The 3 Best Bills vs. Bucs Player Props

12/12/2021

bills bucs player props — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Buccaneers host the Bills in the only game on Sunday’s card that pits two teams with winning records against one another. Buffalo needs the win to both keep pace in the AFC East race and hold onto a wild card spot, while Tampa Bay hopes to wrap up the NFC South title by day’s end. This one is arguably the day’s best game and figures to draw heavy betting action.

Let’s take a look at the best Bills vs. Buccaneers player props picks for this key NFL Week 14 matchup.

Bills vs. Bucs Player Props Picks

Josh Allen Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes

If we have learned anything over the last several seasons, it’s that running the football against Tampa Bay is largely a fruitless venture. The Bucs ranked first against the run each of the last two seasons and have held that position again throughout much of this campaign. Much of that correlates to the types of scores the team allows, as well.

Only eight of the 29 offensive touchdowns the Buccaneers have allowed in 2021 have come on the ground, with only six of those scored by running backs. In fact, Tampa has already allowed four receiving scores by backs this season, two-thirds the amount scored on the ground by running backs.

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Combine that with the facts that Buffalo is a middling rush team at best and that we expect there to be plenty of points scored in this game, owner of the highest posted total this week, and the logical derivative becomes Buffalo generating its scores via the passing game. Josh Allen has multiple capable threats at wide receiver, the joint-NFL leader in receiving touchdowns among tight ends, and a running back room that has caught three touchdowns. This is likely to prove too much for a Tampa Bay defense that ranks just 20th against the pass and 17th in points per game allowed.

When Josh Allen throws a fastball like this for a touchdown to Gabriel Davis, it ain't gonna get blown around in the wind. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/cC2MPiycOf

— Billy Heyen (@BillyHeyen) December 7, 2021

Allen has thrown three or more touchdown passes four times already this season, throwing eight touchdowns in the three games Buffalo played with the highest posted totals. He tallied multiple passing scores in all but three games , as well, with one of those missteps obviously coming last Monday night in the wind against New England. Following the other two games in which Allen failed to throw for more than one touchdown, Buffalo responded by scoring five touchdowns the next time out. If we see a similar response here and if Tampa stays true to its stingy run defense reputation, Allen is likely to break out for at least three passing scores in this one.

Leonard Fournette to Score 2+ Touchdowns

Obviously, you can simplify this ask by playing Leonard Fournette as an anytime touchdown scorer and still return essentially even money. However, we are looking for the big pay day with this prop, as it can be found with roughly +440 odds, depending one where you shop. Again, based on the posted total, this game promises to be a back-and-forth affair loaded with scores. And, based on Tampa’s recent touchdown spread, Fournette makes a ton of sense to snag a couple of those.

For starters, the Bucs average an NFL high 31.4 points per game on the season, spiking to 38.4 points per game at home, also a league best. Within those sparkling numbers is Fournette, who has risen to ninth in the league with seven rushing touchdowns, adding another two via the pass. Those nine total scores has him tied for fifth most among active NFL backs.

Fournette has been leaned more heavily upon of late, as well, averaging over 20 touches a game in the team’s last four outings, including at least six catches in each of those contests. He has scored five touchdowns in the last two games alone and will face a Buffalo defense that is softer against the run than the pass.

Buffalo ranks just 12th against the rush this season, while being the league’s best passing yardage defense. That has trickled down to the types of touchdowns the Bills allow, as well, with only six of the 20 touchdowns scored against them going to receivers and tight ends. The bulk of the scores the Bills have allowed have come on the ground and nine of those were scored by running backs. In fact, opposing backs managed two receiving scores against Buffalo as well.

Lenny snags it with one hand for the TD! @_fournette #GoBucs

?: #TBvsATL on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/ZMp6esBRS7

— NFL (@NFL) December 5, 2021

Derrick Henry put up three touchdowns against the Bills this season, with Jonathan Taylor scoring five times when Buffalo hosted Indianapolis. Those are the only two backs the Bills have faced with more total touchdowns this season than Fournette. It stands to reason he could have a monster game here, as well.

Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown Scorer

As previously discussed, it’s extremely difficult to break through against the Tampa Bay run defense. In fact, 72.4 percent of the offensive touchdowns scored against the Bucs have come through the air. More than half of those went to wide receivers and we are banking on one of the league’s best to join that group here.

Only three teams have had wideouts score multiple touchdowns against Tampa Bay this season. However, all three of those teams, like Buffalo, are ranked in the top 11 in the NFL in total yards per game. Dallas ranks first in that category, with the Rams sixth, and the Colts 11th. Those three teams produced eight of the 11 touchdowns thrown to receivers against the Bills in 2021. It can hardly be a coincidence that those three matchups also saw three of the four biggest posted totals for Tampa in 2021, with all three games producing at least 58 total points, opponents accounting for at least 29 points in each.

Josh Allen ➡️ Stefon Diggs ➡️ TD

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/gAb4mmbzAF

— ESPN (@espn) November 26, 2021

You could even throw those encouraging stats aside and, at the end of the day, you are still backing an elite weapon to find paydirt, something Stefon Diggs is capable of at any moment in any game against any opponent. To put it in a bit of perspective, the guy caught four of seven targets in that mess Monday night when only 17 passes were completed by both teams combined.

Diggs led the NFL with 147 catches and 1846 yards in 2020 and is in the top ten in both categories once again this season. He also had 10 receiving touchdowns last season, the league’s tenth best mark, and has seven already this season, tied for ninth best.

Prior to the weather-affected game against the Patriots, Diggs had scored in three straight outings and five of the team’s last six, tallying six of his seven scores in that stretch. It’s almost impossible to imagine this game following the oddsmakers’ script without Diggs being part of the scoring.

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