Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, but the New York Mets really have a shot at making the playoffs. Who should Terry Collins carry as they attempt a second straight World Series run?
One month ago, New York Mets fans would be hysterically laughing at a projection for a playoff roster. On August 18, the Mets had a 60-60 record and were six games back of the Giants.
On that same date, FanGraphs gave the Mets a 9.3% chance to make the postseason. A little over a month later and those odds stand at 64.9%.
After a 20-10 run, the Mets are currently in a three-way tie with those Giants, and the Cardinals for the two Wild Card spots.
One would assume that a playoff roster must be easy to decide, as good teams must have good players. But, without deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler, Wright, Walker, and potentially Wilmer Flores and Steven Matz, Terry Collins’ job is very tough.
Collins has to decide which guys from the B and C team will make it onto his roster for the Wild Card game, and then a potentially longer run.
Once again, assuming the Mets don’t pull a 2008-esque collapse, every single guy on the 40-man will be playing to fill the plentiful open spots on this roster.
Catchers
In
Out
Travis d’Arnaud’s power has disappeared this season, resulting in a mere .624 OPS. Even with his struggles, d’Arnaud has, at the very least, earned a chance to split time with Rivera in the playoffs.
d’Arnaud’s diminished bat still provides more than Kevin Plawecki, who has a .546 OPS in 127 MLB at-bats. Plawecki’s defense isn’t good enough to outweigh his poor bat, thus his omission from the roster.
Rene Rivera has secured his spot on the roster as the personal catcher for Noah Syndergaard. Rivera’s defense is superior to d’Arnaud and Plawecki, thus he has become the antidote to teams running all over Syndergaard.
Rivera has also taken on a similar role with young pitchers like Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, who may wind up being vital to a postseason run.
Starting Pitchers
In
Noah Syndergaard, Bartolo Colon, Steven Matz, Seth Lugo
Out
Robert Gsellman, Gabriel Ynoa, Rafael Montero
Noah Syndergaard has established himself as the clear-cut ace of this depleted pitching staff. Maybe if deGrom or Harvey were healthy you wouldn’t see Thor in the Wild Card game.
Obviously, that is not the case, so expect to see Syndergaard on the mound if and when the Mets are playing for a spot in the NLDS.
After Syndergaard, Bartolo Colon has proven himself to be this staff’s number two. At age 43, Colon has logged 184.1 innings, a feat within itself, but has also pitched to an outstanding 3.12 ERA.
Colon’s finesse style of pitching has provided the Mets with a different style in a rotation that was once stacked with flamethrowers.
The Mets number three will hopefully be Steven Matz. Matz threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Saturday and is looking to return tomorrow. Should everything go to plan, Matz will be more than ready to pitch in his second straight postseason.
Last year in the postseason he pitched 14.2 innings over three starts, recording a 3.68 ERA. Matz’s experience from last year’s run should prove beneficial to the young pitcher, as many 24 year-olds don’t have any.
Should Matz not recover from his injury, Robert Gsellman would most likely take his place. Gsellman has pitched to a 3.08 ERA in five appearances (four starts) for the Mets. His lack of experience could be an issue but, then again, Matz only had six starts going into October last year.
Seth Lugo has definitely earned a spot in the postseason rotation. The right-hander has pitched far and beyond what anyone expected from him, pitching to a 2.35 ERA over 53.2 innings.
Lugo’s success hasn’t just come against the bottom dwellers of the league. In three starts against the Giants, Nationals, and Cardinals, Lugo gave up only four runs in 18.2 innings, good enough for a 1.98 ERA.
Ynoa and Montero were not considered for the third or fourth spots because they have not pitched well at a consistent rate.
The Bullpen
Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, Jerry Blevins, Fernando Salas, Josh Smoker, Hansel Robles, Erik Goeddel, Robert Gsellman
Do I really need to explain why Familia, Reed, and Blevins will be on the roster?
For the entire season, Reed and Familia have been arguably the most dominant one-two punch in the National League.
Blevins has not only been a great lefty specialist but a tremendous all-around reliever. In 40.1 innings (69 appearances), Blevins has struck out 52 batters and has a 2.90 ERA (1.80 against lefties) and a 1.24 WHIP.
Smoker got a spot in this bullpen so that the Mets don’t have to use Blevins too early and have an all right-handed pen. Smoker has pitched extremely well of late, not giving up a run in his last nine appearances (5.1 innings).
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The next spot goes to the newest Met, Fernando Salas. Salas was shaky while with the Angels but has pitched to 2.61 ERA in ten games since coming over to Flushing. Salas also has some playoff experience, recording a 3.54 ERA over 20.1 innings.
Hansel Robles and Erik Goeddel round out Terry Collins’ October ‘pen. Both guys can fall into awful cold streaks but, when they are on, they can be dominant relievers.
For the Wild Card game, Terry can make a couple of his starters inactive and add an extra reliever. The Mets can update their roster in between that game and the division series, so it makes no sense to carry guys they won’t need unless they move on.
If Terry wants another lefty specialist he could potentially look for Josh Edgin or Sean Gilmartin. If he goes with an extra righty, Jim Henderson and Logan Verrett are his best options.
Infielders
In
Lucas Duda, T.J. Rivera, Kelly Johnson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Matt Reynolds
Out
To the surprise of pretty much every Met fan, Lucas Duda has made it back on the field. These last couple weeks of the regular season should serve as almost a rehab assignment for Duda, as the minor league season is over.
If Duda can get it together, expect to see him as the starting first baseman in October. James Loney most likely will be left home, in this case, since the Mets really don’t need another left-handed bat. Furthermore, he is limited to only one position defensively.
At shortstop and third base, the Mets starters are pretty clear. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes have had outstanding seasons for the Mets, and will look to continue their campaigns into October.
At second, the Mets will most likely use a platoon of T.J. Rivera and Kelly Johnson. Johnson has been excellent all year for the Mets, hitting .267 with nine home runs and 23 RBIs since coming over from Atlanta.
T.J. Rivera has been amazing for the Mets as well. Since his call up, Rivera is hitting .338 with three home runs, 10 RBIs, and a .848 OPS. If Rivera can continue to translate his PCL success to the majors, he could be looking at a lot more playing time in October, and even the second base job next season.
Right now it looks like Rivera would play against the lefties and Johnson against the righties, but how they play the rest of the year could definitely change that.
It also depends on whether Wilmer Flores comes back from his injury. Should he return, Wilmer will most likely take at-bats from the second base mix and bump Reynolds from the roster.
In the Wild Card game, the Mets may choose to carry an extra infielder, anyway, as they don’t need to carry all of their starters.
Outfielders
In
Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Juan Lagares, Michael Conforto
Out
Brandon Nimmo, Alejandro De Aza
The starters in the outfield are pretty easy to figure out: Cespedes, Granderson, and Bruce. But the bench, however, may be the hardest part of this roster to figure out.
Assuming he is back to full health, Lagares should be on the roster. At the very least he can provide a pinch runner and defensive replacement late in games.
Lagares is also the only other right-handed outfielder the Mets have — unless you count Ty Kelly.
The fifth spot in the Mets outfield was very hard to decide. Both Alejandro De Aza and Michael Conforto have struggled this season, so one is not a clear-cut better choice than the other.
Ultimately, Conforto was chosen. Over his past three games, Conforto is 3-9 at the plate, showing the signs that his bat could finally be coming around.
If he can keep putting in solid performances throughout September, Scooter will undoubtedly find himself on this roster.
The other factor in the decision was while De Aza may be a more versatile fielder, Conforto’s ceiling at the plate is not even close to De Aza. If the Mets are going to carry one of them, they should choose the bigger threat.
In the Wild Card game, Terry could carry De Aza or, say, Brandon Nimmo to be used situationally at the plate or on the bases. Not having to activate other starting pitchers gives managers more options off the bench, eventually benefiting them when making strategical decisions.