Elite Sports NY’s 2016-17 NBA Preview & Predictions

Elite Sports NY brings you its official preview of the 2016-17 NBA season. Our staff predicted how the season will shake out.

The NBA season tips off with back-to-back games from the reigning champion Cleveland Cavaliers and the runner-up Golden State Warriors.

LeBron James and the Cavs begin their quest to repeat at home against the New York Knicks while Kevin Durant plays his first regular season game as a Warrior at home against the San Antonio Spurs.

The drama created from a wild summer will undoubtedly spill over into the regular season. It always does. We all want to see what the Warriors are capable of; the clash of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade in a Bulls uniform. That’s happening.

The 2016-17 season is around the corner which means it’s time to preview what’s on the way. We looked at how the regular season, playoffs, and awards races would shake out.

This is Elite Sports NY’s Official 2016-17 NBA Preview.

EASTERN CONFERENCE: ATLANTIC DIVISION

1. Boston Celtics — 52-30
2. Toronto Raptors — 49-33
3. New York Knicks — 37-45
4. Brooklyn Nets — 29-53
5. Philadelphia 76ers — 22-60

The Boston Celtics have been steadily improving under head coach Brad Stevens, but the addition of Al Horford in free agency makes them the second best team in the Eastern Conference. Horford is the star player the Celtics have coveted for many years.

The 30-year-old center is a great fit with his new team. Celtics roll men finished in the 10th percentile (per Synergy) of efficiency in 2015-16. He finished in the 78th percentile on 301 attempts, shooting 54.2%. Boston was 27th in mid-range field goal percentage on 20.3 attempts per game. Horford is a career 46.8% shooter on two-point attempts longer than 16 ft. from the rim (per Basketball-Reference.com) and 34.0% on threes. The Celtics were 10th in points scored per 100 possessions and adding Horford should put them into the top five.

The Toronto Raptors will take a step back from last year’s 56-win finish. Everything went right for them in 2015-16. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were both All-Stars for which DeRozan was rewarded with a max deal, and Lowry will be this summer.

The Raptors lost their top shot blocker and second-leading rebounder in Bismack Biyombo to free agency after the journeyman had a career year at just the right time. Biyombo led an excellent defense that was fourth in opponent’s points in the paint and seventh in opponent’s field goal percentage in the restricted area.

He was essentially replaced by Jared Sullinger, who will need foot surgery to start the season. Sullinger’s known more for his offense anyway.

Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings are a huge upgrade at the point guard position for the New York Knicks, but there is still reason for concern.

Both players are notorious for their poor defense, and Jennings’ inefficient play has been well-documented. Jennings has recorded a positive defensive box plus-minus only twice in his career and Rose just once.

The Knicks spent $125 million on Jennings, Joakim Noah, and Courtney Lee in an attempt to not only make the playoffs for the first time since the 2012-13 season but make a serious run once they get there.

There are too many uncertainties with this team. Unless everything breaks their way, the Knicks won’t be a playoff team. What if Rose goes down yet again? What if Noah is done as an effective player? What if the bench is a problem? There are too many what ifs.

Their New York City counterparts, the Brooklyn Nets, are going to improve. Their new front office was extremely active in free agency and adding Jeremy Lin was a big improvement to complement Brook Lopez in the pick and roll.

A new offense that will rely heavily on the three-point shot and the inevitable improvement of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson should boost excitement around a previously dormant franchise.

Trusting the process may finally pay off for the Philadelphia 76ers. They finally have the No. 1 pick in Ben Simmons, and Joel Embiid is finally healthy. Simmons is out indefinitely after breaking his foot, but Embiid has looked incredible during the preseason.

The Sixers are going to be bad. Again. But they’re going to be interesting.

EASTERN CONFERENCE: CENTRAL DIVISION

1. Cleveland Cavaliers — 54-28
2. Detroit Pistons — 45-37
3. Milwaukee Bucks — 41-41
4. Indiana Pacers — 38-44
5. Chicago Bulls — 37-45

The Cavs are easily the Eastern Conference’s best team. They will cruise to a third straight division crown and NBA Finals. The defending champs bring back the same team that took down the legendary Golden State Warriors in last year’s finals. Most importantly, they have LeBron James. That means they’ll always have a chance.

The other teams in the central division will beat up on each other throughout the season.

Reggie Jackson (knee, thumb) missing extended time to start the season is a hit for the Pistons. They won’t improve as much as they’d hoped but Stan Van Gundy’s team will finish fourth in the conference.

The Milwaukee Bucks will bounce back from a disappointing 2015-16 campaign with a playoff berth. A breakout season from Jabari Parker and the addition of sharpshooters Mirza Teletovic and Matthew Delavadova will contribute multiple wins. The Bucks were last in the league in 3-pointers made per game. With Teletovic and Delly now in the fold that won’t be the case.

The Pacers and Bulls don’t make sense. Indiana doesn’t have the personnel for the up-tempo offense they hope to run, and Chicago turned themselves into the antithesis of a competitive NBA team when they added lane cloggers, Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade.

EASTERN CONFERENCE: SOUTHEAST DIVISION

1. Washington Wizards — 42-40
2. Charlotte Hornets — 40-42
3. Miami Heat — 39-43
4. Atlanta Hawks — 36-46
5. Orlando Magic — 34-48

The southeast division will have three playoff teams: Washington, Charlotte, and Miami. Washington finally has a new head coach in the proven winner Scotty Brooks. After missing out on the playoffs completely in 2015-16, the Wizards need to be there this season.

Washington finally has a new head coach in the proven winner Scotty Brooks. After missing out on the playoffs completely in 2015-16, the Wizards need to be there this season. But they spent all their money this summer on bigs and didn’t add any wing help.

The Hornets and Heat will take a step back. Losing Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson will hurt Charlotte more than they realize and Miami is in rebuilding mode.

The Dwight Howard experiment in Atlanta will be a disaster. Don’t be surprised if he’s traded next summer.

As for Orlando well, the Biyombo signing was kind of weird. Like Washington, they spent all their money this season on big men. A trade involving Nikola Vucevic seemed logical, but it never came.

WESTERN CONFERENCE: SOUTHWEST DIVISION

1. San Antonio Spurs — 57-25
2. Houston Rockets — 46-36
3. Dallas Mavericks — 39-43
4. Memphis Grizzlies — 37-45
5. New Orleans Pelicans — 36-46

Tim Duncan retired, but the Spurs will keep on rolling. They didn’t get better or worse. San Antonio remains clearly the second-best team in the West.

Houston made a drastic change to their culture when they hired Mike D’Antoni. Dwight Howard bailed (mercifully), and James Harden has moved to point guard. The Rockets will lead the league in scoring, and they’ll be better on defense than expected. This year they’ll be in the playoffs.

It’s difficult to pick against a Rick Carlisle-Dirk Nowitzki team. Since the legendary head coach took over the Mavs, they’ve missed the playoffs just once in eight seasons. But Nowitzki is 38-years-old and entering his 19th season with a weak supporting cast around him. This will be the season when that finally matters.

Memphis gambled on an injury-prone Chandler Parsons with a max contract this summer. They hired a new head coach, re-signed Mike Conley, also to a max deal, and moved Zach Randolph to a sixth man role.

Parsons has already been ruled out for the opener. It’s not surprising considering he’s played 70 games only twice in five seasons. Not a good sign at 28-years-old.

Memphis will struggle while they adapt to the changes in their identity as a team.

The Pelicans have been a sleeper pick for some people to make the playoffs. I don’t see it. Anthony Davis has already hurt his ankle (although he expects to be ready for the opening game) and Tyreke Evans is out until December.

WESTERN CONFERENCE: PACIFIC DIVISION

1. Golden State Warriors — 67-15
2. Los Angeles Clippers — 48-34
3. Sacramento Kings — 38-44
4. Phoenix Suns — 30-52
5. Los Angeles Lakers — 22-60

There’s really not much left to say about the Warriors. They’re the favorites to win it all. They were already great then they added the game’s best scorer and made things unfair.

Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are free agents next summer. It’s likely that one of them won’t be back with the Clippers. One of them could even be traded during the season. The Clippers are returning with the same team that was ravaged by injuries and bounced in the first round last season.

The Kings are going to take some time to become winners. New head coach Dave Joerger will develop them into a legitimate playoff team. The Suns and Lakers are very young and in the early stages of a long rebuilding path.

WESTERN CONFERENCE: NORTHWEST DIVISION

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 49-33
2. Utah Jazz — 48-34
3. Portland Trail Blazers — 46-36
4. Minnesota Timberwolves — 45-37
5. Denver Nuggets — 40-42

Don’t laugh. Russell Westbrook is going to have an amazing season and the Thunder are going to be good. Really good. Westbrook still has plenty of talent surrounding him even with the loss of Durant.

Despite the injury to Gordon Hayward, the Jazz will have the breakout season the league has been counting on. The addition of George Hill gives them the starting point guard they needed and Joe Johnson provides scoring to a bench that finished 25th in the league in that category in 2015-16.

Tom Thibodeau’s hiring in Minnesota has made them a playoff team in the West. In five seasons with the Bulls, he didn’t miss the playoffs once. The Twolves are loaded with young talent that Thibs will get the most out of every night.

Denver will compete for the eight seed and might even surprise and sneak into the playoffs. They have talented players like Nikola Jokic and Danilo Gallinari, but their backcourt isn’t good enough to make them a serious threat.

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS

FIRST ROUND

• (1) Cleveland Cavaliers over (8) Miami Heat in 4 games
• (2) Boston Celtics over (7) Charlotte Hornets in 5 games
• (3) Toronto Raptors over (6) Milwaukee Bucks in 6 games
• (4) Detroit Pistons over (5) Washington Wizards in 6 games

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

• (1) Cleveland Cavaliers over (4) Detroit Pistons in 5 games
• (2) Boston Celtics over (3) Toronto Raptors in 7 games

CONFERENCE FINALS

• (1) Cleveland Cavaliers over (2) Boston Celtics in 6 games

There won’t be any surprises in the East. The Cavs are going to the finals. They will get dinged up a little along the way by Boston, and this year Detroit will steal a game from them.

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS

FIRST ROUND

• (1) Golden State Warriors over (8) Minnesota Timberwolves in 5 games
• (2) San Antonio Spurs over (7) Portland Trail Blazers in 7 games
• (3) Oklahoma City Thunder over (6) Houston Rockets in 7 games
• (5) Utah Jazz over (4) Los Angeles Clippers in 6 games

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

• (1) Golden State Warriors over (5) Utah Jazz in 6 games
• (2) San Antonio Spurs over (3) Oklahoma City Thunder in 6 games

CONFERENCE FINALS

• (1) Golden State Warriors over (2) San Antonio Spurs in 5 games

The Warriors will play the Cavs in the finals. Duh.

THE FINALS

• (1) Golden State Warriors over (1) Cleveland Cavaliers in 6 games
• Finals MVP: Klay Thompson

The Warriors built a team that appears to be unbeatable. Barring catastrophic injury, they should win the championship.

Of all their incredible offensive weapons why Klay Thompson for MVP? Well he’s money in the clutch and he’s made it clear that he doesn’t plan on giving up shots just because Kevin Durant is in town.

AWARDS

• MVP — Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
• Rookie of the Year — Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
• Defensive Player of the Year — Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
• Sixth Man of the Year — Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns
• Coach of the Year — Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics
• Most Improved Player — Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons

Westbrook is going to set all kinds of records in his first lone wolf season with Oklahoma City. He has the offense all to himself now. Maybe this is what he wanted all along.

Embiid has been waiting over two years for his rookie season. It’s finally here and if the preseason is any indication of what’s to come than “The Process” will be a force to be recokned with.

You can argue that Green should’ve won the DPOY award last season, but Kawhi Leonard was just as deserving. No one defends more shots or as many positions as Green. It’s really a crap shoot between him and Leonard.

Brandon Knight is better suited to come off the bench. He can be instant offense behind Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker.

Coach of the Year is usually given out to a team that has a large win increase from the season prior. Brad Stevens will get the honor in 2016-17 when his Celtics win 50-plus games.

KCP is in a contract year and looking for a big extension. He’s 23-years-old and is yet to have a breakout season. He’s been too inconsistent with his promising jump shot and defense. 2016-17 will be one where he puts it all together.

 

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