The distinction between MLB contenders and pretenders is beginning to surface, effectively creating buzz as the stretch run commences.
It is that time of year again.
The time when elimination numbers — magic numbers for current playoff teams — pop up on your ‘MLB.com At Bat’ app. A period of six weeks in which the men will separate themselves from the boys. Furthermore, the two to three week interval where all 30 clubs can look ahead and decide for themselves what 2016 can potentially amount to.
Yes, it is an exciting time in sports given that the NFL season is around the corner as well. Sure, there is hype surrounding the puck dropping in the NHL and opening tipoff in the NBA.
With that said, this is when the true baseball fans experience their greatest thrill. Division races, packed wild card chases, and, ultimately, a race for October — a pennant race.
Teams have already started to shape themselves into what they can and will become.
So, without further adieu, let’s take a look at current projections along with realistic shakeups that the vast majority of baseball lovers should anticipate.
Next: If The Season Ended Today
If The Season Ended Today
*Records based on 162-game projections*
American League
Division Champions
- Cleveland Indians (95-67)
- Texas Rangers (95-67)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox (91-71)
Wild Card Game: Baltimore Orioles (89-73) @ Boston / Toronto (91-71)
A lot is subject to change in the American League. The AL East currently has three teams within three games of first place, the Seattle Mariners are not completely written off in the West at 5.5 games back, and the wild card race features five teams breathing down Baltimore’s neck — the Orioles currently hold the final playoff spot.
National League
Division Champions
- Chicago Cubs (103-59)
- Washington Nationals (95-67)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72)
Wild Card Game: St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) @ San Francisco Giants (89-73)
The National League, on the other hand, is much more solidified and sturdy. In other words, there is a high chance someone with little knowledge of baseball can write down the aforementioned teams, and all of them will be in the same position when the season ends.
The Nationals maintain an eight-game lead in the East and the Cubs have all but put away the Central with a 12-game cushion. Additionally, all signs are pointing to the NL West runner-up claiming the first wild card.
That, of course, leads to the undecided races. The Dodgers and Giants are within a game of each other in their battle for the West, and the second and final Wild Card spot, just like the American League, is wide open. The Marlins, Pirates, and Mets all have fighting chances with the Cardinals gaining the upper-hand at this point.
Next: Frontrunners
Frontrunners
Who knows what the postseason will have in store for the Chicago Cubs, who have not lifted a National League pennant since 1945. However, one thing is for certain: they will win the NL Central and be the top ranked team heading in, earning them a matchup with the winner of the one-game playoff.
Despite the detrimental loss of Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals will not have waste an ounce of sweat on the NL East. They are simply too formidable and the Marlins and Mets just do not match up whatsoever. If all goes as expected, Dusty Baker’s squad will cruise its way to a mid-September clinch.
Currently riding high with a seven-game lead in the AL Central, Cleveland is one of the greater stories in baseball this year. The Kansas City Royals have massively disappointed and the Tigers have exceeded initial below average expectations, paving the way for a breakout candidate. As of right now, there is no reason to believe that the Tribe does not have the pieces to put the icing on the cake, finish what they started, and roll into the shaky AL playoffs.
Next: Sleepers
Sleepers
When the Yankees declared themselves sellers at the August 1 trade deadline, shipping off key assets for major value in the farm, few expected Joe Girardi’s team to flirt with relevancy. Sure enough, they stand within striking distance in the wild card race and, more importantly, at a respectable deficit in the AL East. Given that 30 or their final 38 games come against divisional opponents, destiny is in their hands. Do not be surprised if the newly found youthful winning mystique carries over, leading the Bronx Bombers to a playoff berth in a wide open American League.
Sure, the Mets have struggled mightily all year and particularly of late, largely underachieving with regards to prior expectations. At the moment, the 2015 National League champions would miss the playoffs thanks to a bundle of injuries and a surprisingly underwhelming pitching staff. With that said, an extremely soft September schedule can provide the difference as the Metropolitans attempt to erase a 4.5 game wild card deficit. The slate will feature meetings with the likes of the Reds, Braves, Twins, and Phillies, comprising of 19 of their final 29 games. If they come up short, they will have no one to blame but themselves.
Do not write off the two-time defending AL Champions and, most notably, defending World Series champs. KC, a huge failure given the high expectations that come with a ring, has greatly picked up the pace of late, winners of eight in a row and nine of 10. The torrent stretch flipped the page from four games under to four games over .500. Everything is finally starting to click at the most ideal of times. With the AL Central being a pipe dream, the wild card is the most probable avenue in order to pursue the promise land once again. Four games currently separate the Royals and targeted O’s, a deficit that can be surmounted within days if Kansas City’s recent stretch persists.
Next: This Time Next Week
This Time Next Week
Bold Predictions
- The Baltimore Orioles will no longer hold a playoff spot.
- The San Francisco Giants will overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers for sole possession of first place in the NL West.
- The New York Mets move within a game of the second NL Wild Card.
Magic Numbers
- Blue Jays / Red Sox (37)
- Indians (32)
- Rangers (33)
- Nationals (31)
- Cubs (27)
- Dodgers (38)
Emmanuel Berbari covers the New York Yankees & Major League Baseball for ESNY. Interact with him and view his daily work by “liking” his facebook page. He invites you to email any questions, comments, or concerns as well.