nfl week 7 upset picks

If you are a believer in the cyclical nature of life and sports betting, this could be the week for you to invest in some NFL underdogs. Such teams entered Week 6 with a solid 45-35 ATS record, only to watch all seven favorites cover during the early time slot. Oddsmakers usually take a hit when favorites cash so readily and last week was the worst for sportsbooks in 35 years. As such, expect some juiced up favorites this week, producing some extra value in several underdog plays.

Let’s take a look at our three best underdog NFL upsets picks for Week 7 action.

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Three Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 7

Bengals vs. Ravens

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have deservedly moved to the forefront of AFC contenders after rattling off five straight wins. A complete domination of Justin Herbert and the Chargers last week solidified Baltimore’s spot as public sweethearts, and we are going to gladly gobble up the extra points that come with that love. This week, we’re backing a Cincinnati team that we think is a lot closer to the Ravens than this line suggests.

A defense that has improved markedly from last season, coupled with the dangerous Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase connection, have catapulted the Bengals to the league’s fifth best scoring defense (18.5 ppg) and 12th best scoring offense (24.7 ppg). That defense, via great balance against both the pass (13th) and run (eighth), has allowed the eighth fewest yards per game thus far, a tremendous leap from its 26th ranking in 2020.

Notably, the Cincy offense might just be tapping the outer edges of its potential, as its scoring ranking is far superior to its yardage totals (21st), a tip of the hat to what is the NFL’s third best red zone touchdown offense, finding paydirt on 83.3% of its trips inside the 20.

The Bengals catch the Ravens having to play their first division game off of that big win over Los Angeles. That could spell trouble for a Baltimore bunch that has failed to cover any of its last four games following an ATS victory. The Ravens have also covered just one of their last 12 games against division opponents when favored after a non-division game against teams .500 or better.

This spot falls into one of the few historical danger areas for Baltimore’s head coach and quarterback, as well. John Harbaugh entered the season at just 71-75 ATS as a favorite. And his quarterback, Lamar Jackson, despite going 5-0 SU against Baltimore since earning the starting spot, is just 9-13 ATS in his young career as a home favorite.


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ATS Trends and Stats to Know

Simply put, 6.5 points is a ton in this league, no matter the matchup. Even despite Baltimore’s consistent relevance over the last decade and Cincinnati’s corresponding general mediocrity or worse, the Ravens have only beaten the Bengals at home by more than this spread once over the last eight years. That one time was last season, setting up a nice revenge spot here, as the last time Baltimore thumped Cincy at home came back in Week 1 of the 2012 season.

The Bengals went on to cover this spread in each of the next nine head-to-head meetings, winning six of those encounters outright.

The road team in this division rivalry has covered four of the last five meetings, which should help accentuate a trend showing the Ravens at just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against opponents with winning road records. The Bengals should find this a great opportunity to extend their own 5-2 ATS away run against teams with winning home records.

Bengals vs. Ravens Pick

Cincinnati will be playing for a chance to steal first place from Baltimore, surely a huge talking point in the Bengals’ locker room this week. They have momentum of their own, entering off a dominant 34-11 victory at Detroit last Sunday in a total look-ahead/sandwich spot. The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs after a SU win by 15 or more points. They should be able to keep this one plenty close.

Our Pick: Cincinnati +6.5

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Washington vs. Green Bay

It’s almost as if the weird, tumultuous Green Bay offseason never happened, as Aaron Rodgers is playing his best brand of football while leading the Packers on a five-game win streak after dropping their opener to the Saints. A run like that will invariably lead to a monster spread when a team hosts the league’s worst scoring defense and, sure enough, Green Bay opened as double-digit favorites over the Washington Football Team here.

Still, we think oddsmakers have shoved a bit more into Green Bay’s collective mouth than it can chew and the Pack might be in for a closer game than would seem likely at first glance. The Packers are not a very good red zone team, scoring touchdowns on just 58.3% of their trips so far, just the 22nd best mark in the NFL. That mark is also below 2-4 Washington’s 62.5%, the 14th best overall.

Green Bay’s average scoring margin is just a +1.3, as well, which is just 13th in the NFL and easily the worst such number of any of the six teams with one loss or less. In fact, each of those other five teams have a +7.8 average scoring margin or better and land in the top six in the league in that statistical category.

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Green Bay’s head coach, Matt LaFleur, entered the season at just 12-14 ATS off a SU win and his Packers are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games against an opponent with a losing road record. This sets up nicely for a Washington team that is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games against opponents with a winning home record. In fact, WFT has covered four of its last five games against any team with an above .500 record.

The Washington Football team, which just lost 31-13 at home to the Chiefs, is a strong 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games after a double-digit SU home loss. In fact, the team’s only SU wins this season came after losses by 14 or more.

WFT head coach Ron Rivera is 5-1 ATS when playing with revenge, something it will have in its pocket here, as Green Bay won the last head-to-head meeting between these two, 20-15, at Lambeau Field. Ironically, the Packers were laying double-digits in that one, too, spotting 13 points in another failed cover.

Football Team vs. Packers Pick

Look for Washington to extend its current 14-1 ATS run as conference dogs of 8+ points, while continuing a three-game ATS winning streak against the Packers. Green Bay doesn’t cover big spreads well, historically, failing in each of its last four tries as double-digit favorites coming into this season.

At the same time, Washington has covered four straight as double-digit dogs, as well as eight of its last 10 in that role.

Our Pick: Washington +9 (Caesars Sportsbook -110)

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Philadelphia vs. Las Vegas

This one is more of a play-against with regards to Las Vegas than a play-on for Philadelphia. We believe that a team can rally around adversity in the short term and the Raiders’ win over Denver last week certainly fits the profile. However, this will be the team’s first full week without its now former head coach and reality should set in a bit.

This week, the Raiders don’t get to play a division foe that they already know incredibly well, and they’ll have to develop a game plan with an interim head coach who has never been the main guy in nearly 40 years as a coach.

You could see signs of the learning curve this team will have to tackle moving forward in the second half of its win at Denver last week. Playing on the road as an underdog, they were in the perfect pressure-free role for the fragile position imposed upon them.

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They built a 21-point lead early in the second half before having to hold on for a 34-24 victory, getting outscored 14-3 in the final quarter. Opposing teams are going to be able to make better adjustments than Las Vegas for a while and the Raiders are unlikely to consistently have a double-digit lead to hide behind.

ATS Trends and Stats to Know

Their opponent here, the Eagles, have done their best work on the road this season, where they are 2-1 and have yet to lose outside of the NFC East. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has seemed more comfortable away from Lincoln Financial Field, completing passes at a 9% higher clip on the road (66.7%). He will pose a difficult, dual-threat challenge for the Raiders, a team that struggled with Lamar Jackson in Week 1 and lost to Justin Fields in Week 5, the only other two quarterbacks they have faced that offer a danger via both on the ground and through the air.

Philadelphia’s defense sets up well against a pass-heavy Vegas attack and will have the added advantage of three extra days to prepare for this one, having last played 10 days ago. While the Raiders are third in the NFL in passing yards per game, the Eagles are fifth best at stopping the pass, despite having played the first, second, and fifth best passing teams.

The Raiders own a poor 20-42-1 ATS record in their last 63 games as favorites and have covered just one of their last six when laying points at home. They have failed to cover each of their last four against sub .500 opposition and are just 19-40 ATS in their last 59 home games against opponents with losing road records. The win at Denver last weekend sets them up to continue a shabby 8-19 ATS run following SU victories, as well.

Eagles vs. Raiders Pick

Look for Las Vegas to extend their 5-12 ATS October run here as reality catches up a bit. Philly should be able to prolong a four game ATS run by the dog and a 4-1 ATS streak by the road team in this head-to-head series with an outright victory Sunday afternoon.

Our Pick: Philadelphia +3

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