The New York Mets fell just short of the ultimate prize, but it’s never too early to forecast important decisions looming this winter.
By Greg Cambareri
Free agency is officially under way, qualifying offers will be extended soon, arbitration/non tender candidates need to be sorted out, and the winter meetings are just over a month away. The Mets just provided their fans with one of the most eventful seasons in franchise history. Expectations will be raised, excitement will be heightened, and the fan base will be as hungry as ever to return to the Fall Classic.
Who will the Mets sign (or re-sign), trade, or tender? How many new faces will we see on opening day? There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s take a look at the top 5 offseason moves Sandy Alderson and company might make.
Love him or hate him, the days of Yoenis Cespedes are over.
You read that correctly. The Mets are not going to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes. Rumors have been swirling since the season ended on Sunday night that this was likely, but it really shouldn’t come as much surprise. Look, the monstrous homers, elite speed, cannon-like arm, and cool bat flips make Cespedes someone that Mets fans want to see wearing orange and blue long term. I get that. Sorry, but it’s just going to happen.
Cespedes posted career highs in homers (35) and RBI’s (105). He’s never hit more than 26 prior to this season. In 57 games with the Mets he posted a ridiculous .604 slugging percentage and a .942 OPS, numbers well north of previous career highs. Those numbers are highly unlikely to replicated, especially over the course of 162 games.
From mid August to mid September, Cespedes went on a white hot tear that could have made him millions in free agency. His video game like power, great speed, and solid defense were finally on a big stage in New York, for everyone to see. Outside of that month long stretch, Cespedes wasn’t really that good. He struggled in the postseason, with the exception of two or three good games (the Mets played 14 playoff games). His plate discipline is sub par; too many times he swung for the fences, failed to put the ball in play, when the Mets just needed good contact. We have seen him fail to chase loose balls in the outfield and run plays out. Some of these things are easy to overlook when you hit 450 foot home runs, but for the money he’s going to command, is it really worth it?
Speaking of his expected contract, Cespedes has already stated he wants a minimum of six years, which is risky for a player who recently turned 30. Remember minimum, it’s not crazy that he could land a seven or eight year contract (or longer, for that matter). We live in a world where Shin Soo Choo signed a 7yr/$130m pact. It’s also worthy to note Cespedes is a client of Roc Nation Sports, the same group that landed Robinson Cano a 10 yr/$240m contract not too long ago. He won’t require draft pick compensation, only adding to his appeal. This is a 5 tool player, and power bat, in an era where power is at a premium.
Theoretically, could the Mets afford him anyway?
The Mets had their highest attendance since Citi Field opened in 2009. Revenue from concessions, parking, season tickets, and sales of the most expensive seats should be up. Their blog network (Metsblog.com) has never been more profitable. The postseason home games and merchandise should bring in a little extra cash, too. There’s only about $65 million committed to players for next season (not counting arbitration eligible players). So, the Mets should have the money to afford Cespedes.
It’s still not going to happen.
Until ownership proves it’s willing to spend big, Cespedes is likely to sign elsewhere. The Mets also have four outfielders expected to receive ample playing time next year. What might be most important, is saving cash to give extensions to the young pitching staff. Losing Cespedes will be tough, but extending DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, and Matz is much more important.
Thanks for the memories, Yo.
Daniel Murphy will likely receive and reject a qualifying offer.
Daniel Murphy went from October legend, to October disaster in a matter of a week. Regardless, he’s lined himself up for a nice multi year contract this winter.
It’s hard to imagine the Mets not extending Murphy a QO over the next week. Could he become the first player in history to accept it? Maybe.
Murphy has been with the organization since 2006, and surely feels comfortable in New York. However, his versatility, low strikeout rate, and new found power is likely to earn him something similar to Chase Headley’s 4yr/$52m deal, which he agreed to last offseason.
While the draft pick compensation could hurt his value, his mediocre defense, and career low WAR (1.4) will give teams reason to be wary of the player they may be pursuing. Still, he can play three positions, hit almost anywhere in a lineup, and was the toughest man in the league to strikeout last season, in a game where K’s are at an all time high.
Murphy can play, there’s no doubt about it. However, the Mets have 21 year old prized prospect Dilson Herrera in mind to take over at second base. Wilmer Flores has shown he can adequately handle the position, too. They both make near the major league minimum and possess youth.
Again, thanks for one heck of an October Murph, but a new chapter is about to be written.
Jon Niese won’t be traded and will feature in the Mets rotation next April.
This might not be a popular move, but it is what it is. The Mets may try to find a trade partner for Jon Niese this winter, but in all likelihood, he’ll be in the Mets starting rotation next season.
Niese looked sharp coming out of the bullpen this postseason, but his career might not be ready for that as his full time gig. Bartolo Colon is 42 and a free agent, so who knows if he’s going to pitch next year, and if it’s even as a starter. The Mets are going to need Niese in the rotation if Colon is not brought back or if they decide to keep a six man rotation to help monitor the innings limits of their young aces. Remember, Zack Wheeler won’t be ready until around the all star break as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.
Niese is owed 9 million dollars next season, has a lengthy injury history, and has only posted a WAR over 1.0 twice in his career. He has thrown over 190 innings just once before. However, he has posted an FIP under 4.00, four separate times in his career. Still, those aren’t very attractive credentials for a trade.
Mets fans may not look forward to Niese’s starts next year, but he’s going to play a part in the Mets rotation.
The Mets will add a left handed relief pitcher to bolster the bullpen.
For 162 games, the Mets played the entire season without a consistent left hander coming out of the bullpen. That’s going to change in 2016.
Jon Niese did well working out of the ‘pen in the playoffs, but he’s likely to return to the rotation next year. Josh Edgin will be rehabbing from Tommy John for at least the first half of the season, and who knows how effective he’ll be when he returns.
Could the Mets bring back Jerry Blevins (pictured above)? Why not? He was great in a small sample size before missing the remainder of the season to injury, and shouldn’t cost much to re-sign. Low risk, high reward moves aren’t a bad gamble.
While the Mets will give Dario Alvarez and maybe AA flamethrower Josh Smoker a chance to make the club out of spring training, they need a proven commodity to get lefties out. The free agent market features Antonio Bastardo, Neal Cotts, Franklin Morales, and Tony Sipp as some of the top LHP on the relief market. The Mets should have plenty of room to add payroll in a much needed area.
Sandy Alderson hasn’t spent big on the ‘pen, but that should change after seeing his team dominated in a bullpen battle during the World Series.
Look for the Mets to trade top outfield prospect Brandon Nimmo during the offseason.
The Mets have four players who should all vie for time in the outfield next season, which could make top prospect Brandon Nimmo a valuable trade chip.
The Mets could look to upgrade at shortstop, which is the only real question mark going into next season. If they decide to acquire an outfielder, and go with a surplus like they did this season, they might prefer a proven commodity over the AAA Nimmo. He was Alderson’s first ever draft pick and has worked his way up to triple-A Las Vegas, but the Mets are ready to win now.
Nimmo can play all three outfield positions, runs well, and projects as a solid but not spectacular hitter. Pitching dominates the game today, so positional players hold great value at the moment.
Who Nimmo gets moved for or packaged with is hard to tell, but he will be one of the most valuable trade chips Alderson has if he chooses to engage in a swap.