jaguars bengals player props picks

The Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals pits two of the game’s most promising young quarterbacks against one another with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence going head-to-head for the first time since the two battled for a college national championship two seasons ago. With that interesting subplot in the background, there are plenty of interesting individual player props bets to dial in on tonight.

Let’s jump into this Thursday Night Football NFL Week 4 matchup with a look at the best player props picks for Jaguars vs. Bengals.

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The Best Jaguars vs. Bengals Player Props Picks and Bets

James Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (DraftKings Sportsbook +135)

James Robinson, the once undrafted free agent running back out of Illinois State, has established himself as an indispensable part of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense. Considered part of a running-back-by-committee situation for the Jags along with Carlos Hyde following first-round draft pick Travis Etienne’s season-ending injury, Robinson seems instead to have earned primary back touches with his efforts thus far. He most recently out-touched Hyde 21-8 in Week 3.

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A big part of that edge has come from Robinson’s efficiency in the passing game. He caught all six targets in Week 3, tying him for the team lead in receptions and leaving him second in targets on Sunday. This exemplifies the growing reliance Trevor Lawrence has upon Robinson.

The Jaguars have thrown the ball at least 33 times in each game this season, averaging nearly 40 passes per game. Having that safety net in Robinson will be crucial for Lawrence if he is continually asked to drop back that often. Robinson will also be a steady safety valve as this currently poor Jaguars’ bunch is likely to continue to be trailing and chasing games late in the second half with their opposition dropping into softer coverages.

Robinson has 15 targets in the pass game already this season, tallying at least three catches in all three of the team’s games.

With the more vulnerable area of the Bengals’ defense looking like the pass defense, which sits just 14th best in the NFL in yards allowed (238.7) and 3rd worst in completions per game allowed (30.0), we think it very likely that Robinson sees plenty of balls thrown his way once again here.

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Marvin Jones Jr. Longest Reception Over 23.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -115)

Marvin Jones Jr. quickly forced himself to the front of a crowded Jaguars receiving group, becoming Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target in the early going.

Jones led Jacksonville with eight targets last week and pulled down six of those, two more than any other receiver on the team. Interestingly, it was also the only game this season where Jones did not catch a ball for more yards than this prop requires. He had a 33-yard catch in Week 1 and a 25-yard grab in Week 2.

Jones obviously sees plenty of the ball and is facing a team that allows 30 catches a game, more than all but two teams. The Jags’ wideout has had the ball thrown his way at least eight times in each game, tallying 28 targets through just three games, the 15th highest total in the league. He also finished in the top-40 amongst wide receivers in 2020 in yards per catch (12.9). He had 20+ yard receptions in 10 of his 16 games last season, including eight times in his last 11 outings.

The Bengals have allowed eight different players to catch balls of 20+ yards already this season, as well. Expect Jones to be able to get behind some guys in this one and cash this prop rather easily as the Bengals secondary perhaps bites on some double moves while looking to join the Lawrence-interception party that’s been happening all season long.

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Trevor Lawrence Over 267.5 Pass + Rush Yards (DraftKings Sportsbook -115)

This might feel ambitious at a glance, given that Lawrence has only achieved 139 and 246 total yards in Weeks 2 and 3 after throwing for 332 yards in Week 1. However, there are some encouraging signs hiding in the shadows that have generated our faith in the young signal caller ahead of this Thursday’s game. For starters, this game marks what you would have to assume is a massive redemption opportunity for a competitor like Lawrence.

Facing Burrow again for the first time since he was so massively outclassed in the title game two winters ago has to stick in his craw.

More importantly, however, than what to all of us is simply some vague sense of hopeful revenge, is the statistical improvement we are starting to see in Lawrence’s game. He had far and away his highest completion percentage thus far as a pro in Week 3, completing 22 of his 34 pass attempts (64.7%). He has also slowly been finding his way with his feet, an always under-appreciated skill set that Lawrence possesses.

After a kneel down before the half was his only rush attempt in Week 1, Lawrence amassed 21 yards on two rushes in Week 2, and then 27 yards on 6 efforts last Sunday.

If he can chip in 30+ yards with his feet in this one, the labor left to accomplish with his arm becomes wholly manageable. After all, as mentioned early, Cincinnati has allowed 30 completions per game, one of the worst marks in the league, and also give up 238.7 passing yards on average.

If Lawrence can hit that mark, coupled with those 30 yards on the ground, this prop is a winner. And there may be plenty more than that to be found through the air, given that the Bengals got fleeced for 336 yards by Kirk Cousins in their lone home game this season.

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