The Best Packers vs. 49ers Player Props Picks

09/26/2021

NFL: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers — PHOTO CREDIT: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

While the San Francisco 49ers opened the 2021 season with two road wins, Green Bay needed a strong bounceback performance from Aaron Rodgers in Week 2 to get to 1-1. The two teams will meet at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA on Sunday Night Football this weekend.

Let’s jump into this Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup with a look at the best Packers vs. 49ers player props picks.

49ers vs. Packers Player Props Picks

With a number of big-name skill players and several intriguing Packers-49ers player prop markets, let’s dive into some of our top picks for Sunday Night Football.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 2.5 Receptions (DraftKings Sportsbook -150)

Every Packers’ receiver will inevitably pale in every facet compared to Davante Adams. However, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is still a starter on an Aaron Rodgers-led offense and will be on the field for a bulk of this one. After topping this prop total in Week 1 with three catches on eight targets, Valdes-Scantling had a quiet Week 2 performance, failing to catch any of his four targets.

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He did, though, catch at least three balls in nine of his 16 games played last season, including both playoff outings, in which he had four catches apiece. The Green Bay wideout generally gets four to eight balls thrown his way in a game, so asking him to catch half or less seems reasonable here.

One big reason for us selecting Valdes-Scantling’s over here is the injury-riddled 49ers secondary that will be forced to make Davante Adams its priority.

San Francisco is starting a rookie fifth-rounder, Deommodore Lenoir, at one corner. They lost starter Jason Verrett to a season-ending injury and the team’s next choice to start, Emmanuel Moseley, is currently listed as questionable and did not play last week at Philadelphia. In other words, your best, healthiest option to cover arguably the league’s best receiver is a fifth-round rookie.

That seems like a situation where you are going to want to give the rookie, or whomever covers Adams, safety help all game long. And we all know that opens up opportunities for the other receivers in single coverage, situations Rodgers is more than capable of exploiting.

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Robert Tonyan Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (DraftKings Sportsbook -125)

Robert Tonyan’s touchdown reception last week got a lot of airplay, as it was a perfectly threaded pass down the seam from Aaron Rodgers. However, Tonyan won’t be facing the Detroit defense this time, instead facing off against the 49ers’ 14th-ranked passing yardage defense.

The Niners held a quality tight end duo of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to just three catches on four targets and 30 yards last week, with neither catching a ball for more than 14 yards.

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Tonyan has only received seven targets this season, catching five of them, and managed just two for eight yards in the season opener. In 2020, when he faced this San Francisco team, he managed just one catch on one target for five yards, his lowest tally in all three categories in the 17 games he played during the season. The Green Bay tight end also failed to top a 17-yard longest catch in over half of his regular season games last year.

Last season, the San Francisco 49ers were easily the league’s toughest against tight ends. They allowed just 53 catches, 84 targets, 481 yards, and four touchdowns to tight ends, with each of those first three stats far-and-away league bests. Put differently, opposing teams only completed 3.3 passes on 5.25 attempts to tight ends for an average of 30.1 yards per game.

It’s hard to imagine Tonyan breaking through for a long catch on such limited opportunities against this group that allowed just 9.1 yards per catch to tight ends in 2020.

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Mason Crosby Over 1.5 Made Field Goals (DraftKings Sportsbook -135)

Both teams face their highest posted total of the season thus far (currently 50.5), despite holding their Week 2 opponents to a combined 28 points. Oddsmakers believe there are points to be had in this one and Aaron Rodgers will surely have some ideas after watching Jared Goff go up and down the field on this Niners defense in Week 1.

However, San Fran has proven to be a bend-don’t-break defense in recent seasons and has enough stars up front to make drive-killing plays a few times in this game. The 49ers boasted the NFL’s eighth best opponent red zone touchdown percentage in 2020 (57.78%), meaning they were stalling drives in the final stanza at a tremendous rate. As a result, opponents attempted the sixth most field goals per game against the 2020 Niners (2.3).

Mason Crosby is a reliable kicker with limitless range. He did not miss a single field goal last season and is fourth in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made and 50+ yard field goal percentage since 2007. He made two field goals in each of the Packers’ playoff games last season and began 2020 with three straight games of multiple made field goals.

Crosby also made two field goals when he faced the 49ers last season. He’s a guy who is going to convert the chances he is given and has earned the nod from his coaches when considering long attempts. With our expectation that San Fran can slow down a few of Rodgers’ drives, Crosby should get at least two field goal opportunities and we fully expect him to make them both.

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