Super Bowl 51 will throw the freshness of Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons against Tom Brady‘s New England Patriots striving for immortality.
- New England Patriots (16-2)
- Atlanta Falcons (13-5)
- Super Bowl 51, Feb. 5, 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
- NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
That’s just the idea of the event. When it comes to the actual game, it’s anybody’s best guess what will transpire.
The two participants couldn’t be more contrasting.
The New England Patriots come in as the bulls, the historians who’ve been there, done that in more ways than one. They come in looking for a fifth Lombardy trophy, one that’ll break the four-way tie with the likes of Chuck Noll‘s Pittsburgh Steelers and Joe Montana‘s San Francisco 49ers.
The Atlanta Falcons come in as the fresh face, the new kids on the block who’d love to knock off the vets and represent a new powerhouse in the NFL. Matt Ryan, the veteran QB who’s always possessed talent yet could never reach that mountaintop, finally feels the moment.
Two completely different storylines, one game.
Here’s ESNY’s official Super Bowl 51 preview:
Injury Report
Both teams come into the big game relatively healthy. Tom Brady is no longer on the injury report with a shoulder, praise the lord. But each and every player on the report is listed as questionable. All are expected to play.
For Atlanta, Julio Jones‘s presence on the report may scare a few fans in the dirty south, but if you think he’s missing this game with a toe you have another thing coming.
Falcons center Alex Mack is the one concern heading into Sunday. His fibula bang up has had him limited all week. Coaches and trainers are optimistic that he will suit up and play at a high level.
There are no significant injuries heading into the game of note.
The Pats Strategy
The one great facet about Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots is that they don’t possess that one extraordinary strength that would ordinary pigeonhole them.
Two decades ago and further, NFL teams were always looked upon as having one great strength. The 80s Chicago Bears were defense. The 80s 49ers were that high-flying dime you to death West Coast offense. The 60s Cleveland Browns showcased a running game that would pound you into submission.
Belichick’s Pats can’t be identified. In fact, their greatest strength lies in the idea that they could play in any fashion the game plan calls for. This chameleon-like identity is Bill Belichick’s greatest service to the history of the NFL.
The question is, “What will they do in this game?”
Take out Julio Jones
Make no mistake about it, the matchup of the game is the NFL’s No. 1 ranked scoring offense in the Falcons taking on the No. 1 scoring defense in the Pats. Knowing Belichick and his defensive principles, expect Julio Jones to be taken out.
Malcolm Butler will probably stay away from Jones. Instead, he’ll probably follow Mohamed Sanu all over the field in a one-on-one, rarely help coverage situation.
Expect Logan Ryan to take Jones with plenty of help coverage over the top on every play. This strategy is such a rare occurrence in this league yet few have the balls to deploy it. Unless he surprises us, Belichick will probably take this angle against Atlanta.
Challenge the run
In making sure there’s over-the-top help on Jones, the Pats run defense will severely be put to the test against the fifth-ranked run offense in the league.
All things considered, this is where Belichick will take his chances.
If New England can slow down Atlanta’s running game with seven in the box early, they will be equipped with one serious advantage the rest of the way. Kyle Shanahan may feel pressure to get away from the run while forcing Matt Ryan into uneasy situations through the air.
Think Super Bowl XXV when Belichick deployed the big nickel against Jim Kelly‘s K-Gun the entire night. He allowed Thurman Thomas to run wild yet never gave up the big play through the air.
Pound the rock
Leave it up to Belichick and Tom Brady to decide their best course of action against this Falcons defense is not to chip ’em through the air, as they usually do, but to come out in a big formation and pound the rock with LeGarrette Blount.
Don’t be surprised to see the Pats run, run and run some more early and often. What Josh McDaniels would love to do is put a shock factor into Atlanta’s defense early and then go from there.
The Falcons Strategy
This is where things get interesting. While the Pats look to adapt their game depending on opponent, the Falcons are what they are — for the most part.
Atlanta’s an explosive play waiting to happen on offense. Defensively, is where things become quite concerning.
Dan Quinn’s unit ranked 25th in the league in total yards allowed this season. This is not good. At the same time, they do possess a few high-flyers who can rush the passer and make plays.
Pressure up the middle
It’s no secret how to defeat Tom Brady: get pressure in a conventional fashion. Get pressure with a four-man front and especially up the middle with defensive tackles.
When Justin Tuck did this during the first Pats-Giants Super Bowl, Brady struggled all game long. No. 12 hates pressure in his face and Steve Spangulo’s NASCAR look was the ticket they rode. He can’t handle it. In fact, the Houston Texans did this in an admirable way three weeks ago during the divisional round.
Can Jonathan Babineaux and/or Tyson Jackson get to Brady up the middle with a conventional four-man rush?
Pressure all over the place
While the big heavies up front will look to get to Brady without a blitz, forcing Brady’s hand into going downfield will be critical for Atlanta’s success defensively.
Quinn must take a queue from his Seattle days and pressure each weapon from left to right.
Bump-and-run with Julian Edelman, chip Martellus Bennett, and play with one safety deep while daring Brady to challenge downfield. Take away the dunk and dunk garbage and force McDaniels to do something different early.
Devonta Freeman running wild
In expecting Belichick to take out Jones with two and play to the idea that Alex Mack is banged up, Kyle Shanahan allowing Devonta Freeman the chance to cut up the Pats front seven can go a long way in forcing Belichick’s hand defensively.
This solid Atlanta offensive line must dominate. If they don’t, this Pats strategy will strangle the Falcons offense all night.
Players to Watch
LeGarrette Blount
Listen … LeGarrette Blount may just be unleashed early and often. He’s not a stud, by any means, but he, along with the five heavies up front, could hold the key in screwing up everything Dan Quinn wants to do defensively.
Quinn will want to pressure all over the field while leaving seven in the box. If the Pats run game can dominate that look, Brady and the passing game will be flying high the rest of the night.
Atlanta ranked 15th in the NFL in rush defense during the season. Worse yet, they ranked fifth to last in pass defense.
Expect Quinn to play heavy pass defense early and Blount to capitalize on those fears.
Chris Hogan
Among the Pats wide receivers, this guy is the lone deep threat.
His name is Chris Hogan and he’ll enjoy another stellar football game. Only this time, it’ll come on the world’s biggest stage.
The Falcons will look to force Brady’s hand in looking downfield. Brady will oblige and find Hogan on a few deep shots.
Final Thoughts, Predictions
I just do not trust this Atlanta Falcons defense. Yes, Dan Quinn can coach ’em up with the best of them on that side of the ball. But look up and down the depth chart: these guys aren’t prime time.
When looking at all four of the top units, the Falcons defense is the lone unit not up to snuff. It just isn’t Super Bowl worthy — and beating a banged up Green Bay Packers squad at home doesn’t make it the case.
Through Brady’s first six Super Bowls, his team has always played close contests. It’s just part of their DNA.
Super Bowl 51 will be the one big game that sees New England coast from start to finish.
Only once has a No. 1 scoring offense defeated a No. 1 scoring offense in the Super Bowl. It happened in 1989 when Joe Montana’s 49ers trounced John Elway‘s Broncos.
On Sunday in Houston, that won’t happen.
Blount will see success early and Brady will toss around the lot the final three quarters. Defensively, New England will have enough to stifle Atlanta’s high-powered offense.
It won’t be a complete disaster of a rout, but it’ll be comfortable for the Pats as Brady and Belichick pick up their fifth Lombardi.
Patriots 34, Falcons 16
MVP: Tom Brady
ESNY Staff Predictions
Christian Kouroupakis
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Final Score: 38-35
Super Bowl MVP: Chris Hogan (#WeAre)
Billy Nayden
Super Bowl Champions: Falcons
Final Score: 35-28
Super Bowl MVP: Matt Ryan
An absolute shootout that comes down to the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Last team with the ball wins.
Skylar Darel
Super Bowl Champions: Falcons
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Falcons
Final Score: 28-24
Super Bowl MVP: Julio Jones
Allison Case
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Patriots
Final Score: 28-24
Super Bowl MVP: LeGarrette Blount
Sticking with the early prediction. The Patriots are just too experienced and we all know Bill Belichick has a few tricks up his sleeve. It’ll be a fun game to watch, but the Patriots will not slow down on the Tom Brady Revenge Tour.
Garrett Ey
Super Bowl Champions: Atlanta Falcons
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Atlanta Falcons (OUT….RIGHT!)
Final Score: 24-20
Super Bowl MVP: Tevin Coleman
This will be a game that is won in the trenches. The Atlanta Falcons Wide Receivers are going to open up some space for the star running back tandem of Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Both are excellent in the passing game, so expect to see the short passing game utilized frequently. As I see a great game by both backs, I think the constant pounding that Tevin Coleman can apply to a defense will be the difference in the game.
Chris Boccia
Super Bowl Champions: New England Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Pats (-11)
Final Score: Patriots 31, Falcons 20
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
Hate to follow the herd on Super Bowl predictions, but – it’s Patriots, Patriots, and some more Patriots. Belichick and Brady. Tried and tested. It’s almost become a routine to see the Pats donning Super Bowl stripes on the year’s most popular sporting event, but expect to see those familiar faces hoisting the Lombardi Trophy again. It was fun while it lasted for Atlanta, and football collectively hopes the run won’t end on Sunday. The Pats will have other plans, though. Under Brady’s steady hands, New England captures Super Bowl 51 by a score of 31-20. Here’s to dynasties, I guess.
Patrick Hennessy
Super Bowl Champions: New England Patriots
Final Score: 27-14
Matt O’Leary
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Patriots
Final Score: 28-24
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
This will be a back and forth game, but the experienced Tom Brady will have the poise, in the end, to get it done. Brady will lead his team down the field for a late score to give the Pats a lead. His defense will seal the win with a Rob Ninkovich strip sack.
Frank Ramsay
Super Bowl Champions: Falcons
Final Score: 35-24
Super Bowl MVP: Devonta Freeman
Matt Leach
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Final Score: 27-23
Bill Belichick always finds a way to slow down a high-powered offense in the Super Bowl.
Alex Jordan
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Final Score:34-28
Derek Radich
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Patriots
Final Score: 31-24
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
Greg Slotnick
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Patriots
Final Score: 31-24
Super Bowl MVP: Dion Lewis
As a Jets fan, it pains me to do this. But we’ve seen it too many times before. Brady will be heroic and Bill Vader will scheme it up to give the Pats every tiny advantage they can get. While Julio will still get his, they’ll double him and keep him in the 8-10 for 90-110 range, while (attempting) to limit the big plays. Close game late until Dion breaks one off. Goodell’s worst nightmare come true.
Jon Rosenstein
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Patriots
Final Score: 27-23
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
Both teams are led by their star quarterbacks with explosive weapons on offense. However, as it does so many times in the big game, it will come down to defense. While the Falcons have a very good pass rush (led by the NFL sack leader Vic Beasley), the Patriots had the #1 scoring defense in the NFL this season. Their stout defense along with a masterful game plan drawn up by Bill Belichick will lead them to a close victory over a strong Falcons opponent. The MVP will be Tom Brady, whose fifth Lombardi will catapult him into a category of his own in NFL lure.
Vin Vento
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Patriots
Final Score: Pats 32, Falcons 25
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
Matt Castillo
Super Bowl Prediction: Patriots 34, Falcons 23
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
The Patriots offense will be too much to handle for the Falcons defense. Look for Matt Ryan to make a few plays with his star wideout Julio Jones. But in the end, Tom Brady and his multiple weapons will help the Patriots pull away. The only way to beat the Patriots is to have an elite defense.The Falcons have a solid one but not good enough to slow down the Patriots.
Brady has been out for revenge after the “Deflategate” suspension since the moment he took the field in week five he has been picking apart secondaries.Look for Brady to have a huge game as the Patriots bring home their fifth Super Bowl trophy in franchise history.
David Hong
Super Bowl Prediction: Falcons 28 Patriots 21
It will be a high scoring game. Both team’s offenses will be on just like it was all season. Game will come down to who has the final possession. Brady has been there many times but this time Matty Ice will have final possession and he will throw the game winning to Julio Jones over Malcolm Butler and Atlanta will win their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Brandon Estrict
Super Bowl Champions: New England Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Patriots
Final Score: Patriots 31, Falcons 27
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady for a record 4th time
Ryan Long
Super Bowl Champions: Falcons
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Falcons
Final Score: 31-23
Super Bowl MVP: Matt Ryan
In a classic matchup of top offense against great defense, Matt Ryan and the Falcons outlast the Patriots, stopping Tom Brady from earning a legacy stamping 5th Super Bowl. The Patriots fail to contain all of the weapons the Falcons have to offer.
Anthony Pugliese
Super Bowl Champions: Falcons
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Falcons
Final Score: 31-27
Super Bowl MVP: Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan continues his MVP-caliber season with a close victory over the New England Patriots to give the Flacons their first Super Bowl title.
Leslie Monteiro
Super Bowl Champions: Falcons
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): (Falcons +6)
Final Score: 37-31
Super Bowl MVP: The pride of Rutgers Mohammed Sanu
I am going with the Falcons because their offense is versatile and multifaceted for New England to stop. You have to pick your poison on who to stop. If Pats stop Julio Jones, then Mohammed Sanu or Taylor Gabriel be the beneficiary of Julio being stopped by catching passes. Falcons have a good running game in Coleman. Their linemen are good enough to get to Brady. Look for Vic Beasley, Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and the ageless Dwight Freeney to frustrate Brady.
Luke Becker
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Final Score: 31-27
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
Donny Savitsky
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Final Score: 35-24
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady
Will Cochrane
Super Bowl Champions: Patriots
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Falcons Tight game
Final Score: Patriots 27 Falcons 26
Super Bowl MVP: Chris Hogan
This is a very great matchup. Both were the Best of their conferences. Everyone is forgetting these two teams can also play defense. So we will see it ALL in this one, Somewhere somehow, it will be the Patriots and Tom Brady winning another. Their fifth Superbowl. 1 away from the most Pittsburgh Stellers.
Bryan Fried
Super Bowl Champions: Falcons
Winner against the spread (Pats -3): Falcons
Final Score: 38-30
Super Bowl MVP: Matt Ryan