Daniel Murphy rejected a 1 year/$15.8 million dollar qualifying offer and is now a free agent. For the Mets, this isn’t a bad thing.
By Greg Cambareri
Regardless of what the future holds, he is surely going to be missed. Thanks for the memories, Murph.
Once the initial sting of the realization that he’ll be playing ball in colors other than orange and blue subsides, you realize it isn’t all that bad. Yes, Murphy can flat out hit, play three different positions on the diamond, and is a heck of a teammate. However, this gives the Mets flexibility in more ways than one.
The Mets benefit from Murphy rejecting his qualifying offer in three different ways:
Murphy departing for free agency gives the Mets financial flexibility.
Imagine how the notoriously frugal owners of the Mets would have reacted if Murphy accepted? He made around $8 million last year, so his salary would have almost doubled had he accepted the qualifying offer.
The ownership triumvirate consisting of Fred and Jeff Wilpon along with Saul Katz continues to keep a payroll in the middle tier of the MLB. The Mets success last season is sure to bring increased revenue in the form of ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, parking, TV ratings, revenue from their blog network, etc. While it is anticipated that payroll will be up from last seasons opening day mark of $101 million, don’t expect a sudden jump into the top five. After arbitration, the Mets should have around $90 million committed to next season. If Murphy were to earn nearly $16 million next season, it would easily hinder the rest of the offseason plans.
It’s no secret that the Mets will need a veteran arm or two in the bullpen, another outfielder who can play center, and a possible upgrade in the middle of the infield, be it at shortstop or second base. The Mets farm system is rich in infield prospects (Dilson Herrera, Gavin Cecchini, Ahmed Roasrio, Matt Reynolds, etc.) which gives them several cost controllable options to fill the void left by Murphy. While the Mets are a win now team, their payroll constraints likely mean a younger player gets the chance to make a name for himself at second. We have seen that Wilmer Flores can at least adequately handle the position, but he also could see considerable time at short again next season. Murphy’s salary is no longer on the books, giving the Mets a little breathing room to address more pressing areas of need.
Dilson Herrera will likely be given the opportunity to become the second baseman of the future.
Murphy’s departure means young Dilson Herrera will be given the chance to own second base. Herrera, who won’t turn 22 until March, has been highly touted by scouts and looks like he has the potential to make the Marlon Byrd in trade in 2013 a real victory for Sandy Alderson.
We mentioned in the last slide the numerous middle infield prospects the Mets have. Herrera has already had a cup of coffee in the majors, appearing in 31 games last year and 18 in 2014. We also mentioned Wilmer Flores could see time at second, but it is likely that only happens if Herrera really struggles.
Herrera already gives the Mets a defensive upgrade. He is much younger and a much better athlete than Murphy. Given Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes’s likely absences in the lineup next season, defense is going to more vital than ever for the pitching rich Mets.
Herrera also features a short, compact swing, which allows him to make solid contact and posses some pop in his 5’10” frame. He also has decent speed, something the Mets sorely lacked last season.
The young Columbian has all the tools to be an all star caliber player. The pressure will definitely be on with a club in win-now mode, but his high upside and cost controllable contract make him an intriguing player going into next season. One last thing to consider? Murphy only posted one season with a WAR over 2.0. The shoes Herrera has to fill might not be as big as you think.
Because Murphy declined his qualifying offer, the Mets will receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.
When the Mets signed Michael Cuddyer last offseason, they had to forfeit their first round pick. If they decide to sign a player who costs them a top pick again this offseason, they at least will have a competitive balance pick between the first and second rounds of the draft to give them a little more flexibility.
Think about this: the Mets and Royals were the last two teams left standing when the Fall Classic began in October. They both had mid tier payrolls. Both teams successfully drafted and traded well to acquire young talent that fueled their respective postseason runs. This proves that the big spenders can’t buy success like they used to. In fact, 6 out of the top 10 teams (payroll wise) did not make the playoffs this past season.
Draft picks have more value than ever, so the compensation the Mets will receive for Murphy is significant in building for future sustainability.
So, does losing Daniel Murphy now seem all that bad?