Who on the New York Yankees’ staff is worthy of leading the rotation? We all thought it be Masahiro Tanaka in 2015. Were we all wrong?
By Bryan Pol
In Joe Girardi’s second year as manager, CC Sabathia, behind a 19-8 record and a 3.37 ERA in the regular season, would lead the Yankees back to the postseason, winning the ALCS MVP and his club a World Series championship in light of a 3-1 record and a 1.92 ERA in five postseason starts.
In the next two seasons, Sabathia would go 40-15 with a 3.09 ERA, a sterling tenure that allowed him to opt out of his 2009 deal in the 2011 offseason, a newly retooled contract that amounted to larger per-year salary and an additional year on the deal.
Although he would finish in the top-five in Cy Young voting every year from 2009 to 2011 and make the American League All-Star team from 2010 to 2012, Sabathia, going 15-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 2012, would never be the same thereafter.
Sabathia’s weight has fluctuated from season to season, resulting in chronic knee problems (potential microfracture surgery could effectively end his career) and a sizable loss in velocity of his fastball. He managed only eight starts in 2014 and now, a former ace forced out of the Yankee rotation, Sabathia has only mustered twenty-four inconsistent starts in 2015. His ERA has never dipped below 4.78 in the past three seasons, and his collective ERA the past two years has been well over 5.00.
Since Sabathia’s descent, the Yankees have been without a true ace in the rotation, despite signing Masahiro Tanaka to a mega deal (seven years, $155 million) in 2014, a contract inspired by the relatively rapid fall CC has endured.
Several times this season, three Yankee starters, from Tanaka to Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino, have displayed flashes of brilliance worthy of ace status. Even so, it remains a difficult prospect in deciding who amongst them is truly the leader of a staff that, as of Monday, has lead New York within a half game of the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East. Let us look at each pitcher’s resume on a case by case basis, both for and against their deserving the mantle of the ace of the New York Yankees rotation.
Masahiro Tanaka
The Case For
Tanaka, the pitching sensation by way of Itami, Hyogo, Japan, has lead the Yankees in complete games these last two seasons, with four to his credit, his most recent, a dominant performance on August 15 against the hot-hitting Toronto Blue Jays on the road, by which the right-hander struck out eight over nine innings, allowing but one run.
The gem was his best performance in an up and down month of August, by which Tanaka went 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA, certainly respectable numbers in the midst of a pennant race. Tanaka’s complete game came when Michael Pineda was still on the disabled list and Luis Severino remained winless, preserving the Yankees’ then 1 1/2 game lead in the division.
Now 11-6 overall with a 3.73 ERA, Tanaka has managed a 1.02 WHIP on the year, lower than his rate from 2014 (1.06).
Of any Yankee pitcher, Tanaka arguably offers the most complete repertoire, throwing a plus-fastball, a devastating out pitch in his splitter, and an above-average slider that have permitted him to throw six or more innings in every start in July, August, and September thus far (11 in total).
The Case Against
Compared to his brilliant rookie campaign in 2014, Tanaka is down in several departments, allowing nearly a full run more per nine innings and striking out fewer batters per nine innings (from 9.3 to 8.1). In eight fewer innings thrown this year, Tanaka has substantially allowed more home runs (21 to his 15 in 2014) and walks (25 to 21), striking out only 115 batters in 128 innings pitched. By ERA+ standards, a figure that adjusts for the player’s ballparks, Tanaka is merely average, posting a 105 mark.
In a 13-8 win at Fenway Park on September 2, by which his lineup gifted him a 11-1 lead in the bottom of the second inning, Tanaka struggled, allowing four runs in 6 1/3 innings, including a Xander Bogaerts home run in the sixth that forced manager Joe Girardi to resort to a bullpen that should have been given a much needed reprieve.
With a UCL tear in his right elbow, Tanaka has done more than enough to avoid the knife in 2015, but the amount of innings logged (1315) and pitches thrown (he once threw 742 pitches over six starts as a seventeen year old) in Japan before the age of 25 is alarming.
Off to a slow start in September, Tanaka will have a chance to rebound against the Orioles Tuesday night when he squares off against Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman.
Nathan Eovaldi
The Case For
Behind MLB’s best run support, Nathan Eovaldi, who took a loss against the Rays on Saturday, had not registered a loss since June 16 against his former team, the Miami Marlins, by which the right hander did not make it out of the first inning, yielding eight runs off nine hits.
Since that June start, Eovaldi, who then posted a 5.12 ERA on the year, shaved over a run off his ERA by August 24 (4.00), when he held the Astros scoreless over eight innings, an eventual 1-0 win at the Stadium. Several times in that start against Houston, Eovaldi hit triple digits with his fastball, which allowed him to strike out seven batters in convincing fashion.
In his twelve starts leading up to August 24, Eovaldi was 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA, sound enough for many to reconsider his status as merely a third starter in the rotation. Eovaldi would win three starts in August, boosting his record to 14-2 on the year, posting a win percentage (.875) over his first twenty six starts with New York that was bested only by Whitey Ford’s .900 win percentage (18-2) over his first twenty six start with the Yankees.
The Case Against
Despite his tear in July and August, Eovaldi’s numbers are rather unsightly. He is posting a 1.45 WHIP, allowing over ten hits and nearly three walks per nine innings. While his strikeout rate is the best of his career (7.1 SO/9 IP) and he is yielding far fewer home runs than Tanaka in twenty-four more innings pitched (10 to Tanaka’s 21), Eovaldi has mustered a below-average ERA+ (93), posting extremely poor marks on the road: a 5.21 ERA, .327 BAA, and .789 OPS in 14 starts.
Alas, his relative struggles on Saturday against Tampa Bay may have a been a sign of things to come, as the 25 year old will be out two weeks with an elbow issue, forcing Michael Pineda (10-8 with a 4.15 ERA in 22 starts) to make good on the promise of Friday’s start against Boston (by which he struck out seven over six innings, allowing one run in a quality start) despite his struggles Monday against Baltimore (allowing four runs over six innings in a start by which Greg Bird, with a three-run homer in the seventh inning, took him off the hook).
Luis Severino
The Case For
While the young Dominican is but 21 years old, Luis Severino’s performance and confidence have betrayed his age. Calling Severino up from Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre in late July has been the equivalent of a team dealing for an ace at the trade deadline.
Although he was winless in his first three starts, Severino did not let the unsettling start get the best of him: in his first six starts in the big leagues, Severino is showcasing better figures than David Price and Johnny Cueto, both of whom were acquired by the Jays and Royals respectively to bolster their team’s chances at a division title.
[su_youtube_advanced url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcU1t08Biag”]In 35 1/3 innings, Severino has struck out 34 batters, allowed just 28 hits, and mustered a dazzling 2.04 ERA, allowing the hurler to go 3-0 in his last three starts, posting a 0.73 ERA in his last two outings against the Braves and Rays.
Severino throws stuff reminiscent of a young Pedro Martinez and has not allowed the grind of a pennant race to hinder what he is capable of doing on the mound.
The Case Against
Tanaka and Eovaldi have logged 878.2 innings between them at the major league level. Severino has thrown less than four percent as many innings as that. While none of the three are playoff-tested in the majors, expecting a 21 year old to lead a staff into the postseason for the first time since 2012 is a gargantuan undertaking.
While his stuff is the filthiest of the three “aces” in question, Severino will be called upon to make at least five more starts the rest of the way, all of them against divisional or crosstown rivals, and perhaps another in a one-game, wild card elimination battle that could pit him against a big-game tested pitcher in Cole Hamels of the Texas Rangers.
In 2016 and beyond, Severino will earn the right to cement his status as a Yankee ace, but in 2015, calling upon the young star to lead a rotation is all sorts of ludicrous…just don’t tell him.