FIFA World Cup 2018 Knockout Round Preview: It’s officially ‘on’

Now that the 2018 FIFA World Cup has reached the knockout round, it’s officially on now. Here’s the full in-depth preview.

Uruguay vs. Portugal

The first match of the knockout stage will feature Group A winner Uruguay against Group B runner-up Portugal.

In what came as not too big of a shock, Uruguay won all three of its matches in arguably the weakest World Cup group. Uruguay has always prided itself on being a team with a prolific attack featuring Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani, but it was Uruguay’s defense that shined in the group stage. Anchored by center backs Diego Godin and Jose Maria Gimenez, Uruguay’s defense allowed a total of zero goals during the group stage.

Now, most people won’t put a lot of weight on this given a) the level of opposition and b) the fact that Uruguay’s keeper saw a mere seven shots on goal, but don’t discount the fact that Uruguay’s defense is now comfortable playing together. Is that enough to beat a team like Portugal? More on that later. But the path to victory for Uruguay is simple—attack Raphael Guerreiro and Bruno Soares out wide and put A lot of balls into Suarez and Cavani. Both must convert on their chances in order to force Cristiano Ronaldo to produce a spectacular performance.

On the other hand, Portugal employs the very sophisticated “Kicking and Screaming” strategy of “kick it to the Italians!” Except, in this case, the Italians are Cristiano Ronaldo, who has four goals so far. The fact that CR7 is carrying the squad is no surprise to people (honestly, let’s just be thankful he doesn’t have all the Portugal goals).

The 2016 Euro champions do have a tendency to play to the level of their competition (see 3-3 draw against Spain, 1-1 draw against Iran) and have not been past the round of 16 since 2006. This matchup is all about which Portugal shows up – is it the team that won the Euros, or the team that barely beat last-place Morocco? Either way, expect this match to be won or lost in the midfield for Portugal. Yes, we all know Cristiano is incredibly talented, but if Uruguay can possess the ball and convert its chances, it could be a very long afternoon for the Portuguese.

Matchup to Watch – Bernardo Silva vs. Diego Laxalt/Martin Caceres

Arguably a big surprise this World Cup is Bernardo Silva’s lack of form. In 35 appearances for Manchester City this past season (20 as a sub), Silva produced six goals and four assists. One would think he would fit perfectly into Portugal’s attack, but so far—no goals, no assists. He’s facing a matchup in either Diego Laxalt or Martin Caceres, which isn’t exactly intimidating. Laxalt is a hybrid midfielder/defender but played left back in Uruguay’s last match (Caceres had the other two starts).

Portugal could really use a solid outing from Silva, if for no other reason than to lift some weight off Cristiano Ronaldo’s already sore shoulders. However, if Silva doesn’t produce, Uruguay can be confident that it is literally placing the weight of the world on CR7’s shoulders and is giving itself the best chance to win.

Prediction – Uruguay 3, Portugal 2

Simply put, expect a back-and-forth match here. Portugal continues to rely on Ronaldo, but he also gets some help in this match. Uruguay has to concede at some point, and Ronaldo is just the guy to do it! However, Uruguay has history on its side, and its counter-attack is quite good. A late goal from Luis Suarez pushes Uruguay through to the quarterfinals.

Spain vs. Russia

Sunday’s slate of games starts with Group B winner Spain against Group A runner-up Russia.

In a big tournament surprise, Russia finessed its way out of Group A. On its home turf, a 5-0 pummeling of Saudi Arabia and a 3-1 win over Egypt showed the hosts know how to put the ball in the net. However, Russia failed to win its most important game, as no doubt they would have preferred Portugal’s defense over Spain’s. Forwards Denis Cheryshev (3 goals) and Artem Dzyuba (2 goals) will be tested to convert chances against a stout Spain defense.

If there’s any cause for concern for the Spaniards, it’s that Russia is playing out of its mind and home-field advantage might give Russia an undeniable inspiration. But if there’s anything to take away from the group stage, it’s that Russia is capable of beating worse teams, but struggles when facing stronger opposition. Russia will come into this match with a certain swagger (especially after Spain drew Morocco), but this will certainly be the toughest matchup Russia has faced.

Meanwhile, Spain staggered its way to the top of Group B with a very uncharacteristic group stage performance. Spain continued to prove a 3-6-1 formation can work as it had at least 60 percent possession in every match (yes Russia, you read that number right). But even with staggering possession totals, Spain tallied only six goals in three matches (three of which came from an unlikely customer in Diego Costa).

However, Spain simultaneously showed that its midfield is in great form and is capable of dominating possession. Isco, Inesta and David Silva will be formidable foes for Russia, who will see very little of the ball during the match. Furthermore, even a high-flying offense will face major problems against a solid back line in center-back-turned-forward Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique, Jordi Alba and Daniel Carvajal.

Matchup to Watch – Artem Dzyuba vs. Gerard Pique

It’s as simple as this—Dzyuba needs to have a great performance to guide Russia to victory and Gerard Pique has been facing more defensive responsibilities now that Sergio Ramos has decided to be hybrid defender/striker. Another piece to this puzzle stands between Spain’s goalposts – David de Gea. If Russia can break through for a goal and de Gea struggles, Spain may be heading to the beach sooner than it thinks. But if de Gea can stay steady and Spain dominates possession so much so that its defense faces no pressure, Russia will be relegated back to its parkas.

Prediction – Spain 3, Russia 0

As for an upset here, it’s going to be a nyet from me dawg. Russia’s Cinderella story comes to end as Spain dominates the Russian midfield and exposes its back line to have its best offensive game. Sergio Ramos rediscovers the CB next to his name on the team sheet as he and Pique shut down the Russian attack. De Gea makes no noticeable mistakes so as to not give the entire Spanish population a nervous breakdown.

France vs. Argentina

Saturday’s first match will feature Group C winner France against Group D runner-up Argentina.

Oh, boy are we in for a treat with this match! Much like Spain, France produced a very underwhelming performance during the group stage. Arguably the team with the most offensive talent, France managed to produce a total of 3 goals during its first three matches. One was an own goal, one was a lucky bounce to Kylian Mbappe and the third was Antoine Griezmann.

The 2016 Euro runner-up has armed itself with a boatload of offensive talent and a slightly average defense (go ahead, ask an average fan to name the two France fullbacks). Additionally, France did not exactly inspire high levels of confidence in its match against Denmark. Les Bleus (along with the Danish) basically did not attempt to score. What should worry the French contingent is that they are now facing a score-first, defend the last team in Argentina. Knowing that it may need to match its entire goal total for the group in order to win could be a tall task for this French side, especially after its last result. However, what should scare Lionel Messi and co. is that France has not produced its best offensive match to date.

In 2014, France put five on the board in the group stage against Switzerland before exiting in the quarters, and this team should be capable of a similar performance. Perhaps this match is what equips France with the knockout punch it needs to sustain a run, but it is crucial for France to start fast and score as many goals as humanly possible.

Argentina picked up a spot in the knockouts after Marcos Rojo saved them in the dying minutes against Nigeria. Argentina finally seemed to find its form against Iceland, realizing that Gonzalo Higuaín is preferable to Sergio Aguero. With that said, Argentina’s defense is still subject to its momentary lapses (I’m looking at you Nicolas Otamendi), and at the end of the day this is still Lionel Messi’s team. Bottom-line, this team’s result will be driven solely by Messi.

A great performance puts them through whereas a lackluster one sends them packing. As referenced earlier, Argentina should be concerned France has not exploded offensively yet, but they should also take solace knowing that France may not have that killer instinct just yet. Finally, for as weak as Argentina’s midfield may be, it has shown that it can possess the ball for extended periods of time whereas France has not been equally as successful. If Argentina can dominate possession and limit chances for the French, it’s hard to expect a disappointing result.

Matchup to Watch – N’Golo Kanté vs. Lionel Messi

Kanté is arguably one of the best holding midfielders in the entire tournament and Messi is a relentless attacker (as we well know). Kanté is going to bear a lot of responsibility to limit Messi’s chances and the Argentinian counter-attack in general. Presumably, Kanté’s holding midfield partner will be Paul Pogba, who loves the get forward.

Much like we saw in the Germany-Sweden match with Toni Kroos and Sebastian Rudy, Pogba will be just a crucial to this matchup and must responsibly choose when to attack and defend. If Pogba roams too far forward, it may expose Kanté and the French defense to Messi’s expertise, and, eventually, lead to the exit of Les Bleus.

Prediction – France 4, Argentina 3

Will this be the final score? Probably not, but a guy can dream. Either way, expect to see a breakout offensive performance from France and a relatively high-scoring match. Griezmann and Pogba lead the charge for France as Messi does his best to keep things close, but in the end, a late goal from France sets up a quarterfinal matchup with Uruguay. Afterward, Twitter explodes in anger as it is not granted a Messi-Ronaldo quarterfinal matchup it so desperately wanted.

Croatia vs. Denmark

Sunday’s second matchup will be Group D winner Croatia and Group C runner-up Denmark.

Finally, a matchup that doesn’t focus on the attack! Croatia won all three of its matches to finish atop Group D in one of the biggest surprises of the tournament thus far. Their squad is headlined by an elite midfield presence in Mateo Kovacic, Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic and Ivan Rakitic. The fact that Kovacic, a Real Madrid player, comes off the bench should be VERY alarming for Denmark. But Croatia’s talent is not limited to the midfield. Mario Mandzukic is the sole attacker and Marko Pjaca provides some much-needed depth in attack.

All told, this is a very solid matchup for the Croatians. Even though Modric leads the team in goals, expect him to slip into a more defensive role against Christian Eriksen, the prominent midfielder for Denmark. Croatia has already proven it’s capable of limiting a high-profile attacker after its 3-0 thumping of Lionel Messi and Argentina. On paper, this is a match made in heaven for Croatia, seeing as they’re playing with an insane level of confidence and Denmark has looked just average. If Croatia can control the midfield and continue its sustained pressure on attack, expect nothing but smooth sailing to the quarterfinals.

For Denmark, this match will require a very similar strategy to its last match against France – prevent defense. I’m not about to say they weren’t trying to score, but it sure looked like they were playing for a draw. A good rule of thumb for this team is that as Eriksen goes, so does the team. While they aren’t as inept as I’m making them out to be, it will take heroic efforts from Eriksen, center back Andreas Christensen and goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel in order to knock off the hottest team at the World Cup.

Schmeichel is absolutely capable of standing on his head and making a boatload of saves if called upon, but Croatia’s attack is relentless. Furthermore, it’s hard to see a gameplay strategy that favors Denmark, who have scored only two goals so far. Schmeichel has kept them alive, but it’s hard to see Denmark reaching the quarterfinals.

Matchup to Watch – Andreas Christensen vs. Mario Mandzukic/Ivan Rakitic

Christensen is a reliable center back in Denmark’s scheme and has anchored the Danish defense so far. Denmark manager Aage Hareide went so far as to move him into a defensive midfield role against France. Should he continue in that role, his primary assignment will be attacking mid-Ivan Rakitic, while in his normal center back role it will be Mario Mandzukic.

In either scenario, Christensen must be effective at taking away a scoring option for Croatia in order to give his side a chance to grab a goal. The problem for the Danes is that even with taking away Rakitic/Mandzukic, Croatia still have plenty of options to exploit the rest of the Denmark defense.

Prediction – Croatia 3, Denmark 1

Croatia continues its strong play as Denmark struggles to contain Croatia’s relentless attack. Croatia’s midfield dominates the ball and produces two of three Croatia goals. Denmark puts forth a valiant effort as Schmeichel attempts to do his best Tim Howard impression. Eriksen grabs a goal for the Danes in garbage time but his side has too many defensive gaps to compete with Croatia.

Brazil vs. Mexico

Monday’s first match will include Group E winner Brazil against Group F runner-up Mexico.

Perhaps what has been surprising on the part of Brazil so far has been not their ability to attack, but to defend. Brazil enter this matchup having conceded only once to Switzerland in its first matchup, second only to Group A winners Uruguay. We all know Brazil has a stout attack featuring Neymar, Philippe Coutinho and Gabriel Jesus up front, but its back line of Marcelo, Miranda, Thiago Silva and Fagner has successfully limited opponents. Granted, goalkeeper Alisson has faced THREE total shots on goal. On the flip side, Mexico’s goalie Guillermo Ochoa leads the tournament in saves and has been a rock in goal for Mexico. However, much like the French side, Brazil hasn’t produced an explosive offensive performance yet.

Jesus has been held off the scoresheet, Neymar has found the back of the net once and Coutinho leads the team with two tallies. While Brazil’s offensive talent is not limited to those three individuals, it’s imperative for those three to find their groove. Perhaps the prospect of facing the tournament’s hottest goalkeeper will force Brazil to be more creative on attack to maximize chances on the part of the aforementioned trio.

Group F runner-up Mexico started its campaign with a shocking upset of 2014 champion Germany, and aside from its 3-0 defeat at the hands of Sweden, Mexico has been among the most consistent squads thus far. However, history is not on Mexico’s side. Mexico has advanced to the round of 16 in every World Cup since 1994 but have never been to the quarterfinals in that timeframe. Additionally, Mexico enters the knockout rounds with the second-worst goal differential among teams that qualified, and they’re now playing a team that prides itself on its attack.

With that said, Mexico’s strategy against the German side will provide them a roadmap for grabbing another upset. El Tri will need another outstanding performance out of Guillermo Ochoa in order to advance past the Brazilians. Look for Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and Hirving Lozano to guide the Mexican attack, but this matchup is looking bleak for Mexico.

Matchup to Watch – The Brazilian Attack vs. Guillermo Ochoa

This matchup comes down to one thing—can Guillermo Ochoa stand on his head and shut down Brazil’s offense? While no goal in the Sweden match was explicitly Ochoa’s fault, the Mexican goalkeeper will need to find his form from the first two matches in order to give his side a chance.

Brazil’s attack will need to reach peak form in order to challenge the Mexican keeper and must look to El Tri’s match against Sweden as a blueprint for success. Brazil must automatically assume Ochoa’s mindset will be that of keeping balls out of his net at all costs and adjust appropriately in order to generate high-quality chances.

Prediction – Brazil 2, Mexico 1

The last time Brazil failed to reach the quarterfinals was 1990. Mexico will be a popular upset pick here given its result against Germany, but Brazil looks the part of a more unified side. Mexico will force Ochoa to make a lot of saves, and he will, but Brazil will create enough chances to advance to the quarterfinals. After the match, Mexico will repeatedly curse itself out as to how it never reaches the quarters, and Landon Donovan will have to pick a new team.

Sweden vs. Switzerland

Tuesday’s first match is surprising Group F winner Sweden against Group E runner-up Switzerland.

The biggest surprise of Group F came in Germany failing to advance, but arguably the second biggest surprise was Sweden winning the group. Even though Sweden lacks a star on its team, this team shows no glaring weaknesses. The name Sweden fans will point to as the leader of the group is Emil Forsberg, a midfielder essential to Sweden’s attack. Forsberg is facing a favorable matchup in 34-year-old right back Stephan Lichtsteiner and will undoubtedly be chomping at the bit to get his first goal of the World Cup.

Aside from Forsberg, Sweden’s roster does not feature any high-profile names, but it has prided itself on sitting back and having an outstanding counterpunch (just ask Toni Kroos about that). Switzerland has shown it can possess the ball, but not on the same level as Germany or Mexico. As a result, Sweden will enter this match with confidence knowing Switzerland’s holding midfielders must be disciplined enough to not make mistakes.

The Swiss side arrives at this matchup having escaped Group E with a win and two draws, one to group winner Brazil. Switzerland’s group has its fair share of high-profile names, most notably midfielder Xherdan Shaqiri and defender Ricardo Rodríguez. Additionally, Switzerland’s attack is very balanced, as evidenced by five different players scoring its five goals. Moreover, Switzerland brings an eight-game unbeaten streak into this match on the international level.

A comeback victory against Serbia undoubtedly propelled the Swiss into the knockouts. For Switzerland to win, Granit Xhaka will need to play his best game of the tournament. Switzerland will rely on him to contribute to the counter-attack and limit his mistakes to prevent Sweden from grabbing goals. If Xhaka can accomplish this, Switzerland will be able to effectively possess the ball and limit Sweden’s offensive prowess.

Matchup to Watch – Emil Forsberg vs. Stephan Lichtsteiner

As referenced earlier, Forsberg is still looking for his first goal of the World Cup and the matchup against Lichtsteiner gives him his best chance. The 34-year-old right back can be subject to defensive lapses at times, and Sweden must be conscious of Forsberg’s matchup.

Similar to Xhaka, Lichtsteiner will have to limit his defensive mishaps and be cognizant of moving too far forward. Switzerland’s coaching staff will obviously be aware of Sweden’s strategy, but defensive discipline is a must on all fronts, especially for Lichtsteiner.

Prediction – Sweden 1, Switzerland 1 (Switzerland advances on PKs)

This matchup is pretty even when it comes to the two sides, and I think we’ll see that on Tuesday. Switzerland will dominate possession, but it’s hard to see a scenario where they don’t give up at least one goal. However, expect Switzerland to extend its unbeaten streak to nine after a win in extra time. Shaqiri will lead the way offensively and send the Swiss to the quarterfinals.

Columbia vs. England

In Tuesday’s second match, Group H winner Columbia will face off against Group G runner-up England.

This matchup has the chance to be one of the best games of this round … if James Rodríguez plays. After losing its first match, Columbia enters this match on a two-game winning streak. However, a calf injury to its best player could spell trouble against a powerful England side. In addition to Rodríguez, the Columbians bring a strong attack with them to the knockouts. Radamel Falcao and Juan Cuadrado provide great assistance, as do the side’s two center backs (Yerry Mina and Davinson Sánchez) when it comes to set pieces. And if there’s any aspect of England’s game that can be exploited, it’s set piece defense.

Columbia scored on a set piece in each group stage match and even without Rodríguez, it knows it’s capable of scoring such goals. Look for Columbia to come out flying either way, especially against a strong side in England.

England finished second in its group after losing to Belgium in its final match (granted, the match did not feature either side’s best players). Early Golden Boot candidate Harry Kane leads the side with five goals, and a 6-1 pummeling of Panama officially launched the side into the knockouts. After failing to make the round of 16 in 2014, the Three Lions pride itself on a tenacious attack. Much like Columbia, England’s set pieces are a sight to be seen.

Half of England’s eight goals came on set pieces, and the English are second only to Belgium in goals scored. For as much as Columbia relies on its attack, its defense is strong as well, so for England to win, it must bring the best version of its attack.

Matchup to Watch – Harry Kane vs. Davinson Sánchez

Sánchez will most likely draw the primary defensive matchup against Harry Kane. The Tottenham teammates know each other well, and Sánchez must limit Kane’s chances in the open field. Furthermore, Kane plays a crucial role when it comes to England set pieces, so it’s necessary for Columbia to be a strong defensive unit and deny Kane chances on corners and free kicks.

England has proven its offense revolves around Kane, and if Sánchez can force other players to beat Columbia, then it will be confident it can get a positive result.

Prediction – England 2, Columbia 1

England produces a comeback victory as Kane continues his pursuit of the Golden Boot. Columbia converts an early set piece to take the lead at the half, but England remembers what awaits them at home if they lose. A late Dele Alli goal sends the English to the quarterfinal and the Columbians back to its tropical paradise.

Belgium vs. Japan

In Monday’s second match, Group G winner Belgium will take on Group H runner-up Japan.

Having won all three of its matches, Belgium arrives at its round of 16-match with the most goals scored in the group stage. Simply put, the Belgian attack is one to be reckoned with. Yannick Carrasco, Kevin de Bruyne, Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Dries Mertens may constitute the best set of five attackers in the tournament.

Oh, and Belgium also has Thibaut Courtois in goal … no pressure @Japan.

Lukaku is another Golden Boot candidate with four goals in the group stage. Additionally, Belgium had assists on seven of its nine goals. With ALL that said, we’ve never really seen Belgium live up to its potential. Will this be the year it finally makes a run? It starts with this match against Japan, which looks pretty favorable on paper. Expect the Belgians to throw a lot of shots at the target and overwhelm this Japanese side.

As for Japan, it’s looking pretty bleak. The Japanese advanced to the round of 16 on fair play over Senegal. This side is led by Keisuke Honda (yes, he’s still playing), and have just been so-so all around thus far. Like Sweden, Japan doesn’t do anything extremely well, but they also don’t do anything poorly. Japan had the third-worst goal differential among the teams to make the knockout round and now faces a Belgium side with the best goal differential. Short of a complete meltdown by Belgium, it’s hard to see a formula for the Japanese to win.

Matchup to Watch – Jan Vertonghen/Vincent Kompany vs. Shinji Kagawa

For Japan to win, Kagawa has to shine. Kagawa will likely play in a no. 10 role against the Belgium back three. Kagawa, who has one goal for Japan so far, will most likely face off against one of Belgium’s stronger defenders in Vertonghen or Kompany. If Kagawa can produce a heroic performance, he can give Japan a chance to win.

Prediction – Belgium 4, Japan 1

As stated earlier, it’s hard to see the Japanese coming out on top here. Belgium is too good and brings a lot of confidence into this matchup, and Japan doesn’t have enough firepower to match up with Lukaku and co. Lukaku grabs another goal in pursuit of the Golden Boot, and Belgium sets up a quarterfinal matchup with Brazil.