Opening Day is over three months away, but it’s never too early to take a dive into the New York Mets roster projections for 2017.
The euphoria that surrounds Opening Day for baseball fans is a feeling unmatched by anything else this world has to offer. Well, maybe not anything, but close to it.The New York Mets are coming off their second season in a row with a postseason appearance – something that, including now, has only happened twice in franchise history. So, needless to say, expectations in the Big Apple are high for the 2017 version of this team.
It has been a relatively slow offseason for general manager Sandy Alderson so far, but the moves he has made have been crucial to keeping the Mets deep postseason aspirations afloat.
So with Opening Day still over three months away, let’s take a way too early look at what the Mets’ 25-man roster could look like on April 3rd, 2017.
The Starting Rotation
1. RHP Noah Syndergaard
2. RHP Jacob deGrom
3. RHP Matt Harvey
4. LHP Steven Matz
5. RHP Zack Wheeler
This is widely and obviously known as the strongest part of the Mets’ roster. From top to bottom, it may even be the best rotation is baseball, while none of the quintet are over the age of 28.Syndergaard blossomed last season, taking over the ‘ace of the staff’ role for most of the year. But the last couple months of 2016 were something special for the 24-year-old, when he twirled sub-2.90 ERAs during that time.
His sophomore season culminated in a home Wild Card Game start against postseason legend Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. Syndy seriously rose to the occasion though, tossing seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and only two hits and three walks allowed. If he hadn’t already, this start truly showed the rest of the league that the 6-foot-6 Thor is now one of the best arms in the game.
Although the rest of the rotation are all major league proven arms that were all also once top prospects, each is coming off a major injury from last season or before.
Wheeler’s absence goes the farthest back, having missed two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He was projected at the dawn of last season to be ready to return to Queens by early July, but that homecoming never came, and now, even with all his long known talent, his production remains a question mark.
Harvey has been struck by the injury bug more and more as his career has gone on, having started only 17 games last season after pitching 216 innings in the 2015 regular and postseasons combined – nearly 40 innings more than his previous MLB career high. But he is expected to make a full recovery for Opening Day after offseason thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.
deGrom went down in very early September last season with ulnar nerve damage in his throwing elbow after a very solid, but uncharacteristically inconsistent year in the rotation. The deGrominator had surgery recently and is also expected to be in playing shape come next April.
During his 22 starts last season – the second highest total of his six-year professional career – Matz showed flashes of real greatness, using his mid-to-upper 90s fastball and sharp curveball to get nearly a strikeout per inning. But injuries have been a major issue for him as well, cutting each of his last two seasons short. A bone spur that was irritating his elbow was removed in October and will hopefully make his 2017 season go a bit smoother.
Starters Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo were vital cogs last season that helped push the Mets to the postseason after all the above injuries struck literally one after another towards the end of 2016. Alderson has made it clear that should any of the above five get hurt, or if manager Terry Collins wants to skip a man or use a six-man rotation, then Gsellman and Lugo will be first in line as replacements.
The Starting Lineup
6. C Travis d’Arnaud
7. 1B Lucas Duda
8. 2B Neil Walker
9. SS Asdrubal Cabrera
10. 3B David Wright
11. LF Yoenis Cespedes
12. CF Curtis Granderson
13. RF Jay Bruce
While it’s extremely likely that either Bruce or Granderson will get traded before spring training begins, for now they’re still both part of a Mets squad that hit 218 home runs last season.All one-through-eight spots in this lineup have significant enough power to hit some homers, with Granderson, Bruce, and Cespedes having all hit over 30 last season. Infield partners Walker and Cabrera both hit 23 shots in 2016, and, if healthy, Duda, Wright and d’Arnaud are all possible 20 homer threats as well.
Starting with that last ambitious proclamation, the chances that all three of those guys stay healthy next season are slim to none.
Duda has two 27-plus home run seasons under his belt, but he is extraordinarily streaky and only played 47 games in 2016.
Wright has taken part in only 75 games the last two years combined. A platoon will likely be used to keep The Captain healthy in 2017, pairing him with infielders like Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes. But Wright did hit seven home runs in just 137 at-bats last season, showcasing some of the pop the 6-foot, 205 pound third baseman still possesses.
d’Arnaud had a .268/12 home run/41 RBI breakout campaign in only 67 games in 2015. But that success collapsed last season to just four homers in 75 games, while simultaneously showing a weaker throwing arm from behind the plate, as well as continued health issues. If that plague can somehow dissipate, Alderson could maybe finally see what his 27-year-old backstop can really do.
The middle infield power duo of Walker and Cabrera was a bright spot for the Mets when they were both healthy in 2016. The couple showed natural chemistry on plays up the middle, and that carried over into the lineup, as they batted near each other for a good chunk of the season.
If this trio of outfielders remains together, then this could be one of the quietly best outfields in franchise history. Each can hit for power, all have solid gloves, and Bruce and Cespedes especially have very strong arms from the corner spots. But if Grandy or Bruce are shipped away in the coming weeks, expect Michael Conforto to be the beneficiary of much more playing time.
The Bullpen
14. RHP Jeurys Familia
15. RHP Addison Reed
16. LHP Josh Smoker
17. RHP Hansel Robles
18. LHP Josh Edgin
19. RHP Seth Lugo
The big story all offseason here has been about whether Familia will be suspended to open next season after allegedly physically assaulting his wife, Bianca Rivas, at their home in Fort Lee, NJ. So although it appears that the charges will be dropped at the request of Rivas, he may still face a suspension from MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred.Aside from the domestic violence case, Familia led the majors with 51 saves last season, paired with a 2.55 ERA. Besides one hanging pitch on a game-winning home run to Giants third baseman Conor Gillaspie in the 2016 NL Wild Card game, Familia was brilliant for the second season in a row as the closer for the Mets.
His setup man, Addison Reed, was absolutely stellar as well, posting a 1.97 ERA with 91 strikeouts over 77.2 innings pitched himself. Those numbers easily slot him into the setup role for 2017, and should Familia be suspended, he’ll surely take over as closer.
The Joshes in Smoker and Edgin are the two lone lefties near the major leagues for the Mets. Jerry Blevins filled that role masterfully in 2016, but this duo is who Collins will have as of right now.
Edgin hasn’t pitched more than 30 innings in a season during his four-year career, and Smoker made his debut just last August. Neither is a lefty-specialist – something Mets’ management always likes to have – so expect them to go after outside options like Boone Logan or Sean Doolittle to help fill that need before Opening Day.
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The rest of the ‘pen in Robles and Lugo are two reliable arms who had great campaigns in 2016. Robles is a typical power pitcher and as his control gets better, so will his already decent numbers.
Lugo was chosen for the last spot over Gsellman due to his experience in the minor leagues splitting time between starting and relieving, while Gsellman hasn’t shown an ability to do that yet in his young professional career.
The Bench
20. INF/OF Jose Reyes
21. OF/1B Michael Conforto
22. INF T.J. Rivera
23. OF Juan Lagares
24. INF Wilmer Flores
25. C Rene Rivera
Reyes provided a much-needed spark atop the Mets lineup during the final two months of last season. But with the return of a healthier Wright and Walker, he’s a man without a spot. Mets’ brass have already publicly stated though that the speedy veteran will get some time in the outfield in spring training, after leaving shortstop for the first time in his career in 2016.As stated earlier, Conforto quite possibly will receive a full-time starting job before the offseason is over, as Bruce and Grandy are being shopped on the trade market. A down season in 2016 – featuring a blisteringly hot April, followed by a prolonged slump, a trip to the minors, and, finally, a re-calling up – is something that Alderson is hoping will incite Conforto to be the player he was during his rookie season.
A .267 average, 16 home run, and 49 RBI career season for Flores is something that many Mets fans seem to have forgotten about. Collins, however, hasn’t, and Flores will definitely be seeing his fair share of time in the lineup in 2017.
Lagares and the Rivera twins – Rene and T.J. – will all play similar roles in 2017, with that being a mostly fill-in, fielding specialist role.
Rene has a solid glove and arm from behind the plate, and Lagares is a former Gold Glover, so expect to see both late in games to limit errors in the field.
T.J. has played all four infield spots, as well as left field, so he’ll be a nice option for Collins to give his starters occasional days off, possibly limiting their injuries in the process.
Here's the problem. This is a team that finished 8 games out of first place and your early prediction has them making no improvements but to count on a return to health for a roster that is a year older and with serious injury in Walker and Wright. They need a closer (and 7th and 8th inning guys) for the first third of the season. They need improvement out of the C position too. Nothing has changed, there are still serious questions all over the field. The only place i'm willing to hold the line without adding a player is 1B with the hope that Dom Smith is ready by mid season.