The 2017 New York Mets’ X-factors: What needs to go right

If the New York Mets want to make the playoffs for a third straight season, there’s a few guys who really have to come up big.

New York Mets fans know the story all too well. Overwhelming preseason predictions – concocted through sometimes delusional fan optimism – are quickly shot down by disabled list stints and underwhelming play on the Citi Field grass and dirt.

But look out, as this Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins-led squad has reached the postseason each of the last two seasons for just the second time in franchise history.

Team leaders in Yoenis Cespedes, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and Matt Harvey have been, and still are, all but locks to have All-Star level seasons as long as health isn’t an issue.

Beyond that bunch, there’s plenty of talent and big-time ability, but a cloud off uncertainty hovers over a few guys that could make or break the 2017 season based on their performances.

Those players are what we call the X-factors for the team in Queens.

Jay Bruce has to hit

Now while there is a strong possibility that Jay Bruce is traded before the start of Spring Training, if he remains on the roster for the entirety of 2017, he’ll have to play like he did during the last month of 2016 – including a .263/.333/.513 line with six homers and 13 RBIs –  to give the Mets another power bat.

Cespedes has clearly been in need of a partner-in-crime since his arrival in Queens via trade from the Detroit Tigers two seasons ago. Bruce began to show flashes of that ability last season, just when the offense exploded enough to propel the Mets to the postseason.

Although fans have been calling for his head ever since his paltry August after coming over from Cincinnati, Bruce has been a proven bat in this league for nine years. To the surprise of many, he has finished in the top-10 of the National League Most Valuable Player vote twice during that time, along with eight 21-plus home run years as well.

At almost 30-years-old, Bruce should have plenty left in the tank to boost the Mets’ lineup if he remains in Queens, and chances are Cespedes can’t wait for that.

Where is Conforto at?

Well he showed up in April at least, that’s for sure. A .365 average, 15 runs, 11 doubles, four home runs, and 18 RBIs is quite the opening to a season.

But that success was short lived, as Michael Conforto completely fell off the rest of the season, getting crushed by lefties and breaking balls in a young Lucas Duda-esque fashion.

His month-long punishment to Triple-A Las Vegas showed team brass what the 2014 first-round pick is capable of though, as he mashed Pacific Coast League pitching to the tune of a whopping eight doubles, two triples, nine homers, 28 RBIs, and a .422 average in only 33 games.

Conforto’s X-factor status relies heavily on whether Bruce remains in blue and orange in 2017, as otherwise he doesn’t project to have a ton of playing time with Grandy, Bruce, and Yo lined up in the outfield. But keep an eye on Mets management reportedly planning on giving the 6-foot-1 lefty time at first base – where he could possibly relieve an oft struggling and injured Duda.

Grandy’s hungry for some rib-eyes

This could be perhaps the biggest under-the-radar necessary change that the Mets need to become a stronger lineup. Curtis Granderson projects to bat near or at the top of the lineup next year, and he needs more RBIs there. Badly.

His absurdly weak 59 rib-eyes in 2016 set a record for the lowest RBI total in a 30 homer season in MLB history. So a .152 average with runners in scoring position needs to improve in order for the Metropolitans to gain hitting ground in the NL.

The Grandy-man had no such issue in 2015, hitting .297 with a .950 OPS in the same situations then. That propelled him to place 18th in the NL MVP vote that season.

So while TC would love to see that out of him again, if he can just get back to being at least average in RBI spots, the lineup would be forever grateful.

The bullpen needs Robles and Smoker

It’s been reported, reported, and reported again. Jeurys Familia will almost undoubtedly be suspended by league commissioner Rob Manfred for his domestic violence incident in October – although the charges have since been dropped. Based on past similar situations, around a 30-game suspension is expected.

Alderson has not signed any significant bullpen arms so far this offseason, so as it stands now, the 1.97 ERA 2016 season of Addison Reed figures to place him in the closer role until Familia’s eventual return. That makes Hansel Robles and Josh Smoker as important as anyone on this roster, as they would be receiving much bigger roles.

Robles was solid, but inconsistent with his command last season, allowing 36 walks and seven home runs in just 77.2 innings pitched. But his power fastball and breaking ball give him all the ability in the world to be a great major league righty reliever.

Smoker struggled heavily at times in 2016, but he did show more competitive fire than Mets fans have seen since Pedro Martinez. He has now become the de facto lefty specialist in the ‘pen with fellow southpaw Josh Edgin. But with Edgin’s seemingly glass body, Smoker will need to begin to reach his once first-round potential for the upcoming season in order to help shore up a likely shorthanded Mets bullpen.

O’ Captain, my captain?

David Wright, even when sidelined like he has often been recently, is vital to the Mets’ roster. ‘The Captain’ has been the face of the franchise since 2004, and he’s remained a clubhouse leader during that entire time.

Wright reportedly believes that, if his playing time is controlled correctly, he can play around 130 games in 2017. If he can even hit 100, his X-factor status would be officially fulfilled.

While many feel the Gold-Glove third baseman is washed up at this point in his career, his stats from his 75 combined games over the last two seasons suggest that he can still play when healthy. Over that time, Wright has produced 42 runs, 15 doubles, 12 home runs, 31 RBIs, and a .260/.365/.436 line during what amounts to nearly half-a-season’s worth of plate appearances.

The spinal stenosis that has plagued him does somewhat severely limit both his range and arm strength from the hot corner, but Wright can still hold his own there. Don’t rule out some possible time at first though.

Duda, where’s my first baseman?

Only one word can describe Lucas Duda, and Mets fans can probably say it in unison at this point – streaky.

While his seven homers and 23 RBIs in 172 plate appearances in an injury-shortened last season certainly impressed, a .229 average did just the opposite. His hopeful .285/.333/.545 line against lefties in 2015 had Mets fans thinking positive going into 2016, but that was brutally shot down with a .133 average, as his extreme lefty issues resurfaced.

An MLB.com’s Top 100 prospect in first baseman Dominic Smith makes Duda’s remaining time in Queens near done, but for now, the roster needs him to be anything but inconsistent in 2017, so as to lengthen the lineup power-wise.

A platoon with infielder Wilmer Flores is possible, and will surely be explored by TC should Duda struggle, but if he can gain any sort of semblance of consistency, then the lineup will be far, far deeper and more dangerous.

Travis, Travis: Where art thou d’Arnaud?

Travis d’Arnaud might be the most infuriatingly puzzling player the Mets have had on their roster since the infamous Jason Bay.

Fear not, the Blue Jays have already lost the R.A. Dickey trade, giving up now ace Noah Syndergaard for the aged knuckleballer. But at the time, d’Arnaud was the best catching prospect in baseball, and was therefore seen as the main return piece of the deal going back to New York.

But scratch Duda’s streakiness, as maybe d’Arnaud beats him out for that terrible title.

In 2015 though, the 6-foot-2 backstop destroyed pitching, hitting 14 doubles, 12 home runs, and 41 RBIs, with a .268 average and an .825 OPS in just 268 plate appearances – great numbers for anyone, but especially a catcher.

Last season, though, as fans will painfully remember, the old d’Arnaud made a triumphant return, with an underwhelming four homers and a .247 average in more plate appearances than his breakout performance.

Go figure.

Injuries have definitely played a part in the 27-year-old’s uneven development, so going into next season healthy bodes well for the potential of increased production that he could bless the Mets with in 2017 and beyond. Even average production out of the catcher position would be a huge improvement over the year before.

Welcome back Wheeler

Harvey, deGrom, and Steven Matz are all projected to be in good health for the beginning of Spring Training. Zack Wheeler, while apparently in the same situation, is now forever a question mark after having his 2016 return pushed back again and again, until that return would be no more. That means Wheeler has been absent from the Mets’ rotation for two full seasons in a row.

The once top prospect traded from the San Francisco Giants for Carlos Beltran was having a fine opening to his career in 2013 and ’14, posting a 3.50 ERA and 271 strikeouts in 285.1 innings tossed during that span.

So while he has proven to be more than capable of being a middle-of-the-rotation arm, two years out of the 162-game regular season grind is tough to come back from without any issues at all.

Discussions within the franchise have already begun about putting Wheeler in the bullpen to open the year, slowly working him back into his old starting gig in the process. TC would surely love to see that happen with Familia likely to be out for some time, while the Robert Gsellman/Seth Lugo duo could fill in for Wheeler during his transition.

But with uncertainty shrouding the Mets’ rotation after surgeries became a norm this offseason, a healthy Wheeler starting, in the ‘pen, or both would go a long way in helping the team in Queens have another successful season.