The final two spots in the New York Yankees’ rotation will be decided among five contestants, but who has the edge?
It’s time to gear our attention towards the final rotation battle for the New York Yankees, which will surely grab most of the recognition throughout Spring Training.Behind the apparent locks in Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda, manager Joe Girardi and his staff must choose between five other candidates in order to fill the final two vacated spots.
While other youngsters may find their way into the picture, Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell and Adam Warren have excellent chances at earning their way onto the Opening Day roster as a starter.
Last year, the unit finished sixth in the American League in strikeouts, eighth in opponent’s batting average, tenth in ERA and walked the fewest batters.
Respectable given the concern it packs, but being the obvious weak link of this Yankees’ team, they’ll have to piece (or at least attempt) together a crew that can improve those rankings.
Without further adieu, ESNY breaks down each candidate and will even make a prediction of how we see this competition playing out.
Luis Severino
Entering 2016, Yankee-land assumed they had their “future ace” and the leader of the Baby Bombers.
Unfortunately, things didn’t work out in Luis Severino’s sophomore season, as his 5-3 record and 2.89 ERA in 11 starts from ’15 was not built on as it was anticipated.
In the same number of starts (11), the 22-year old went 0-8 with an 8.50 ERA while serving up 11 home runs and 70 hits in 47.2 innings of work in 2016. His opponent’s batting average also spiked from .229 to .337.
Following a couple of demotions to the minors, Sevvy pitched in 23.1 innings out of the bullpen and held opponents to a .105/.209/.158 slash line, while maintaining a 0.39 ERA and striking out 25.
We’ve mapped out why Severino does so well in relief and why a move to a ‘pen role shouldn’t be unwelcomed in the future, but the truth of the matter is a 22-year old shouldn’t be given up on just yet.
Sharpening his changeup to complement his electric fastball and slider, which produces an extreme number of groundballs, could bring back the results we saw in 2015.
In his rookie campaign, Severino used his changeup 14.55 percent and his fastball 51.4 percent of the time which, thanks to a healthy mix, helped his fastball maintain a .258 batting average against, according to Brooks Baseball.
Last season, however, the use of his changeup dropped into the single-digits while his fastball usage increased to 56% (slider usage did not vary).
With that, we saw a spike in opponent’s batting average off the right’s fastball to .302.
Think that mix (or lack thereof) doesn’t mean much? First off, these are major league hitters and they can adjust flawlessly to even the best fastballs without a wholesome mix, but when facing batters for the first time in 2016, they hit .237 off his fastball, .182 off his changeup and .135 off of his slider.
For the third (or more) time, batters hit .278 off Severino’s fastball, .500 off his changeup, and .313 off his slider.
Basically, his usage didn’t allow his pitches “fool” major league batters more than once in a game, but if Severino can sharpen his toolset into Spring Training, he should be able to return to the version we saw in his first cup of coffee.
Chad Green
The 25-year-old showed some neat signs of encouragement in 2016.
In three starts between August 3 and August 21, against the New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels, Chad Green struck out 18 batters over 15.2 innings while only giving up four runs (2.30 ERA).
After that, however, Green gave up four home runs in his final two starts before being shut down with right elbow pain. With a healthy Green and Spring Training right around the corner, he has a shot to earn his spot in the rotation.
Last season, Green relied heavily on his fastball (39.23 percent according to Brooks Baseball) and while it has some life at 95 m.p.h., his opposition hit .295 off the pitch including an isolated power against average of .359.
This comes as no surprise.
In a scouting report conducted in 2015 by Baseball Prospectus, Tucker Blair stated that Green’s fastball “lacks the movement and deception to provide consistent value” and that it was easily barreled when he missed spots.” Kind of like here:
In the first piece of highlight, you could see Gary Sanchez place his glove towards the outside part of the plate before the pitch ran into the wheelhouse of Orioles slugger Pedro Alvarez. Next thing you know, it headed towards Eutaw Street.
Prospectus also claims that the fastball would see improvements if moved to the pen, where he can throw max effort and there was evidence last season that the shift could be a benefactor.
In 9.1 innings in relief, Green notched a save, finished four total games and did not allow a single earned run while averaging 2.2 innings per appearance.
In that span, the righty used his fastball a whopping 50.96 percent of the time and induced an isolated power against of zero. Perhaps a long-relief role could suit Green, and the Yankees, much greater.
Luis Cessa
Following his major league debut on April 8, 2016, and settling in a rotation spot by August 20, Cessa showed encouragement but didn’t necessarily impress down the stretch.
In nine starts, the 24-year old right-hander pitched to a 4.01 ERA and only struck out 35 batters in 51.2 innings. He also gave up 11 home runs, but with a slider that usually induces a terrific number of groundballs (rate of 64.15 groundballs per BIP), he may be able to clean that number up in the future.
One aspect that Cessa has that impresses, is his ability to touch 95 m.p.h. with his fastball on a regular basis and compliment it with a changeup, curveball and slider.
With that mix, in ’16, batters hit .256 off his fastball, .217 off his change, .217 off his slider and .364 off his curveball — a pitch Cessa used merely 11.13 percent of the time — in his nine starts.
Overall, the shortstop-turned-pitcher has a strong arm, a good sinking fastball with excellent command and control.
Cessa’s secondary pitches aren’t at the level of his fastball yet as, when he misses, he misses big and he misses over the plate. He profiles best as a spot starter or a long relief role, similarly to pretty much all the other contestants for the Yankees’ rotation.
Bryan Mitchell
With some bad injury luck, Bryan Mitchell has been helpless in securing a spot he may have deserved following a strong showcase a year ago.
After going 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA in Spring Training last year, Mitchell would throw just 46 total innings between the minors and majors in 2016 after suffering a broken toe right before the regular season began.
Making his first regular-season appearance on September 7 against the Blue Jays, the 25-year old finished with a 3.24 ERA in five starts at the end of the year.
That stretch included a start in which he hurled seven innings of two-hit, no-run ball against the AL East-winning Boston Red Sox and entering 2017, he’ll have a chance to permanently earn that spot.
With a fastball that peaks at 97 m.p.h. (averages 95) Mitchell’s arsenal includes a cutter, curve with an occasional mix of a sinker and a rare changeup.
While he has the tools to succeed as a major league starter, Mitchell has always struggled with control (4.2 BB/9) which profiles the righty as a swing guy who is used out of the bullpen and to spot-start when needed.
Adam Warren
Warren, no matter what Cashman says about his rotation status, has made his money in the long-relief role.
Over his five-year career, the 29-year old owns a 3.88 ERA and a 6.6 K/9 ratio as a starter compared to 3.51 ERA and 8.0 K/9 ratio as a reliever.
However, in 2015, after making his way onto the 25-man roster as the fifth starter, Warren made 17 starts and went 6-6 with a 3.66 ERA including a strikeout per nine innings rate of 6.3. Notably, his strikeout rate was 9.4 that year out of the ‘pen.
Now, the reason why he’s considered, by many, to be an afterthought in this competition is because of not only the better numbers in a long-relief role, but because his versatility may be too valuable to lock into one spot.
The Yankees have the ability to constantly shift Warren, who’s experienced in this swing role, back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen without the need to hold any of the younger kid’s hands as they learn to conform to life in that sort of role.
Who Should Get The Final Spots?
The problem with these candidates is that they all profile well as long relievers at the current stage of their major league careers.
With that considered, I’m sticking with what was originally predicted in the “Spring Training battles preview” slideshow and say Severino and Cessa, bearing any injuries, should be the frontrunners.
It’s just too unfair to give up on Severino as a starter (a young kid with a glaring issue that can certainly be fixed) and when you zero-in at the final four candidates, Cessa has the most impressive repertoire to succeed at the major league level.
While not likely out of the gate, you could also see Dietrich Enns, Jordan Montgomery, James Kaprielian or even Chance Adams make things interesting as the season progresses.
Just take note that, other than the scouting reports/facts explained on each pitcher, that the final prediction is nothing written in stone. In fact, with the many questions surrounding this aspect of the New York Yankees, don’t count on anything.
Yankees’ saw 22 starts made by hurlers that weren’t even in the rotation to start the 2016 season, and expect the platoon to vary yet again.