A year ago, the New York Rangers were 5-4-1 with 11 points after 10 games. Henrik Lundqvist had given up six goals twice in consecutive losses early and, per usual, the “Chicken Littles” of Rangerstown were running around bumping into each other, looking for their helmets and safe place to hide from chunks of falling sky.
A year removed, the Rangers are 6-2-2 (H: 4-1-1; A: 2-1-1) after being the first NHL team to hit the 10-game waypoint. Only the molten-hot Montreal Canadiens (9-0-0) are ahead of them for the league lead in points.
So far, this team has been explosive, then flat. They’ve been dominant, then timid. They’ve been slammed around, but managed to out-skate and out-score opponents. They’ve had a three game win streak dashed by a three-game losing streak, seen a backup goalie not named “Cam” break that slump and despite having now thrown ~$7.4MM/yr at supposed “PP QBs,” the power play is no closer to being improved than is U.S. healthcare. Larry Brooks used the right word – it’s “confounding,”
Overall, early returns are positive, but enthusiasm about the team’s prospects ought to be tempered: there are clearly some dead spots that need attention, or a jump start.
Rookie forward Oscar Lindberg isn’t one of the dead spots. Lindberg is in a three-way tie with Anthony Duclair and Conor McDavid for the NHL lead in rookie goals (5) while Rick Nash (1G/2A -2) is the only player on the team with a negative +/- rating. The defense’s biggest contributions so far have been offensive (5G/11A/16P), but their overall submission can thus far be characterized as disjointed and sluggish. The biggest bright spot has been between the pipes, which is refreshing given Henrik Lundqvist’s penchant for slow starts.
Admittedly, ten games in is a little early to be doing a “Report Card” piece, but it represents enough data to provide early feedback on this season’s squad and tell us where the team is excelling, faltering, or holding the line. Besides, if Rangers head coach Alain Vigneault can look at a season in 8-10 game segments, why can’t we?
OFFENSE: C+/B-. Undeniably unreliable, but improving.
This team can score goals in bunches. Currently ranked third in the league in goals-for (30), the offense has proven its potency when it hasn’t been completely shut down. Unbridled elation was rampant following an outburst of three goals in 1:17 against the Columbus Blue Jackets, breaking open what had been a tense, tight match and spoiling the Jackets’ home opener. It was electrifying. In fact, it was so electrifying that it helped jump-start the battery that powers the John Tortorella hotline.
What is the opposite of “electrifying” following such a display? Proceeding to score a paltry three goals over the next combined 1:84:27 of play. The Rangers only lost three straight games once last season and I doubt we’ll see it again this season. I hope not. That was painful. Chalk it up to early season line-juggling (please put Kreider and Stepan together again) and having to face Carey Price and Corey Schneider consecutively, if you wish. Losing at Le Centre Bell to Price is an unpalatable, but understandable loss. Losing at MSG to the lowly Devils by the hand of none other than former Ranger mumps vector Lee Stempniak is just…not. So yes, the Rangers can score in bunches, but they can just as quickly enter a scoring void. That kind of variation is not a good sign and there needs to be a player or two who take it upon themselves to step up and do something about it when it sets in.
The top two lines have been spottily effective, at best. Mats Zuccarello has shown that he is back and ready to play hockey, Derick Brassard has rounded into form quickly and could be looking at a brand-making season. Derek Stepan has been creative and productive, but sans Chris Kreider on his left, something is missing. Kreider isn’t above criticism here by any means. He’s in a contract year and that alone should be driving him to be lethal. So far, he’s looked more like one of those Instagram parodies of himself than a 20+G/40+Pt offensive weapon.
Barring Zuccarello’s goals, the top line has been “Invisi-line.” As stated, Rick Nash’s -2 rating makes him the only Rangers player to be on the wrong side of neutral in that stat. No matter your feelings on how useful +/- really is, his Kool-Aid drinking supporters are apt to prattle on about how well he does everything, including playing defense and killing penalties. He does to those things very well, but Nash is expected to be one of the premiere scoring forwards in the league. He is paid based on that expectation and he has demonstrated that he can be exceptional over sustained stretches year-over-year. When that is possible, it throws into stark contrast those times when it isn’t happening and right now, Nash is burgling turds. He oughtta go as the Hamburglar for Halloween this year. He is THE primary offensive threat the Rangers present to opposing defenses and if this offense is going to power past some pretty stiff divisional competition, Nash cannot get by on being a good back-checker and an effective penalty killer.
Rick Nash absolutely must score and score often. If you are reading this and you know Mr. Nash, call him, text him, email him, “hit him up, yo,” do whatever you need to do to let him know that the bland, stoic “I’m doing everything I can out there” act is staid, that we’re done with it and that he is really going to start hearing it from the happy people of New York pretty soon. He needs to be better, end of story.
The “up note” here that balances out that scathing indictment resides with the third line: Oscar Lindberg and the third line have been outstanding. Lindberg came out torrid, potting four goals in the first three games of the season. His latest tally came off a deftly delivered feed from behind the net, served up backhanded by soft-handed Kevin Hayes.
It seems whoever lines up with Lindberg the Grouch finds success. Forwards Viktor Stalberg, Kevin Hayes and JT Miller all have points from assists on Lindberg goals and they all have goals of their own. Head coach Alain Vigneault (AV) wants four offensively productive lines stocked with fast, smart, versatile forwards and the third has been the model for that vision. They are young and fun to watch.
The fourth line has been workmanlike, efficient and mostly effective. Dominic Moore remains the weathered anchor of that unit, joined by Jarret Stoll and a rotating cast of wingers. Depending on where AV slots Jesper Fast, Emerson Etem is likely going to see more fourth line minutes in the wake of Tanner Glass’ assignment to Hartford. That’s a good thing. Etem is considered by some to be top-six capable, but needs regular minutes of exposure to prove it. He picked up his first point by way of an assist on Kevin Klein’s goal after getting robbed point-blank Sunday night on his only shot in 11:56 of ice time.
Oh, and a note on face-offs: Jarret Stoll has won 21/26 drops, which equates to a .656FOW% The Rangers finished 28th in the NHL last season with a team FOW rate of 46.7%. Their current league position: seventh (52.0%).
The takeaway is that the talent, experience, speed and scoring are there amongst the forwards. The Rangers are slightly above league average (2.7GPG) right now at 2.8GPG. Expect that figure to improve going forward. How much and how quickly it improves depends a lot on Nash, Kreider, Miller and Hayes.
DEFENSE: C+. Deniably reliable. Will improve gradually to what we are used to seeing.
No one player in particular is holding the defense back, but it has been collectively sluggish out of the gate. AV has adjusted his pairings to stimulate some results-oriented chemistry within his vaunted defensive corps, but when 37% of the team’s cap hit is tied up, they have to be better. The defense have also contributed a collective 5G/16A per the score sheet, so that unit as a whole remains a viable threat when the puck is in the offensive zone, but they have also coughed up some untimely turnovers leading to goals.
Dan Girardi, who at 31 has 769 NHL starts to his credit since joining the big club in 2006-07 has been demoted to the 2nd pairing alongside Keith Yandle. Girardi, like Marc Staal and Ryan McDonagh, is rebounding from an off-season surgery which hampered his preparation season. Vigneault has been uncharacteristically vocal about individual players so far this season and was very clear about why the adjustment happened, saying on Friday “Kevin was playing so much better than Dan, we just made that switch.” (A. Gross)
Dan Girardi’s tally Sunday night proved to be the game-winning goal (in addition to his 200th career point) and Kevin Klein’s marker (2G) gave the team some breathing room. Keith Yandle has six points through ten games and has been a responsible defender.
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For all the flak he catches, Dan Boyle has not been that bad. He’s clearly overpaid due to a bad contract, but we can’t expect much out of a guy who has been playing since Dominik Hasek won a Hart Trophy. Blame his presence on the management and look for some of the good things he’s trying to do out there. It might help take your mind of the fact that Ryan McDonagh’s been invisible.
Last season, former Norris Trophy candidate Ryan McDonagh had a hall pass for a down year. He was A) recovering from a particularly nasty shoulder injury, and; B) proving he had the chops to bear that prominent red capital “C” on his sweater. That’s a big role for a young player, but McDonagh has distinguished himself on and off the ice as someone worthy of the privilege of leadership in that room. Now, it’s time to get back to the business of being a top-10 NHL defenseman and to lead by doing. When #27 is fully “on” and playing his complete game at full speed, his play lift Madison Square Garden off its foundations. He needs to be a bull in the ring this year, I suspect he knows it and that he’ll step it up, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Primary areas of concern with this group are: collective wear and tear after repeated seasons of deep playoff runs, two turnover-prone offensive defensemen in Boyle and Yandle and a lack of trustworthy depth. AV opted to keep former first-round draft pick (2010) Dylan McIlrath on the roster coming out of camp, which caused veteran depth defender Raphael Diaz to be assigned. Common sense should have dictated that Diaz – who is seasoned, versatile and very familiar with the Rangers from his time here in 2013-14 – be kept and McIrath waived, but the Rangers organization has invested a lot of time in “Project Undertaker” over the past five years and seem determined to make good on his selection.
Regarding the depth issue, we are likely to see movement before the end of the week. With Tanner Glass’ assignment to Hartford, the Rangers now have an available 23rd roster spot should AV decide to bring Diaz back into the fold, vice losing him to release and watching him leave for Europe. It wont be a permanent solution, but we haven’t seen the back half of the Glass move happen yet and the end of the month is coming.
The big picture takeaway at this point is that as long as McDonagh, Girardi and Staal are physically recovered, the defense should return to the top-tier form with which we are familiar. A full season (likely the only full season we will get out of him) of Keith Yandle will likely yield 40+ points and *hopefully* an improved power play – though I wouldn’t hold my breath on that. Kevin Klein? Not going anywhere. He’s too valuable and too locked in. Stop praying that Dan Boyle is going away, too. Hockey God isn’t listening.
GOALTENDING: AAA. Lights out. Phenomenal.
Give Rangers goaltending coach Benoit Allaire credit: Henrik Lunqvist came in hot, near the top of his game and Antti Raanta’s absorption into his role as the Rangers’ alternate goalie has been executed flawlessly.
Alain Vigneault made it abundantly clear that he wanted more, sooner out of the Rangers premier goaltending talent, Henrik Lundqvist and Lundqvist has delivered. Through eight starts, he has been nothing short of phenomenal, posting a .941SV% and limiting opponents to 1.98 goals-per-game (GPG). His record (4-2-2) is more reflective of the team’s hot-or-cold start than his own. The performance he turned in against Montreal on 10/15 is a prime example: Lundqvist stopped 29/31 shots against, stood tall through six Montreal power plays and repeatedly flashed what appears to be an improved glove-hand stopping breakaways and odd-man rushes all night. Montreal pushed the issue glove-side high all night – an area where Lundqvist, like many european goaltenders has been weak in the past – and he wasn’t beaten that way. Carey Price was sharper that night against a less potent Rangers offense, but Lundqvist showcased his game and it was impressive.
Five days earlier, he made what is already one of his top-five saves of the season against Columbus to preserve what was then a 3-0 NYR lead:
Lundqvist, who will turn 34 years old in March is locked in and as prepared as ever for the 2015-16 campaign, but what about his backup?
Many in Rangerstown lamented the loss of former alternate goaltendier, Cam Talbot. When a poorly translated quote regarding a lack of ice time during the Chicago Blackhawks’ Stanley Cup run last season made its way into the New York media pool, Antti Raanta (whose personality seems about as offensive as lavender hand lotion) was automatically tagged with a fond NYC welcome: “who is THIS f***in’ guy?!”
Clearly, it didn’t faze him much.
Raanta is 2-0 and rocking a .978SV% and a .50GAA. This isn’t “Ginger Skaps” McKenzie Skapski going 2-0 in back to back starts against one of the worst teams in the league, either. AV put Raanta’s feet to the fire straight off, challenging him with his first start as a Ranger on home ice against the San Jose Sharks after three straight losses with the Rangers very much in need of a win. Raanta summarily shut San Jose out, and proceeded to allow only one goal in his next start against the Calgary Flames.
Antti Raanta is here to play and he’s going to get his share of starts. This season’s schedule features 17 back-to-back sets for the Rangers – five of them coming down the middle of a brutal stretch run in March, when competition for playoff berths is as intense as it gets. Vigneault will reduce Lundqvist’s regular season workload incrementally over the next few years, so Raanta will pick up spot-starts as well as splits off the b-2-b’s. So far, it looks like Talbot’s replacement is every bit the backstop the “Goalbuster” is and has demonstrated early success in being a skid-breaker.
This tandem needs to stay strong, stay loose and keep communicating.
SPECIAL TEAMS: (Power Play: D) + (Penalty Kill: A-) = C+/B-
It’s a yin & yang balancing act with these two facets of play again this year. Ten games in and both are holding their exact same rankings compared with how each finished relative to the rest of the NHL last season.What has been noticeably missing? Short-handed goals. (SHG)
Power Play: The power play has to get better to suck. The Rangers regular season power play efficiency last year finished at 16.8% (21st) and it is currently running at a flat 16.0% (21st).
This team has thrown good money after bad in trying to one-stop-shop a solution and it simply hasn’t worked. Neither the aging Dan Boyle, nor the discounted Keith Yandle has turned out to be the answer the team has been looking for. It might be a good idea to split them up because playing those two together on the first unit has been a disaster. It looks l to me like overkill – put one of them each on a PP unit and let it run. This power play has been bad, or worse than bad for so long, the team has just learned to succeed without it.
The good news is that a team doesn’t need a top-10 PP to win a title (See: Bruins, Kings, Hawks). The bad news is that there is this thing out there called “opportunity cost,” which the Rangers are paying. Neglecting a powerful scoring advantage eventually catches up with whomever is neglecting it and when your primary competitor within the division is pulling out Alexander Ovechkin and clicking on that same advantage at a 25% clip, it is going to hurt you.
Throw some smart money money at the problem and get someone to focus on working with those players in practice. Either that or give Brian Leetch a uniform. Do…something.
(Calling Emerson Etem: Looking for a niche within which to make an impact and expand your role?)
Penalty Kill: The PK has been strong. At present, Rangers penalty killers have killed 18 straight penalties, has improved over that stretch to an effectiveness rating of 87.88% and is currently ranked 6th in the NHL, which is just where it was in ’14-15. SO far, the loss of Carl Hagelin hasn’t negatively impacted the Rangers on the PK, though it’s worth noting that they haven’t yet scored a SHG, a category in which they were in the top-5 in the league for two straight seasons.
COACHING: A-. You’re only as strong as your weakest link.
This NY Rangers are a well-coached hockey club. This season marks the third straight during which Alain Vigneault, Ulf Samuelson and Scott Arniel will be the bench trio behind the blue sweaters. They share a common vision and philosophy and this season, they deserve credit for getting the team ready, for professionally handling the tasks of paring down the roster without leaving much ambiguity out there and for putting a very good hockey club together.
I’ve mentioned this before, but about a week prior to Opening Night, a lot of teams still had 30+ players left in their respective camps and AV had the Rangers roster down to 25. That’s an effective way to “steal time” away from the weeding-out process and to give it over to the practice squads. That’s an early advantage that enabled the team work toward getting out to a stronger start.
It would be failing not to mention Benny Allaire again here. Allaire (brother of “the goalie whisperer,” Francoise Allaire) has been with the Rangers since 2004 and has been Lundqvist’s goalie coach for the entire span of the goalie’s NHL career. He spends a lot of time traveling to work with the organization’s prospects at all levels and is widely considered to be one of the best in the game. His request to Vigneault to keep Lundqvist out of preseason game situations during the first week of camp this season appears to have been a successful measure in helping both Lundqvist and Raanta: the former was able to work on his focus and decision-making and the latter was able to log game situation minutes to get acclimated to the Rangers’ pace and style of play. All he does is get better at what he does, year in, year out and this year is no exception. Arizona tried to snipe him, but Benny said “no, thanks.”
Three knocks on the coaching staff: 1) The Diaz debacle; 2) sticking with line experiments a little to long, and; 3) continued failure on the power play. Other than those things? I think they’re doing a pretty solid job.
It’s hard to argue with success. The Rangers have started pretty slowly the past few years and have improved on that this year. Last season, it should be noted, the month of November was statistically the team’s worst of the season – it was the only calendar month during which they played to a sub .500 record. They are already ahead of the bow-wave relative to last season. The next challenge is to sustain those gains.
The Rangers next game is at 7:00 PM ET on Friday, Oct 30th versus Mike Babcock’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Madison Square Garden.