Spending doesn’t always equal winning, and the New York Yankees prudent approach has shaped their roster to contend in 2016.
By Patrick Brewer
The Yankees have made a few notable moves, accompanied by several lesser deals. The common thread throughout this offseason for the Yankees has been making moves via trade rather than free agency. In years past, money was never an issue. Money is still not an issue, but the team is currently being run with a much different philosophy. For now, that strategy seems to be paying off.
This offseason has seen the Yankees make a blockbuster acquisition of Aroldis Chapman for a handful of prospects. Beyond that, the only two other notable moves the team has made were acquiring OF Aaron Hicks for C John Ryan Murphy as well as 2B/SS Starlin Castro for some lesser parts. The Yankees also traded away reliever Justin Wilson, but other than that, will carry over mostly the same roster for 2016.
For a team used to giving out $100+ million contracts, see Mark Texieira, Alex Rodriguez and Jacoby Ellsbury, this offseason has been a lot different. The Yankees have not signed any impact free agents, and have acquired players who only marginally increase the payroll for 2016. For the first time in a long time, the Yankees are operating as if they have a constrained budget. This strategy seems to be all by design.
With a few large contracts coming off the books in the next few years, including Tex, Rodriguez, Beltran, Sabathia, and others, the Yankees are banking on what they have now, waiting to spend until a more opportune time. While holding on spending, the Yankees have been banking on their future, with a minor league system that is better than it has been in years, perhaps even the entire 21st century.
Greg Bird, Luis Severino, Rob Refsnyder and others made an impact in 2015, while Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo and others are not too far behind. The Yankees are once again banking on younger talent, something that hasn’t been a focus in years. More so than anything else in 2016, the Yankees are banking on depth.
At almost every position around the diamond, the Yankees are banking on depth to carry them to success next season. If any issues arise, whether it be injury or performance, the Yankees have contingency plans for almost every scenario.
What follows is a position by position breakdown of that depth, and what players the Yankees can expect to have on the opening day roster.
All stats included are ZIPS projections for the 2016 season.
Pitching Staff
1. Masahiro Tanaka – 25 starts, 157.7 innings pitched, 3.82 ERA, 2.8 zWAR
2. Michael Pineda – 21 starts, 121.3 innings pitched, 3.86 ERA, 2.0 zWAR
3. Luis Severino – 30 starts, 154 innings pitched, 3.80 ERA, 2.7 zWAR
4. Nathan Eovaldi – 25 starts, 146.3 innings pitched, 4.24 ERA, 1.6 zWAR
5. CC Sabathia – 21 starts, 124.7 innings pitched, 4.98 ERA, 0.2 zWAR
At least on paper, the Yankees look to have a relatively formidable rotation. However, that rotation comes with some significant question marks. First off, nearly all of the guys currently slated to be in the rotation missed at least some time in 2015. Tanaka, Pineda, and Sabathia are all pretty big injury concerns, with a history of missed time. Nathan Eovaldi, who has missed some significant time, and Luis Severino, who is still young and likely will not be overworked in 2016, cannot be considered locks for success just yet.
That is where the Yankees pitching depth once again comes in. Severino is seemingly ready to pitch a full season, so the Yankees could push Ivan Nova to the bullpen, where he will work as a long relief man and also be available in case any injuries occur. Add Bryan Mitchell as well, and the Yankees certainly have at least some depth to get by in case of an injury to the starting staff. The loss of Adam Warren will hurt, but the Yankees do have at least some depth.
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman – 63 games, 62 innings pitched, 2.47 ERA, 1.8 zWAR
Andrew Miller – 56 games, 52 innings pitched, 2.25 ERA, 1.3 zWAR
Dellin Betances – 71 games, 85 innings pitched, 2.12 ERA, 2.4 zWAR
Ivan Nova – 19 games- 18 starts, 109.3 innings pitched, 4.45 ERA, 0.9 zWAR
Bryan Mitchell – 29 games- 20 starts, 108.3 innings pitched, 5.48 ERA, -0.6 zWAR
Jacob Lindgren – 29 games, 38.3 innings pitched, 3.76 ERA, 0.3 zWAR
Chasen Shreve – 62 games, 66 innings pitched, 3.95 ERA, 0.3 zWAR
James Pazos – 43 games, 53.3 innings pitched, 4.22 ERA, 0.0 zWAR
Branden Pinder – 43 games, 54.3 innings pitched, 4.80 ERA, -0.4 zWAR
Nick Goody – 52 games, 67.7 innings pitched, 3.86 ERA, 0.4 zWAR
Of the several additions the Yankees made this offseason, the bullpen perhaps saw the biggest one. The acquisition of Aroldis Chapman gives the Yankees perhaps the most formidable back three in all of baseball, and perhaps even the best of all time. Chapman has already been named the closer, while Betances and Miller are likely to share 7th/8th inning roles depending on game situations. Beyond them, the Yankees will likely have either one or both of Nova or Mitchell to serve in a long relief or spot start.
Beyond those five, the Yankees will likely have a bit of uncertainty in the last two spots of their bullpen. The loss of Justin Wilson hurts the Yankees in the mid to late innings, but replacing him with Chapman is a pretty good trade. Both Shreve and Pinder were good for the Yankees in 2015, and could fill those final two roles. The Yankees also have some talent in Lindgren, Pazos, and Goody, all of whom could play parts in the bullpen next season. Just like in the starting staff, the Yankees are relying on depth in the bullpen behind the big three, unproven as it may be.
Catcher
Brian McCann – 479 plate appearances, .245/.317/.432, 107 OPS+, 3.1 zWAR
Austin Romine – 302 plate appearances, .241/.282/.379, 83 OPS+, 0.8 zWAR
Gary Sanchez – 446 plate appearances, .240/.291/.434, 99 OPS+, 1.9 zWAR
One position the Yankees are really banking on the depth they have is catcher. Following the trade of John Ryan Murphy in order to add some outfield depth in Aaron Hicks, the Yankees are really banking on Brian McCann staying healthy this year, with a combination of Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez playing a part when needed as well. It’s likely Romine starts the year as the backup, but could be pushed out of that role with a strong performance by Sanchez in the minors at the start of next season. Either way, the Yankees have needed depth.
1st Base
Mark Teixeira – 350 plate appearances, .238/.331/.464, 119 OPS+, 1.5 zWAR
Greg Bird – 518 plate appearances, .252/.324/.486, 122 OPS+, 2.0 zWAR
While quite a few Yankees fans are upset that Greg Bird may start the season in the minors, or in a utility role, it is really the best strategy for the team in 2016. Bird did fill in admirably for Texieira in 2015 when the former was injured, but when Tex is healthy he should be the starter. Given his age, Tex is prone to injury and could see another DL stint in 2016. Therefore it makes a lot of sense to have Bird as an insurance policy. Bird’s ability to also play third base, DH, and even outfield in a pinch allows him to be insurance for a few other players as well. Once again, having depth should benefit the Yankees in 2016.
2nd Base
Starlin Castro – 639 plate appearances, .274/.310/.405, 98 OPS+, 2.2 zWAR
Dustin Ackley – 448 plate appearances, .253/.310/.415, 100 OPS+, 0.7 zWAR
Rob Refsnyder – 539 plate appearances, .248/.318/.395, 98 OPS+, 1.9 zWAR
Out of all the positions in the starting lineup, the Yankees made the biggest upgrade at second base. After spending the 2015 season using a combination of Stephen Drew, Brendan Ryan, Rob Refsnyder, and Dustin Ackley, the Yankees will go into 2016 with Starlin Castro as their starting second baseman. The team did have to give up the aforementioned Ryan as well as Adam Warren, but the Yankees are better after that trade. Refsnyder and Ackley provide depth at not only second base, but also elsewhere in the infield and outfield respectively.
3rd Base
Chase Headley – 581 plate appearances, .251/.329/.398, 102 OPS+, 2.7 zWAR
At third base the Yankees really only have one player to count on in Chase Headley. Obviously, either Alex Rodriguez or Greg Bird, or even Castro or Refsnyder, can fill in in a pinch, but Headley will likely see the bulk of playing time at third. Headley also has a good track record of staying healthy, which should allow him to stay on the field for much of next season. Third base should be quite consistent for the Yankees in 2016, but once again the depth is there if it is needed.
Shortstop
Didi Gregorious – 560 plate appearances, .257/.317/.379, 93 OPS+, 2.4 zWAR
Going into 2015, there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Yankees shortstop situation. With all due respect to Didi Gregorious, he was and is no Derek Jeter. However, Gregorious performed well in that role, showing he was capable of being a good player for the Yankees. It looks like Didi will be the shortstop of the future for the Yankees (at least until Jorge Mateo is ready for the big time). Gregorious should get the bulk of playing time at short, but the Yankees have a few options in Castro/Refsnyder should he get injured at any point next season.
Outfield
Jacoby Ellsbury – 538 plate appearances, .269/.324/.383, 97 OPS+, 2.2 zWAR
Brett Gardner – 547 plate appearances, .256/.330/.405, 104 OPS+, 2.0 zWAR
Carlos Beltran – 450 plate appearances, .252/.311/.429, 104 OPS+, 0.3 zWAR
Aaron Hicks -498 plate appearances, .238/.313/.391, 95 OPS+, 1.8 zWAR
Slade Heathcott – 278 plate appearances, .231/.274/.350, 73 OPS+, 0.4 zWAR
In the outfield, the Yankees probably have the biggest injury concerns of all. All three of Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner missed playing time last season, and all three could do the same in 2016. However, the Yankees are in a pretty good position in terms of viable backups should any of the three starters get injured again. While Chris Young has departed, Aaron Hicks will be his replacement, which could very well be an upgrade for the Yankees. The team also has both Dustin Ackley and Slade Heathcott as potential backups, while Aaron Judge looms in the minors, nearly ready for the show.
Designated Hitter
Alex Rodriguez – 481 plate appearances, .237/.331/.449, 115 OPS+, 1.5 zWAR
Alex Rodriguez will once again fill the role of designated hitter. Should he get injured at any point in the season, Greg Bird is more than capable of filling a void if necessary. Once again depth should come in handy for the Yankees if the need arises.
Yankees Projected 2016 Roster
Starting Rotation
2. Luis Severino
4. Nathan Eovaldi
5. CC Sabathia
Bullpen
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Setup: Andrew Miller
Setup: Dellin Betances
Middle Relief: Chasen Shreve
Middle Relief: Jacob Lindgren
Middle Relief: Branden Pinder
Long Relief: Ivan Nova
Starting Lineup
C: Brian McCann
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Starlin Castro
SS: Didi Gregorious
3B: Chase Headley
LF: Brett Gardner
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Carlos Beltran
DH: Alex Rodriguez
Bench
C: Austin Romine
1B/3B/OF: Greg Bird
2B/OF: Dustin Ackley
OF: Aaron Hicks
Going into 2016, the Yankees may actually have a lesser payroll than they did in 2015. Although payroll actually might be less than last season, the Yankees look better on paper going into next season. The team has made strong upgrades at various positions around the diamond, all via trade, keeping the total money down for next year. The Yankees didn’t make any additions via free agency, but did improve the roster significantly through trade.
As evidenced above, at nearly every position around the diamond, the Yankees have a good bit of depth they are counting on for 2016. With injury concerns throughout the rotation and lineup, Brian Cashman has built a team filled with depth to cover any possible contingency. These aren’t the spending Yankees of years past, but that may be the best thing for this year’s team.