The New York Mets’ 2017 starting lineup is still not totally set, but why not take an early look at what numbers that lineup might put up?
In no way is the New York Mets starting lineup or bench set in stone, but with negotiations on trades appearing to be moving slowly, along with a number of guys looking like they’ll be healthy for the start of Spring Training, statistical projections are the obvious next step in that process.The Mets hit a whopping 218 home runs as a team last season, good for second in the National League. They have a lot of that power-potential returning in 2017, on top of what appears to be now a full season of slugger Jay Bruce.
So things are looking up in Queens as far as more consistent hitting and production goes.
Note: These projections are based on the player participating in a full or near-full season’s worth of games, at-bats, and plate appearances.
LF Yoenis Cespedes
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .292 average, .355 on-base percentage, 91 runs, 33 doubles, 37 home runs, 101 RBIs, six steals
Cespedes is the Mets lineup. They are, simply put, just a different team when he’s healthy, hitting, or even just…there.
In only 132 games last season, the Cuban slugger hit 31 home runs with a .280 average – all while bumping his walks number
up by 18 in 27 less games than in 2015, raising his on-base percentage nearly 30 points in the process.
So if ‘La Potencia’ stays in good shape for a full season, Cespedes could, and very likely will, build even more upon his improved 2016 stats.
RF Jay Bruce
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .251 average, .320 on-base percentage, 83 runs, 29 doubles, 32 home runs, 100 RBIs, three steals
Bruce is being shopped very openly on the trade market by Alderson, in effort for the Mets to open up a spot for Michael Conforto to play every day, while simultaneously clearing cap space.
But if the ex-Cincinnati Reds right fielder ends up retaining his spot in Queens for 2017, then the Mets will have quite a formidable three/four combo in the lineup.
Following his August trade to New York, Bruce struggled for that entire month, hitting just .183 with two home runs. But fast forward to the last month of the season and he produced a solid .263 average with six homers and 13 RBIs.
So if he can be anything like September/October Bruce and he’s batting behind Yo, expect his production to be good enough to make fans forget about last August.
CF Curtis Granderson
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .240 average, .338 on-base percentage, 89 runs, 27 doubles, 27 home runs, 68 RBIs, six steals
Granderson had a simultaneously good and rough 2016 season all in one. While 30 homers, 88 runs, and 74 walks are absolutely nothing to complain about, the Grandy-man did, however, set the record for the lowest RBI total in a 30 homer year on a .152 average with runners in scoring position.
Yeah, so that hurts.
But flash back to 2015, and the scrappy outfielder hit .297 with runners in scoring position, along with a .433 on-base percentage.
So a bounce back is not unlikely to happen, especially if Grandy is put in a spot in the order that’s more conducive to RBI production.
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .269 average, .327 on-base percentage, 70 runs, 28 doubles, 19 home runs, 62 RBIs, three steals
Cabrera has been a complete bargain for the Mets through one year of the two-year deal he signed before last season, as he’s getting paid just $8.25 million per year.
Even with a bum knee for most of the second half of 2016, the shortstop was fierce batting in mostly the two-hole for manager Terry Collins, hitting .280 with 23 home runs, 30 doubles, and a .336 on-base percentage. That ability to get on-base, in scoring position, and drive in runs makes him a great candidate to stay near the top of the order for 2017 as well.
If that is in fact where he winds up, expect very similar numbers to last season, especially with the possibility of now, not only Cespedes, but Bruce behind him as well.
2B Neil Walker
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .276 average, .342 on-base percentage, 75 runs, 26 doubles, 26 home runs, 84 RBIs, two steals
Walker has long been a solid switch-hitter, but he found his power stroke as a righty more than ever last season. In fact, he hit .330 with eight home runs in 2016 after posting just six such homers during his seven other seasons in the majors.
Hitting coach Kevin Long has been a big help for Walker in that area of his game, allowing him to tie his home run career high in 24 less games than he did it in 2014.
If Bruce remains in Queens, Walker will surely be the Mets’ five-hitter. That presumably will leave a lot of possible RBIs on the base-paths for him. If he can produce at a similar level in 2017 as he did limitedly last year, New York’s lineup will get even deeper.
1B Lucas Duda
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .243 average, .338 on-base percentage, 68 runs, 28 doubles, 27 home runs, 76 RBIs, one steal
Duda is one of the wild cards in this projection. He’s been about as streaky a player as is possible in the major leagues, but when on, he can produce as well as any other first baseman. His 27 and 30 home runs each of the last two seasons respectively prove that point.
But what has been a bigger issue for Duda has been his inability to hit lefties. He did, however, break that mold in 2015, hitting .285 with seven homers and 11 doubles that season against southpaws.
If he can’t recreate that magic next year after an injury-plagued 2016, expect Collins to have a quick trigger finger in starting a platoon with possibly righty infielder Wilmer Flores.
3B David Wright
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .265 average, .352 on-base percentage, 75 runs, 29 doubles, 22 home runs, 76 RBIs, seven steals
Wright hasn’t been the same since spinal stenosis has taken over his last two seasons – he played just a combined 75 games in ’15 and ’16. The good news is that during that time though, ‘Captain America’ had 15 doubles, 12 home runs, 31 RBIs, and a .260/.365/.436 line.
Like any professional player would and should, Wright truly believes that 130 games in 2017 is a doable feat. If 130 is indeed possible – whether that involves a Reyes/Flores platoon or not – he has shown enough potential that when he’s feeling great, his bat reflects a similar notion.
A major emotional force on the sideline and in the dugout for this Mets squad last year, if he can actually be in the lineup as well, good things will surely follow.
C Travis d’Arnaud
ESNY‘s 2017 Projected Stats – .249 average, .312 on-base percentage, 56 runs, 23 doubles, 15 home runs, 62 RBIs, no steals
d’Arnaud. Oh, Travis d’Arnaud. How could anyone know what they can get out of such an unpredictable catcher?
Looking back to 2015, the former #1 catching prospect produced 14 doubles, 12 homers, 41 RBIs, and a .268 average in a mere 67 games. Where that production went in 2016 is an absolute mystery though.
Health issues were and are no doubt a legitimate concern, but the now 27-year-old has a huge opportunity to return his statistics to their former glory in 2017.
But with just a .247 average and less than half the home runs and RBIs he had in eight more games last season than in ’15, d’Arnaud remains, by far, the biggest question mark for the upcoming 2017 positional roster.
INFs Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores, & OF Michael Conforto
All three of these guys are likely going to have large roles on the team all season, including platoon situations, if injuries occur, and if any more trades/moves are made before Opening Day 2017.
Flores quietly had a career year in 2016, posting a .267 average with 16 home runs and 49 RBIs in just half-a-season’s worth of at-bats. He can also play any infield spot, making him the most qualified to fill-in in the immediate should any injuries take place there.
That makes him a strong candidate to hit for similar or even better numbers next season, especially if Flores can seize a starting gig at any point.
Reyes was the spark the Mets needed to make the playoffs last season, filling in at third base for the last couple months of 2016.
He hit .267 with eight home runs, 24 RBIs, 13 doubles, four triples, and nine stolen bases during that time – showing staggeringly better power numbers than Mets’ brass
likely expected after his signing.
Fans are clamoring for more Reyes atop the 2017 lineup, and it’s hard to argue against that rationale. But now that he’ll reportedly see time in the outfield besides his normal work at third, short, and second, his versatility will allow him to hit more often than not, making a repeat season very likely.
Conforto, according to reports, will be getting some reps in at first base for Spring Training. That gives Collins a valuable lefty to possibly take over for Duda should he get injured or significantly struggle again, besides the value Conforto already possesses in the outfield.
Conforto had a rough 2016 season, but he raked when sent down to Triple-A to the tune of a .422 average and nine homers in 33 games.
If management can find a way to get him into the lineup consistently, then this man could become one of the better major league outfielders. In fact, a .275/25 home run/85 RBI season is not out of the question with the beautiful and advanced lefty swing of someone like Conforto.