The PGA Tour is returning to the Baltimore area for the first time in 59 years this week. Caves Valley Golf Club has in recent years hosted the NCAA Championships (men’s and women’s) and a United States Senior Open. Now, Caves Valley will test the world’s best in the BMW Championship.
Let’s take a look at how to bet the BMW Championship with a deep dive into the top picks and best bets.
It’s week two of the FedExCup Playoffs, which means a limited field of 69 players – all of whom will take home some part of the $9.5 million purse because there is no cut at this event. It would have been 70, but Patrick Reed withdrew from the event after contracting bilateral pneumonia and ending up in the hospital. Get well soon, Patrick.
BMW Championship Picks and Best Bets
We are working without one of our primary tools this week. Ordinarily, we can look back at prior performances at a particular golf course to see how specific players performed there. No such luck this week. As such, except for the long shot selection, these picks are going to be a little chalky. This might be a good week to tread carefully.
Let’s see where the value lies as we dive headfirst into our picks and predictions for the BMW Championship.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 25, 2021
VALUE PICK: JON RAHM TOP 5 (+130)
Jon Rahm is the number one player in the world according to the Official World Golf Ranking. It is not hard to see why. Rahm won the United States Open in June, finished tied for third at the Open Championship in July and seemed to be strolling to victory last week at the Northern Trust until a few loose swings on the back nine on Monday left him in third place.
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If all of that wasn’t enough, Rahm won this event last year in a playoff over Dustin Johnson. At that time, it felt like Rahm and DJ would be engaged in that sort of man-to-man competition for the foreseeable future. It didn’t quite work out that way; Rahm has held up his end of the bargain, but Johnson (though still second in the OWGR) has had, for him anyway, a pretty disappointing 2021.
|VALUE PICK: JON RAHM TOP 5 (+130)|
|LONG SHOT PICK: HARRY HIGGS TOP 20 (+700)|
|PICK TO WIN THE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP: LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN (+2500)|
As such, Rahm’s odds this week are very stingy. He’s +550 to win the tournament. Nobody else in the field is lower than +1600 to win. So this value pick is in the vein of “pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered.” Rahm might win this tournament, he might not, but it’s difficult to envision him not finishing at or near the top of the leaderboard this weekend.
Joel Dahmen made 8 birdies during his Tuesday match with Phil Mickelson vs. Harry Higgs-Keith Mitchell. He’s added 3 more thru 6 on Day 1. Seems Lefty knows how to pick a partner.
— Rex Hoggard (@RexHoggardGC) August 19, 2021
LONG SHOT PICK: HARRY HIGGS TOP 20 (+700)
Harry Higgs is definitely living his best life these days. Higgs did do one ill-advised thing recently. He agreed to play a money match with Keith Mitchell against Phil Mickelson and Joel Dahmen. This was basically like trying to fight a land war in Asia. Never play golf against Phil Mickelson for his own money. That’s lunacy. Mickelson live-tweeted the whole match, and though it seemed for the most part that Dahmen carried Mickelson, that didn’t save Higgs from paying out.
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That adverse result aside, Higgs is playing good golf right now at a very opportune time. After missing four straight cuts in June and July, Higgs has posted top 20 finishes the past two weeks at the Wyndham Championship and the Northern Trust. He is hot right now, and at these odds he’s too hot to pass up.
Featured groups for this week's @BMWChamps:
🏌️♂️ Jordan Spieth
🏌️♂️ Harris English
🏌️♂️ Bryson DeChambeau
⛳ Patrick Cantlay
⛳ Justin Thomas
⛳ Collin Morikawa
🏌️♂️ Abraham Ancer
🏌️♂️ Louis Oosthuizen
🏌️♂️ Sam Burns
⛳ Tony Finau
⛳ Jon Rahm
⛳ Cameron Smith
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 24, 2021
PICK TO WIN THE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP: LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN (+2500)
We cashed on Oosthuizen at the Open in July when his top five finish paid out at five to one. At that time, the rationale was that while Oosthuizen has had a terrible time closing at major championships, he always seems to be right there at the end of them with a chance to win. Nothing has changed. Oosthuizen is the same player now who finished in the top five in the past three major championships. Ten of his last twelve rounds were below 70.
On form, Oosthuizen is the best player in the world not named Jon Rahm, and the BMW Championship, while a lucrative event, is not a major championship. Getting Oosthuizen at odds this long feels like a gift.
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