Charles Krupa, AP
In just a few hours, arguably the best weekend in sports will commence: the NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs. Here’s ESNY’s full preview.
By Jeff Jarboe
Kansas City blew out the unmatched Texans by 30 points, Aaron Rodgers took care of business in Washington, and the Seawhawks survived the third coldest game in NFL history as they beat the Vikings 10-9 in Minnesota.
But now the fun begins.
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us and unlike the Wild Card round, it features some very exciting matchups — Josh Norman v. Doug Baldwin; Cam Newton v. The Legion of Boom; Tom Brady v. the Kansas City pass rush; Rodgers v. Palmer; Roethlisberger v. Manning…to name a few.
Which hall of fame quarterbacks are going to move on? Brady with a busted offensive line? Roethlisberger with no Antonio Brown? Can Carson Palmer leave Rodgers and the Pack in the dust on their way to the NFC Championship? And who of the young quarterback stars will take their team to the Championship round? Will it be Cam Newton the MVP favorite, or Russell Wilson the playoff veteran and former super bowl champion?
Here’s the breakdown of all four Divisional Round games.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
In the opening game of the divisional round the NFL’s hottest team, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to New England and look to keep their 11-game winning streak going against a banged up, but healing Patriots team that welcomes back wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.
The return of Edelman and Amendola means the return of the Patriots passing game. Because when Tom Brady has these two at his disposal he is able to get the ball out of his hands before his banged up offensive line can collapse before him. New England has dealt with injuries at nearly every position on the offensive line, shuffling 13 different lineups in through 16 regular season games. This weekend they’ll welcome back Sebastian Vollmer at left tackle, but will be without starting rookie right guard Tre’ Jackson.
The status of Kansas City’s passing game on the other hand, has yet to be determined as it remains unclear whether the team’s top wideout, Jeremy Maclin will be active and whether he’ll be effective if activated. Maclin suffered a leg injury in the team’s blowout against Houston and avoided a torn ACL, but missed practice all week with a high ankle sprain.
If Houston is going to pull this upset off however, it’s not going to be because of their passing game. It’s going to be because they have one of the AFC’s most dangerous defenses.
The Kansas City defense finished second in the league with 22 interceptions during the regular season, eight of which came from Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Marcus Peters. Peters, along with pro bowl safety Eric Berry and cornerback Sean Smith could be difference makers in this game if the Kansas City front seven can force Brady to make some arrant throws. And with the combination of Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe, Kansas City’s front seven may do just that.
While it’s important for these guys to pressure Brady consistently and give him an array of different pass rushing looks, it’s 10x more important for this defense as a whole not to give up any big plays. They can’t afford to miss tackles, fall for double moves, let Brady spin out of a tackle, or let Keshawn Martin run up the seam for an 80-yard bomb and a momentum-shifting TD. Because once this defense gives up the lead to Tom Brady, it’s going to be very hard for Alex Smith to bring his team back against the New England defense.
If Smith is playing from behind he’s going to have to pass and when New England knows they’re passing the Chiefs receivers aren’t going to get open, it’s as simple as that. Kansas City’s strength on offense is in their misdirection running game–they ranked sixth in the NFL during the regular season with an average of 127.8 rushing yards per game.
Smith finished with a career high 3,486 passing yards in 2015, along with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but he too will be going up against a fearsome pass rush that features Chandler Jones and Jabaal Sheard. If New England is able to take away the run game, Smith may not have enough time or enough weapons on the outside to win this game through the air.
Prediction: New England 27, Kansas City 17
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
The last time we saw Rodgers play the Cardinals in the playoffs he was strip-sacked in overtime by Michael Adams and watched from the ground as Karlos Dansby returned it for a game-ending touchdown. Arizona lost to New Orleans in the Divisional Round the following week and Rodgers won a super bowl the following year, but when he returns to the site of that infamous interception tomorrow night, Rodgers has to have a bit of revenge on his mind.
Right?
What’s different about this game and that game back in 2009 (aside from the fact it was a Wild Card game and this is a Divisional Round game) is that this time Rodgers and the Packers are heavy underdogs.
Green Bay heads into this game riding a one-game winning streak after they lost their final two games of the season (Week 17 loss to Minnesota and Week 16 loss to Arizona…). They finished the year with the 23rd ranked offense (25th pass, 12th rush) and the 15th ranked defense (6th pass, 21st rush). They didn’t have one player exceed 1,000 yards rushing or passing.
Arizona meanwhile, finished the regular season with the first ranked offense (2nd pass, 8th rush) and the fifth ranked defense (8th pass, 6th rush). Bruce Arians is up for Coach of the Year and Carson Palmer is an MVP candidate after throwing for over 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns this season. Larry Fitzgerald enjoyed one of his best seasons in his long career with over 100 catches, 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns. Sophomore wideout John Brown also exceeded 1,000 yards receiving on the year.
On the other side of the ball Arizona’s defense hasn’t lost a beat since star safety Tyrann Mathieu went down with a torn ACL. Patrick Peterson remains one of the league’s top shutdown corners, Deone Bucannon had a career year at his hybrid safety/linebacker position with over 100 tackles, three sacks and three forced fumbles, and Dwight Freeney has enjoyed a resurgence in his 14th season with eight sacks and three forced fumbles out on the edge.
So yeah, Rodgers and the Pack are as big of underdogs as they can be heading into this game. But like the Patriots with Brady, the Packers will always have a chance as long as Aaron Rodgers lines up under center.
Rodgers has plenty of weapons to work with, the problem is the play calling. Head coach Mike McCarthy has failed to get this offense going after he took over the play calling duties from Tom Clements early this December, though the offense did play well last week against Washington.
If McCarthy hands the keys over to Rodgers and lets him air it out, rather than handing the ball off to Eddie “The Bowling Ball” Lacy every other play, this team will have a chance to win. Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at recognizing opposing blitzes and defensive formations, so if he can do that and get the ball out quickly Green Bay will have a chance to pull off the upset.
But Carson Palmer is capable of making these adjustments too, and he has a better offensive line, better weapons, a better running back (right now), a better head coach AND a better defense backing him up…
Prediction: Green Bay 28, Arizona 34
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Had it not been -5 degrees in Minnesota last weekend, the Seattle Seahawks may not have made it past the Wild Card round. But thanks to Blair Walsh‘s frozen foot, Seattle escaped their NFC Wild Card matchup with the Vikings, defeating them by a score of 10-9, and will now have a shot at redemption as they travel to North Carolina to take on the Panthers.
Carolina beat the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this season (which is no easy task) on a last-minute Cam Newton touchdown pass to Greg Olsen. The win brought Carolina’s record to 5-0 and it was perhaps the first game in which the rest of the football world realized that Newton and his team were legit.
Any time a team beats the Seahawks in Seattle they’re going to take it personal, which is exactly why this game figures to be such a great matchup. That, and a few other things.
Though it may seem like Seattle’s defense has taken a step down from their dominant play in years past, they finished as the second ranked defense in 2015 (2nd pass, 1st rush). And they still boast one of the most talented secondaries in the league–the Legion of Boom, consisting of Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and DeShawn Shead, is now faced with the task of stopping Cam Newton.
Despite his extreme lack of receiving threats on the outside, Newton finished the regular season with 3,837 passing yards, 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. It was on the ground though where he did the most damage, rushing for 636 yards for 10 more touchdowns on 132 carries (4.8 ypc).
Seattle will also rely on their young, running quarterback to get their offense moving against another one of the league’s top defenses in Carolina. Wilson though, unlike Newton, will have an elite running back at full health to help him do so. His legal name is Marshawn, but during the football season (and especially in the playoffs) he goes by “BEAST MODE”.
Nobody knows what to expect from Marshawn Lynch on Sunday, but if he can be half of what he’s been for this team the last three years in the playoffs the Seahawks will win this game. Russell Wilson is going to have a very hard time finding an open receiver against Josh Norman and company, which is why Lynch’s return is so crucial.
The presence of Beast Mode in the backfield alone will force Carolina to stack the box and though that’s an area that they typically thrive in, that’s the last thing they want to do against Seattle’s offense. Pete Carroll has become much more fond of taking shots downfield now that he has a speedster at wide receiver in Tyler Lockett to spread the defense out.
If Lynch can be productive on the ground it will open up opportunities for Lockett and company downfield, and as soon as Russell completes a deep pass that will in turn create space for Lynch up front. Of course, the same can be said for Newton/Stewart and Ted Ginn Jr.. If Cam and J. Stew can get the running game going it will create space downfield for Ginn, and Newton’s an even better downfield passer than Wilson.
But if this game turns out to be the defensive, run-heavy battle that many believe it will be, the scale tips in Seattle’s direction. That is, if Marshawn Lynch can channel his inner Beast Mode.
Prediction: Seattle 20, Carolina 16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Unlike New England, who is welcoming back several offensive playmakers from injury as they head into their matchup against KC, Pittsburgh is saying bye to two of the team’s top playmakers right before the team travels to Denver to take on the NFL’s top defense.
DeAngelo Williams will miss another important game this weekend as he continues to deal with his foot injury, and will now have company on the sidelines as star wide receiver Antonio Brown was officially ruled out with a concussion. Brown suffered the concussion on the late-game Vontaze Burfict hit that drew a personal foul and set up the game-winning field goal last week in Cincinnati.
With Williams and Brown both out for this game, it’s going to be up to a banged up Ben Roethlisberger to work some playoff magic with the weapons he has left–Marcus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant. Unfortunately they’ll be going up against a Denver defense that on average allowed less than 200 passing yards per game and racked up a league-high 52 sacks this season.
The combination of Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby in the secondary, and Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware up front has proved to be lethal for the Broncos this season and it’s one of the main reasons they’ve made it to this point. Offensively, Denver struggled to find their identity this season as they dealt with two different quarterbacks, multiple starting running backs, and inconsistent play from their star wide receiver, Demaryius Thomas.
Now that Peyton Manning is healthy and back in the starting lineup however, Denver’s offense figures to have no issues moving the ball against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed 271.9 passing yards per game (30th) this season. That is, if they can protect their aging quarterback from the Steelers fearsome pass rush. Pittsburgh finished just below Denver this season with a sack total of 48 (3rd).
Ultimately, whichever team gets the running game going and owns the turnover margin will win this game. Both teams have a hall of fame quarterback commanding their offense, but both QB’s are going up against very good front sevens. It’s hard to imagine Big Ben pulling this one off against a Denver defense that may go down as one of the best the NFL has ever seen, especially without Williams and Brown at his disposal.
Alternatively, it’s not so hard to imagine Peyton Manning, fueled by recent HGH accusations, Omaha-ing his way up and down the field against Pittsburgh’s defense and leading Denver to the AFC Championship game. The offensive line will have to do their part, but in many ways Peyton is a sixth member of the o-line because of his ability to recognize blitzes and make adjustments.
If Manning can do this and stay on his feet for most of the game, Denver’s defense will do the rest. Big Ben doesn’t have enough magic or enough playmakers at his disposal to pull off this upset against this defense.