MLB Opening Day is just days away, and we take our stab at 10 bold predictions for the 2016 season.
By William Chase
Well the Washington Nationals, last year’s preseason darlings, didn’t win the World Series; they didn’t even make the playoffs at all.
The Houston Astros making the playoffs last season?
Jake Arrieta turning into an ace before our very eyes?
It’s always fun making educated guesses based on the past—both what we know and what we think we know—and chalking up all the information and mock-drafts, crunching the numbers. We have the same luck throwing a dart at the tiny red dot on the wall with a blindfold on.
But it doesn’t keep us from trying.
At the risk of bringing the curse onto the next squad and their fanbase, much to the chagrin and sheer delight of fans all over MLB, it’s now time to throw caution to the wind and announce the Top 10 Bold Predictions for 2016.
10. The Arizona Diamondbacks will make the playoffs
The surprise of the offseason might have come in the form of a 6’2”, 195 lbs. ace-like starting pitcher signing a new contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Then Arizona pulled off the trade that sent the prized Dansby Swanson and prospects to the Atlanta Braves for starter Shelby Miller. Arizona is young and talented, a factor that is similar to the Chicago Cubs of a year ago.
While spring training numbers don’t mean anything, the 23-8 D-backs have begun to show their potential. With an ace in Greinke leading the young, talented rotation, and slugger Paul Goldschmidt anchoring the lineup, the D-Backs are poised for a breakout 2016. Said Greinke in a recent USA Today article:
“I haven’t seen a mistake in the field yet all the times I’ve watched, and it seems we score at least five runs a game and the pitching staff’s better than it was last year.”
9. The St. Louis Cardinals will extend their October streak
The class of the National League has been the St. Louis Cardinals with their stellar play on the field, and management up in the box. The Chicago Cubs have dominated talks of World Series pipe-dreams, and much of the chatter over being the next great team entering baseball now, and going forward.
Again. With good reason. But as many times as people have tried writing off the Cardinals, I just can’t. They always find a way. Always.
Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty are two young, talented outfielders who will feature prominent roles during the 2016 season. “Grichuk is an above-average defender and a very toolsy player,” said GM Cardinals John Mozeliak, according to ESPN.com’s Mark Saxon. Piscotty showed his pop in the postseason last year. In four NLDS games he was 6-16 with three home runs, six RBI.
Until the Cards are finally dethroned, it’s a safe bet to count on death, taxes and the St. Louis Cardinals playing October baseball.
8. It is an even year, but no World Series by the Bay in 2016
The San Francisco Giants sequence of win the World Series, followed by missing the playoffs, winning the World Series and repeat is about as improbable as it gets. But that run ends this season. Not because winning the World Series every other year for four years seems unlikely, but the roster faces question marks.
Will Jeff Samardzija be able to fill a top-of-the-rotation spot in the rotation behind Madison Bumgarner? Though I like the fit with the Giants, and in going to a pitchers park such as AT&T Park, Samardzija is a wildcard. He flashes brilliance, and then battles through inconsistencies.
Of course to be fair, he’s never had the best teams around him, as he was shipped out of Chicago prior to Cubs finally arriving onto the scene, and the White Sox were towards the bottom in baseball when it came to runs scored in 2015. This will be the year we finally see what Samardzija is all about.
Is Johnny Cueto going to pitch more like he did with the Reds (92-63, 3.21 ERA), or the Royals/spring training Cueto? Will injuries subside? If so, the Giants are in the thick of the race, but will fall just short of the ultimate October prize this even year.
7. The Baltimore Orioles will be among the league’s worst teams
The AL East might be the most even of divisions across the board, but don’t expect Buck Showalter‘s Orioles to be fighting near the top. Going into an offseason that saw the Birds needing to upgrade their pitching, they managed to strike a deal with Yovani Gallardo. Say good bye to Wei-Yin Chen who bolted for the Miami Marlins.
Then they outbid themselves to retain first baseman Chris Davis; a contract with disastrous long-term consequences. For a guy who hits for power, and not much else, the Orioles are simply not good enough to compete in 2016. Their ERA was 4.05 last season and for an offseason that focused more on offense, they are going to have to hope that offense scores in bunches to help out the precarious rotation. Then there’s the whole Dexter Fowler flop; suffice it to say, it’s been less than an ideal offseason for the Orioles.
6. Justin Verlander will win at least 15 games
Justin Verlander battled through a triceps injury the first two months of last season, and was just finding his groove a little too late to save the Tigers season (5-5, 2.27 ERA over his final 14 starts). With regards to last year, said Verlander via Katie Stang of ESPN.com,
“I don’t want to say it was night and day from last year—we talked about it last year in spring training and I felt pretty good—but obviously I ran into an injury in the spring. But, right now it feels the best I can remember in a long time.”
Verlander had a strong spring and most importantly, a healthy Verlander points to the ace pitching like an ace again. The Detroit Tigers will be a force if he’s back to being the Verlander of old. With free agent addition Jordan Zimmermann joining the rotation, Verlander and company could be set to contend.
5. Jon Lester hits first Major League home run
Jon Lester knocked one off the bucket list last season; he recorded his first MLB hit against now-teammate and close friend John Lackey. Now he will hit his first MLB home run, a feat he maybe got the hang of in spring training agains the Colorado Rockies last Wednesday. Even skipper Joe Maddon expects big hits out of the career .041 hitter, per ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers.
Said Maddon:
“I was saying all last year that he has a great swing, and I’m going to stand by it. [The home run] didn’t surprise me. He’s going to get more hits this year. He can swing the bat.”
Well, of course he’s paid to pitch, and to be fair, 2015 was his first season in the National League, where he recorded 62 at-bats. He had 36 the nine previous seasons combined in the AL. Ironically, he recorded his one and only RBI in 2010 with the Boston Red Sox.
With the line-up the Cubs boast, and the wind flying out of Wrigley one of these days, why couldn’t it happen? After all, while Lester fell into the Major League record for most hit-less at-bats (66) to start a career, he recorded three in the final month of the season, including three of the four against the rival Cardinals.
4. Robin Ventura is the first manager fired
Honestly, Robin Ventura is probably being granted a solid if and when this comes to fruition. You’d have to think it’s going to happen eventually right? And Ventura is a solid guy. Always a hard-nosed gamer in his day—you’d have to be to charge Nolan Ryan, wouldn’t you?
The White Sox were thought to be potential contenders last season, but spotty play cost them early. Who knows if there’s dissension in the clubhouse falling the Adam LaRoche saga; maybe the band of brothers will unite, a rally of the troops? Sure. Anyway, though owner Jerry Reinsdorf stands by his hires, it seems unlikely he’s going to let losing fester on too much longer with the same results year in and year out.
While the Sox boast potential AL Cy Young candidate Chris Sale, and an offense that boasts the power that is Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier and interesting pickups in the form of center fielder Austin Jackson, this is a reason to believe the Sox might be on the verge of breaking out from the hole of mediocrity, but it’s all of nothing for Ventura in 2016.
3. The Washington Nationals will miss the playoffs
Last year’s darlings became the biggest duds. Fresh off missing the playoffs, amid the Jonathan Papelbon vs. Bryce Harper drama, and the ouster of manager Matt Williams, the Nats think they have the solution to their problems with the hiring of Dusty Baker. According to Bill Ladson, MLB.com, Nationals owners Ted Lerner had this to say at the time of the hiring last November:
“During our broad search process we met with many qualified candidates, and ultimately it was clear Dusty’s deep experience was the best fit for our ballclub.”
Baker does indeed have experience with over 20 years having managed the San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, not to mention 19 years as a player. The Nats can’t say they lack experience. But what else are they going to say, after they reportedly had a deal in place with Bud Black to take over as manager, before negotiations broke down due to terms of the agreement.
Then there was the calendar fiasco that saw Fenway Park appear on the cover of the Nationals’ calendars. Well, that one isn’t technically on the Nationals. But it just seems to follow the offseason script of the Nats. From a player personnel standpoint, Bryce Harper will be among those in the MVP discussion and assuming injuries aren’t what they were, the Nats will contend. But will fall just short.
Just makes you wonder what would have happened if Stephen Strasburg could have pitched in the 2012 playoffs.
2. The New York Yankees win 90 games
The New York Yankees have been transitioning the last few seasons, and this will be the year they show their promise and begin to fulfill their potential. With newly-acquired second baseman Starlin Castro teaming up with shortstop Didi Gregorius on the infield, the Yankees have an improved bat over Stephen Drew. The rotation, filled with question marks from injury to inconsistencies, will be anchored by ace Masahiro Tanaka and even CC Sabathia will fill in admirably from the fifth spot, winning 10 games.
Last year’s mid-season sensation, Luis Severino, will build on top of what he displayed, officially taking over as the No. 2 starter in the rotation. Nathan Eovaldi was a huge surprise last season, officially transforming into a top of the rotation pitcher for the Yankees.
The bullpen is among the deepest in all of baseball, with Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. Prospects Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez coming up later in the year could be enough to propel them, but overall this club is going to show they are heading in the right direction.
1. Chicago Cubs will win the World Series
Well here we go. The expectations are there. The team is stacked and loaded with talent on the field and prospects still in the pipelines. Every year Manager of the Year candidate Joe Maddon is the perfect manager to guide this loose bunch, and Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo anchoring the lineup are potential MVP’s.
Jason Heyward perfectly compliments the line-up, the big offseason pickup not even having to be the guy for the Cubs. Ben Zobrist, fresh off winning a World Series a season ago with the Kansas City Royals, is reunited with Maddon from their Tampa Bay Rays days, and will be the perfect player for Maddon on the field, in a variety of positions and in the line-up.
Breakout ace Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and John Lackey help form one of the better rotations in the majors, and the veteran leadership, mixed with the young, breakout talent will be what gets this team to the promised land.