Some statistics are out there that unquestionably support the fact that the New York Yankees have a chance at competing in 2017.
It’s something all baseball fans love to see: stats that implant confidence in their team.Not a ton of people are convinced that the New York Yankees‘ have a chance at fighting for the American League East, but there are some numbers out there that will convince you otherwise.
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ESNY breaks down which numbers involving certain players on New York’s roster should make you feel a lot better about the team’s chances.
Don’t worry, pessimists, next week we’ll break down which numbers that should make you worry about the 2017 squad. For this issue, though, we’re staying positive:
3.30
Michael Pineda is confusing, isn’t he?
Last season, Big Mike became the only starting pitcher in major league history to give up 25+ homers while maintaining an ERA over 4.80, a strikeout-per-nine rate of 10+ and striking out 200 or more batters.
That’s not the stat we’re focusing on today, though, as Pineda’s 3.40 xFIP, (strips out defense, luck and predictive of future performance — per FanGraphs), ranked third among qualified major league starters — behind Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard.
In addition to his xFIP, Pineda strikes out more than a batter per inning, led the league in K/9 and has frequently displayed ace-level material on the hill.
So, basically, while many find Michael Pineda to be frustratingly inconsistent, there were signs in 2016 (like his xFIP) that are reassuring that, perhaps, he could tap into his potential for a full season.
168
Gary Sanchez was on a 61 home run pace in 2016 but, please, don’t be ludicrous.
Despite becoming the fastest player in baseball history (45 games) to reach the 18 home run mark and totaling 20 in his first 53 games, he hit just 10 in 71 Triple-A games prior to earning a call-up to the Bronx.
A digression is approaching, but that doesn’t mean the baseball world isn’t seeing its next superstar.
Along with his historic power surge, Sanchez maintained an OPS+ of 168 which was good enough for 6th best among Yankees’ hitters with at least 200 at-bats in a season since 1975.
Only Reggie Jackson (1980), Jason Giambi (2002), Alex Rodriguez (2005, ’07) and Paul O’Neill (1994) rank ahead of the Kraken.
It’s completely unfair to think that he’ll be in the range of breaking Barry Bonds’ single-season home run record, but to see such a young kid with a professional approach with the potential to carry a team is ensuring that you have a superstar, to say the least.
Even if New York only gets 25-30 homers and a .280 batting average, they’ll take it. What they won’t, however, is Kevin Maas 2.0 and Sanchez’s incredible OPS+, which is 68 points above league average, is an indication that the Yankees have something special.
704
Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman may not be as attractive without their accomplice (Andrew Miller), but the duo is baseball’s best.
Among major league relievers since 2014, Betances owns the most strikeouts (392) while Chapman is ranked third on that same list with 312.
Yes, the Yankees have two of the top three (used to have all three) and they combine for a whopping 704 strikeouts since Betances became a reliever — comfortably better than any duo in the game.
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That can be skewed, however, as even No-Runs DMC couldn’t keep the miserable 2016 Yankees out of the cellar but when it comes to this back-end tandem, things are a little different.
Throughout the first half of last season, guys like Kirby Yates (5.72 ERA), Chasen Shreve (4.64 ERA), Nick Goody (4.91 ERA) Johnny Barbato (5.54 ERA) and Anthony Swarzak (5.68 ERA) led the team in middle relief appearances.
These five relievers, who’s chief objective was to transfer the lead from the starters into the firm grasp of the three-headed monster, combined for a 5.28 ERA while surrendering 21 home runs in 97.1 innings of work — resulting in just 39 holds.
In the second half, Adam Warren (3.26), Tyler Clippard (2.49 ERA), Tommy Layne (3.38), Luis Severino (0.39 ERA) and Richard Bleier (0.00 ERA) led the way — combining for a 2.76 ERA while surrendering just 11 home runs in 117.2 innings and 41 holds.
Now, as the 2017 season is right around the corner, the bullpen has added Chapman back into the mix while the same (or similar) squad of middle relievers will likely find their way back into a middle relief role.
Unlike last year, that astronomically high combined strikeout total by Betances and Chapman could effectively influence the win column for New York — and it’s a scary thought for any opposition.
96.82 mph
An Aaron Judge at his greatest potential could help the Yankees’ lineup become a well-oiled machine. The catch is, Judge still has some proving to do.
Along with striking out in exactly half of his at-bats, the monstrous slugger set the Yankees’ record for the most strikeouts (42) within a player’s first 27 games. But when he made contact…
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Judge’s average exit velocity on batted balls, according to Statcast, was 96.82 mph compared to the major league average of 89.57. Incredible.
That velocity is great and all (in fact, led major league baseball), but it’s his minor league tendencies that validate that as a source of optimism.
Upon his promotion from Double-A Trenton to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2015, Judge saw his OPS drop from .866 to .680 while also watching his strikeout rate climb from 28% to 32%.
He bounced back the following year by smashing 19 home runs in just 93 games and bringing his OPS back up to an impressive .854. In the majors, his OPS dipped to .608 while he struck out a ton.
Expect the slugger to bounce back, expect him to remain streaky and expect a ton of strikeouts. You should also expect his exceptional constant: Incredible Hulk-like power.
.351
People will continuously have their opinion on Brett Gardner, but you can’t argue with facts and the fact is the nine-year veteran was the most productive Yankee from Opening Day to October in 2016.
Not only did he lead the team with 77 runs created, but he maintained the second-best on-base percentage (.351) of his career. That percentage also ranked third among American League left fielders.
According to baseball reference’s play index, only one draft pick since Derek Jeter was selected in the 1992 amateur draft has a higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR) than the captain and his name is Brett Gardner.
Additionally, the speedster is in the top-10 in walks, runs scored, hits, triples and stolen bases among Yankees’ hitters since 1990.
While many people are quick to argue that Gardner should be traded and replaced internally, his ability to get on base in front of Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird should do everything except hurt the output of the offense.
2.90
Masahiro Tanaka may not be worthy of trust thanks to his partially torn UCL, but his value sits at an elite level.
In 31 games in which the 28-year old appeared in last season, the Yankees went 23-8 while Tanaka’s 2.90 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranked third among qualified American League starters.
Plus, the righty’s career WPA (5.75) ranks ninth among Yankees’ starters since 1980 ahead of names like CC Sabathia, Dwight Gooden and Dave Righetti.
A year ago, Tanaka finished 7th in the AL Cy Young award voting and in a rotation cluttered in question marks beyond New York’s ace, it’s good to know that when this guy takes the mound every five games, there’s a strong probability of a victory.
.552
Shockingly enough, the 2016 Yankees — a team that sold at the deadline — pulled within one game of a postseason spot.
Yes, there are tons of “ifs” that surround them this season, but there was a distinctive vibe in Yankee-land after the Baby Bombers made last season seem like a dawn of a new era rather than an immense failure.
After trading its best hitter (Carlos Beltran) and the best relievers in baseball at the deadline, New York went 32-26 (.552 win percentage) including a near-perfect August that brought them from mediocrity into relevancy.
That was also a team that lacked consistency in its rotation, an effective first baseman and a slow start from their powerful young right fielder.
A lot of people, like myself, are figuring this team won’t compete, but if Gary Sanchez demonstrated anything from his historic surge, it’s that these Baby Bombers may be too inexperienced to know any better.
If the rotation holds its own and the endless potential of the offense is showcased, there’s no reason to believe this Yankees’ squad can’t do what others are saying they won’t: contend for a postseason spot in 2017.