The South Region of the 2016 NCAA Tournament promises to provide drama, quality basketball and jaw-dropping moments.
By Justin Weiss
This bodes well for Cinderella teams and contenders alike; Kansas, Maryland, California, Miami and Villanova all have plausible cases to cut down the nets in Louisville, while Wichita State (7-3 in their past three tourneys) seeks to take advantage of some lackluster competition.
At the pinnacle of this conference is the Jayhawks, who boast the region’s best coach (Bill Self) and most talented starting 5.
Will the Shockers shock again? Will the Jayhawks win it all? Will the Wildcats dissapoint again?
Those answers — and more — should be answered in the following predictions:
Kansas Jayhawks (1) vs. Austin Peay Governors (16)
The Jayhawks have won 12 consecutive conference titles, and are among the most efficient teams at both ends of the court. The Governors had a ho-hum regular season, but finished on a hot streak, having won six in a row. They’ll need to step up if they wish to reprise their Cinderella story on the biggest stage — especially after double-digit losses to both Vanderbilt and Indiana during the regular season.
OUR PICK: Kansas
RPI: Kansas
538: Kansas
Colorado Buffaloes (8) vs. UConn Huskies (9)
The media is so split on this matchup because both teams can drain. The Buffaloes are deadly from beyond the arc and are a handful on the glass, while the Huskies were one of the nation’s most efficient teams from the charity stripe. Neither team will be an easy out, and the scoreboard will likely be a reflection of either the turnover-prone Buffaloes or the poor interior defense of the Huskies.
OUR PICK: Colorado
RPI: UConn
538: UConn
Maryland Terrapins (5) vs. SD State Jackrabbits (12)
The Jackrabbits should be considered as an upset pick; after all, they led the Summit League in nearly every category and boast a handful of scorers and matchup problems. Still, they’d have to defeat the turtle, who were one of the nation’s most accurate teams from the foul line and is solid on defense. One thing to note: the Terps are one of the most turnover-prone teams in the country, but could be potent if they get it going in the Big Dance.
OUR PICK: SDSU
RPI: Maryland
538: Maryland
California Golden Bears (4) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (13)
Both Cal and the Rainbows excelled against tough teams this season. The Golden Bears beat Oregon, Utah and Arizona, while the Rainbow Warriors lost close battles to Oklahoma and Texas Tech, while they beat Northern Iowa. Both teams have glaring weaknesses, though: Cal turned the ball over at a high rate and shot the ball terribly from the charity stripe, while Hawaii also ranked near the bottom in turnovers and free-throw shooting.
OUR PICK: Cal
RPI: Cal
538: Cal
Arizona Wildcats (6) vs. Wichita State Shockers (11)
The Shockers are hot — but so are the Wildcats. While Wichita isn’t nearly as deep as they have been in the past couple of years, when they went on multiple Cinderella runs, nobody wants to face Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker in the first round of the tourney. Meanwhile, the ‘Cats are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, and have shot the rock very well.
OUR PICK: Wichita State
RPI: Arizona
538: Toss-up
Miami (FL) Hurricanes (3) vs. Buffalo Bulls (14)
After a two-year absence, the ‘Canes are baaaack. This year, they’ll be forced to play an upstart Buffalo team that’s peaking at the right time. After giving West Virginia a scare last March, the Bulls have a balanced blend of freshmen and transfers. The Hurricanes have two quality guards, but have occasional lapses from long range. Whoever comes out more focused will likely walk out with a W, which is why picking the Bulls is a safer Cinderella pick than most.
OUR PICK: Buffalo
RPI: Miami
538: Miami
Iowa Hawkeyes (7) vs. Temple Owls (10)
The Hawkeyes shoot well from downtown and rarely turn the ball over, but Fran McCaffrey’s squad has witnessed a late-season collapse on the defensive end of the floor. This was evidenced by Iowa’s jaw-dropping upset loss to Illinois in the first round of the Big Ten tourney. On the other hand, Fran Dunphy will need to erase his shaky tournament reputation when the Owls face the Hawkeyes. A positive note for Temple: their turnover percentage led the ACC.
OUR PICK: Temple
RPI: Miami
538: Iowa
Villanova Wildcats (2) vs. UNC Ashville Bulldogs (15)
‘Nova hasn’t had much success in the NCAA Tournament in the past — but it’s never too late to change, is it? The ‘Cats are more balanced than they’ve ever been before, especially on the defensive end. They’ll face the inexperienced and small Bulldogs, who even on their best night likely wouldn’t be able to pull off the upset.
OUR PICK: Villanova
RPI: Villanova
538: Villanova