The focus for the New York Mets quickly moves from the Dodgers in the NLDS to the Cubs in the NLCS. How do the two teams break down?
By Corey Aron
The Cubs may have gone 7-0 against the Mets this season, however that all happened during the first half of the season. Let’s just say the Mets were without half of their starting lineup they are now currently featuring.
D’Arnaud was out both series’ on separate DL stints; Michael Conforto was yet to be called u,p even though the fan base urged for some type of spark; the Yoenis Cespedes deal was only a day dream at that current time; and last, but certainly not least, the captain, David Wright, was on the fringes of hanging up his cleats due to spinal stenosis. That’s not to say that the Mets didn’t see the full-on lineup that Chicago has now presented to us as well. Some guy named Kyle Schwarber has also made an impact that has surely filled out the Cubbies lineup.
Let us now take a look at each position to compare which team has the advantage as we look ahead to what shall be a glorifying series to come.
1B: Lucas Duda vs Anthony Rizzo
It’s almost eerie to see how identical both of these two first baseman’s career stats have been. If you asked who is the better first baseman, 9 out of 10 people will say Rizzo and won’t even think twice about it. Considering Duda has 101 career Home runs along with 318 RBI, in comparison to Rizzo’s 102 Home Runs and 316 RBI, you may want to look further into these players before immediately picking the favorite.
You would also think Rizzo is the more agile and polished fielder. Wrong, because Lucas Duda astonishingly has 3 total errors in his last two seasons. Meanwhile Rizzo has committed 9 errors each of the last two seasons. Something to think about, given the 1B Bill Buckner’s history of being part of the worst error in World Series history. Fielding matters.
Get this: Duda is 2-18 in the postseason while Rizzo is 3-18. Of course, Duda struck out an NLDS record of 11 times, and Rizzo has at least a couple of huge dingers to set aside the immediate panic just yet from Chicago.
Winner: The ever-so-slight edge goes to Anthony Rizzo. But this first comparison goes to show that you have to really delve deep before immediately coming to a decision.
1-0 Cubs
2B: Daniel Murphy vs Starlin Castro
I’m sort of freaking out here. Both Murphy and Castro have 62 HRs each in their careers thus far. In fact, Murphy only has seven-points higher in career average (.288) and 39 more ribbies than Castro.
Another thing these two have in common is their shotty defense. Castro is a natural shortstop, but with the arrival of Addison Russell and Javier Baez his time in Chicago has been hanging on a thread. 24 total errors this season for Castro at both positions with an insurmountable 138 career errors. I believe since entering into the league, that tops as the most errors for any position player. Hey, at least he’s not like SS Elvis Andrus dropping three balls in the 8th inning to blow the Texas Rangers lead in Game 5.
Both players have done well this post season. You can make a case that Murphy has done beyond just the word ‘well’ and rightfully so. He’s been a Mets hero thus far and he wouldn’t want to be doing this with any other team. Castro on the other hand I don’t think would mind to start fresh elsewhere, given how crowded the Cubs IF has become.
Winner: Daniel Murphy
1-1 tied
SS: Wilmer Flores vs Javier Baez
Things are just becoming more and more ironic. Both SS’s are replacing their respective starters due to injury. We all know what happened with Ruben Tejada in Game 2’s collision with Chase Utley. We also now know that Addison Russell will miss the NLCS with a hamstring injury.
Instead I actually believe both replacements will give their team a better chance, at least at the plate that is. Baez had Wrigley Field shaking at its core with a 3-run opposite field shot that gave the Cubs a game clinching 4-2 lead over the Cardinals to advance.
The former 9th overall pick back in 2011 has changed his plate approach. Baez is now covering more of the plate rather than standing in the middle of the box. Sometimes you have to move those feet closer to get a better read on Major league pitches coming at you.
Wilmer Flores has been no slouch either. In fact, I don’t think he receives a whole lot of credit for his .263 16 HRs 59 RBI season. I think most ball clubs will sign up for that kind of production from a 2nd year SS wouldn’t you agree?
Winner: The unfortunate draw. We’ll see which bottom of the order SS looks to break this draw.
So far it’s 1-1-1 in the position comparison.
3B: David Wright vs Kris Bryant
Don’t worry, we will break the draw here in the 3B comparison. Kris Bryant was 12 years old when David Wright made his MLB debut and now the two will be going at it to get to this years ultimate prize. Both are essentially the faces of their organization, so much so I’d have to imagine the Cubs naming Kris Bryant at some point-and-time their teams’ captain. So it’s Captain vs. Soon-to-be-Captain.
Met fans are relieved to see David Wright come back from what was thought to be a career-ending spinal stenosis injury. The good news is that Wright was able to comeback; however he’s clearly lost a step. The Mets front office may even want to re-consider restructuring his $138 million dollar contract that goes up until 2021. Nevertheless, the Mets needed him to get to where they are at this point and I can’t see him doing any worse than how he had performed in the Divisional series.
Kris Bryant was this years No. 1 ranked prospect heading into this season. He is the man who truly changed what has been an abysmal Cubs team over the years. He’s been nothing short of special despite to a slow start to this years postseason. Two of his 26 HRs have come against the Mets this season and therefore I believe his batting woes will surely change for the better.
Winner: Kris Bryant
2-1-1 Cubs
Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud vs Miguel Montero
d’Arnaud was hyped up to be essentially the next Buster Posey. Well guess what, he’s living up to being a pretty darn good catcher in the majors. If it wasn’t for the unfortunate hit-by-pitch from Marlins RP A.J. Ramos that led to TDA fracturing his right wrist, along with another DL stint to come shortly after, we’re talking about Travis debuting in what would have been his first All-Star game.
Miguel Montero has had a fairly nice career behind the plate – nine of those years coming with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He was able to hold his own this season by having Joe Maddon re-position Kyle Schwarber into the OF in order to get both bats into his lineup. So far this post-season it has been quite awful for Montero.
Winner: Travis d’Arnaud
2-2-1 tied
Left Field: Michael Conforto vs Kyle Schwarber
The rookie vs rookie battle at left field is oh so close. Schwarber went from winning this year’s MVP in the MLB Futures Game to five days later becoming an every day player for the Chicago Cubs. This guy is a true fan favorite for all the right reasons. He’s already shown to have a knack for the spotlight and is probably the hottest hitter heading into the NLCS. As Joe Maddon put it, “He lives in the moment.”
Thankfully, the Mets called up Conforto at the right time. Usually they’ve had a tendency to call up their rookies while piling on all the pressure in the world for them to give a spark to what was once considered as a lethargic lineup. In lieu, Conforto had the protection of Cespedes and David Wright back into the lineup during his call-up, which gave him the luxury to properly acclimate himself without being immediately written off.
Both players have sky rocketed their way ups to the bigs in a matter of one year since being drafted in 2014. Technically both teams are winners here, however we have to pick one since we’ve already utilized a draw.
Winner: Kyle Schwarber
3-2-1 Cubs
Right Field: Yoenis Cespedes vs Jorge Soler
The Cuban Clash. See how much fun we’re having by comparing these positions? Soler has shown flashes to really impress people in his transition to the Bigs. The guy was on base all nine plate appearances to start off his post-season career before going 0-3 in Game 4. That’s mightily impressive, so by no means will he be an easy out in spite of his struggles against the Mets this season.
The hero himself, quite possibly baseballs’ MVP of the 2nd half of the 2015 season.. drum roll please: Yoenis Cespedes. It makes you wonder how this is now his 4th team in his four years in MLB. Yoenis is like that really cute puppy at the puppy store that nobody seems to want to bring home. In spite of his free-agency looming, I think both sides would like to keep the fun rolling for a long time to come. That’s if Fred Wilpon wants to pony up the dough – which is unfortunately asking a lot out of him.
Winner: Cespedes gets the cigar
3-3-1 tied
Center Field: Curtis Granderson vs Dexter Fowler
If this was the Curtis Granderson that had performed in the post season for his time in pinstripes, it would have definitely hindered his chances on winning this position battle. His two-out bases clearing double in Game 3 gave Citi Field its biggest postseason hit to date. Yankee fans grew tiresome of both the Grandy-can man as NYY’s radio personality John Sterling would call him, and hitting coach Kevin Long. It seems that the two are inseparable and have game-planned together in bringing success to the Mets top of the lineup.
Dexter Fowler’s game, I think, is very comparable to Granderson’s. Both players are their team’s lead-off hitters who play fairly stout defense while manning the outfield. He is also a new face in this year’s 2015 Cubs team and his post season statistics going forward may dictate in whether Theo Epstein wants to bring him back for another year.
Winner: Curtis Granderson
Lineup: Mets win, 4-3-1
Starting Rotations
Jon Lester has been given the ball to start Game 1 at Citi Field. The two-time World Series winner was brought in by Epstein for this very exact scenario. That’s to translate his 2.65 postseason era and to use that experience for Saturday’s occasion.
The man who we initially thought would get the Game 1 start, Jake Arrieta, will instead take the rubber for Game 2. The future NL CY Young award winner was 2-0 against the Mets this season and provides New York with that much more pressure to win Game 1. Let’s just say if Lester wins, it will almost feel as if Game 2 will have the Mets season hanging in the balance. Look at his stuff while pitching against the Mets earlier in the season at Citi Field. Straight filthy.
Outside of their front-end of the rotation, Kyle Kendricks and Jason Hammel prove to be much weaker to have for Games 3 & 4 in comparison to the Mets’ back-end of the rotation with Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Essentially, this could be one of those crazy series which could foreshadow both teams botching their home-field advantage due to the differences in their rotation.
Make no mistake about it, the Mets’ front-end with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom is just about as good as it gets. However, Matt Harvey’s inning limits, and the tough love he’s now received from both the fan base and his teammates lead to a shaky Game 3 in the NLDS.
Winner: As a whole, the Mets starting rotation is better. However, the slight edge will go to the Cubs Games 1 & 2 starters, as the advantage will favor the Mets starting staff in Games 3 & 4.
Bullpen
It’s not necessarily a bad thing to have Jonathan Niese and Bartolo Colon as the Mets long-relief men. However, it’s a different mentality to go from being a starting pitcher throughout your career, to then having to transition to warm-up at any given time during the game. Their bullpen has never been a strength for this team, it just hasn’t. On the bright side, Jeurys Familia has become one of the game’s best closers. He tied Armando Benitez for the team’s all-time saves record in a season by converting 43 out of his 48 save attempts. I also think it’s safe to say that his six out save performance in last night’s clincher was as impressive as it gets for a closer. It was so impressive, that it was the first six-out save for a Mets closer in the postseason since none other than Jesse Orosco’s World Series Game 7 save in 86′.
On the contrary, the Cubs bullpen is pretty darn good. If you include Fernando Rodney and Pedro Strop, along with their current closer Hector Rondon, they certainly don’t have a problem in terms of guys that can close out a ball game. Add on probably their most impressive BP Justin Grimm and long relief men: Trevor Cahill and Travis Wood — it won’t be an easy task to see any of these guys after facing the likes of both Lester and Arrieta.
Winner: Cubs Bullpen; Even though I’d choose Familia over Rondon to close it out.
If this comparison doesn’t scream how tight these two ball-clubs match-up, while also factoring the epic proportions we’re about to watch, then I’m not sure what will.