bears packers player props
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

It appears Justin Fields will be healthy enough to make his return Sunday night for Chicago. The Bears (4-8), losers of six of their last seven, travel to Lambeau Field as double-digit underdogs to face the Green Bay Packers (9-3). Green Bay will look to keep pressure on the Arizona Cardinals for the coveted top seed in the NFC with a victory here. We shopped the available player prop bets for this NFC North primetime encounter and identified three props we love more than the rest.

Let’s take a look at the best Bears vs. Packers player props picks for this key NFL Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup.

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Bears vs. Packers Player Props Picks

Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer

If it was 2020, picking this would be the equivalent of picking the sun to come up in the morning. Davante Adams posted 18 regular season touchdown catches and another two in the playoffs. His regular season tally led all receivers and was the third highest single-season mark in NFL history behind only Randy Moss and Jerry Rice.

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This year, however, the scoring has slowed a bit for Adams, scoring just five times thus far, despite sitting second in the league in receptions per game and third in receiving yards per outing. Those relative struggles help make this a good spot for arguably the NFL’s best receiver to cross the goal line at a fairly cheap price.

The Packers have scored 32 offensive touchdowns thus far in 2021 and have topped 30 points in back-to-back games. Only seven of those have come on the ground, a mere 21.9 percent. Of the 25 scored via the pass, wide receivers notched 15, good for 60 percent. It’s surely an anomaly that Adams has accounted for just one-third of those.

Chicago’s defense offers an opportunity for Adams to change this season’s scoring narrative a bit. The Bears have allowed 32 scores, with just 28.1 percent of those coming on the ground. Wide receivers have scored 17 of those 32 touchdowns (53.1 percent), accounting for 73.9 percent of the touchdowns Chicago has conceded through the air.

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A wide receiver has scored against the Bears in 10 of their 12 games thus far, including a score in the first meeting with Green Bay. Adams was kept out of the endzone in that one, compiling his lowest catch total of the season. Expect a focused effort toward revenge from him here. After all, he had scored in three straight meetings with Chicago prior to that outing, as well as six of the last eight times in this head-to-head.

Aaron Rodgers Anytime Touchdown Scorer

As mentioned, the Bears concede a far higher percentage of the touchdowns against them through the air than on the ground. However, something jumps off the page in regards to the rushing touchdowns they have allowed. Of the nine touchdowns scored on the ground against Chicago, five were by quarterbacks, including two last week.

The quarterbacks to score with their feet against Chicago fit the Aaron Rodgers mold, as well, as Kyler Murray contributed the two in Week 13 and Jimmy Garoppolo notched two more in Week 8. Aaron Rodgers, himself, was the other quarterback to run one in against the Bears this season, scoring from six yards out in the first meeting.

Rodgers rushed seven times for 19 yards in that first meeting, although four of those were kneel downs. He does not run with the ball as often as he used to, but he has two or more rushes to his name in six straight games. And, he is making his rushes count, tallying three ground scores, which wildly ties him for the team lead. His two runs for scores not against Chicago both came here at home, including one last week against the Rams.

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Interestingly, the Packers won all three games in which Rodgers ran one in by at least eight points. Could they follow that recipe for success again here? It seems likely to us and we expect to see the NFL’s second leading active quarterback in career rushing touchdowns earn another one here, paying us out at roughly +350 odds.

David Montgomery Under 18.5 Receiving Yards

If you watched last week’s Chicago-Arizona game, you might have serious doubts about this prop selection. After all, David Montgomery piled up eight catches on nine targets for 51 receiving yards. However, you will see that his performance in Week 13 was just an immense outlier.

Those eight catches accounted for 40 percent of Montgomery’s reception total for the entire season. He was never targeted more than four times in the pass game in any other outing and never caught more than three balls before that outburst. Lining up with that fact, Montgomery did not eclipse 28 receiving yards in any other game, only topping this prop bet’s requirement two other times all year.

Making matters worse, when you break down Montgomery’s quarterbacks for this season’s games, something else stands out.

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In the team’s most recent two games, Andy Dalton was under center and Montgomery proceeded to post his two highest receiving yardage games of the season, the 51 yard and 28 yard efforts mentioned above. However, in the six games where Justin Fields was his quarterback, Montgomery never topped 21 yards, averaging just 1.5 catches, 2 targets, and 12.5 receiving yards per game.

Also worth noting, Montgomery has not had a reception of more than 12 yards in 2021, meaning he would need at least two catches to ruin this pick. In fact, with his 7.7 yards per reception average, it’s more likely he will need to haul in three balls to get it done, something he has done just three times all season.

Green Bay has also been tough on opposing backs in the passing game this year. Only one back caught more than four balls against the Pack all season. Not a single opposing running back had more than 41 receiving yards against Green Bay either, despite the Packers having faced the league’s third, fifth, and sixth best backs in terms of receiving yards, in addition to Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Chase Edmonds. It should be difficult for Montgomery to get things going in the passing game here, especially with Fields likely back taking the snaps.

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