The Top Ravens vs. Dolphins Player Props Picks

11/11/2021

ravens dolphins player props — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Baltimore Ravens head to Miami on Thursday night to play their first road game in over a month. The host Dolphins enter play off their first win since September, but begin a stretch of winnable games after this week. A victory tonight could spark a run, although it would be quite the upset.

Let’s take a look at this NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup with our best Ravens vs. Dolphins player props picks.

Ravens vs. Dolphins Player Props

Marquise Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer

The only player with lower odds to score a touchdown on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 is Lamar Jackson. Most would not have expected that from a Baltimore offense that leads the league in rushing yards per game. However, with the running back by committee and bevy of backfield injuries for the Ravens, Marquise Brown has become the main threat for this team outside of its quarterback.

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Brown leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and his receiving touchdown tally of six is twice as many as any of his teammates and nearly half that the team has accumulated on the season (13). Brown has achieved double-digit targets in three of the team’s last four games, recording three scores in that span.

Most receiving TDs when QB is under pressure:

T-? Marquise Brown: 3

Lamar Jackson’s best friend ? pic.twitter.com/J2ryqoXE8E

— PFF BAL Ravens (@PFF_Ravens) November 4, 2021

Baltimore has recorded at least one receiving touchdown in every game this season with a receiver reaching paydirt in seven of the team’s eight contests. The Ravens face a Miami defense that is better at stopping the run than the pass. In fact, this unit allows the NFL’s third most yards per game.

The Dolphins have also conceded at least one passing touchdown in every game, seeing opponents score through the air 17 times already, tied for fifth most per game (1.9). Wide receivers have scored 12 of those 17 touchdowns, including at least one in eight of the team’s nine outings.

After a brutal stretch of defense in Weeks 5-8, the touchdown streak stopped last week against Houston, but after Miami kept Colts receivers out of the end zone in Week 4, the team’s only other blanking of wide receivers this season, the Dolphins turned around and allowed four scores to Buccaneers wideouts in Week 5.

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Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

If we are correct on our first prop bet selection, barring an injury or trick play, we will be halfway to cashing this one, as well. We don’t believe Brown scoring is compulsory for this pick to prove a winner.

For starters, we just discussed Miami’s struggles against the pass this season. Allowing 17 passing touchdowns through nine games is no resume-builder, especially for a defense also conceding the third most passing yards, third most total yards, and sixth most points per game this season.

As mentioned above, Baltimore’s offense has a slightly different feel this season, despite still leading the league in rushing yards per game. The Ravens are also quietly No. 8 in passing yardage, en route to the seventh most points per game.

Tell everyone @Lj_era8 was mic'd up! Tell everyone! ???

Wired drops at 8 p.m. ➡️ https://t.co/pSCvUAqDJ0 pic.twitter.com/ZLVp7WaL5O

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 11, 2021

With 266.3 passing yards per game, there will inevitably come some touchdowns through the air. That has certainly proven true for Jackson, who has thrown for 13 touchdowns, while only rushing for two thus far. Interestingly, Miami has only allowed one rushing touchdown by a quarterback this year, despite facing Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen (twice), two guys who have run it in a combined five times already.

If Jackson fails to score with his legs once again, it’s a good bet the team’s scores will come via his right arm. He has thrown at least one touchdown in every game this season, and faces a team which has allowed more than one score through the air in six of its last eight games.

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Mike Gesicki Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

While Baltimore boasts one of the best run-stopping units in football this season, its pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Ravens allow 282.5 yards per game through the air, the second worst mark in the NFL, ahead of only Washington. Opponents are attempting 41.3 passes per game against the Ravens when they are on the road, the third highest mark league-wide.

Baltimore also allows the second worst average in terms of yards per completion at 12.2 yards per catch. Opponents are picking passing plays 64.72 percent of the time against the Ravens, the third highest rate to date, one that spikes to over 67 percent when Baltimore is away from home.

Run it back, @mikegesicki. Oh my… #FinsUp

?: #HOUvsMIA on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/dmg6a1KEmU

— NFL (@NFL) November 7, 2021

Mike Gesicki is likely to be a beneficiary of those statistics, as Baltimore has struggled to minimize opposing tight end yardage numbers all season. The season opened with Darren Waller and Travis Kelce both topping 100 yards receiving against the Ravens. Since then, opposing tight ends have consistently achieved 45 yards or more against this unit, with C.J. Uzomah tallying 91 yards and two scores for Cincinnati two weeks ago.

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Gesicki has been putting up solid numbers all season. He leads the team in receiving yards, averaging 58.8 yards per game. He is second to only rookie Jaylen Waddle in targets and receptions and has produced 10 plays of 20+ yards already this season, twice as many as any other Dolphin.

Gesicki has totaled 41 or more yards in each of his last eight games, a great show of consistency on an offense that has been oscillating between quarterbacks all season. The Penn State product has reached 54 yards in five of his last seven games, while also hitting that number or better in each of his team’s last four games at home or at a neutral site.

He averaged 77.8 yards per game in those four outings and we expect something similar here in a game in which his team may be forced to the air to keep pace with the high-scoring and heavily-favored Ravens.

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