The Atlanta Hawks are on a downslide after taking Game 1 over the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals. Injuries finally seem to be catching up to the Hawks as the Bucks get stronger as the playoffs go on. Game 4 is going to be a battle between two desperate teams.
Oddsmakers have the Bucks as significant favorites over the hobbled Hawks ahead of Game 4, but let’s turn our attention to our best player prop bet pick between these two teams.
Bucks vs. Hawks Game 4 Player Prop Pick
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 31.5 Points (-122, FanDuel)
Giannis Antetokounmpo always seems to catch flack in the playoffs because he isn’t a shooter who isolates at the end of games. The fact that he might defer to Khris Middleton in the final two minutes of the game shouldn’t diminish what he did for the previous 48. Antetokounmpo is putting up absurd numbers in these playoffs.
He’s averaging 29.2 points per game in the playoffs, but that number jumps up to 32.9 when you look at his last eight games. In this series alone, Antetokounmpo has eclipsed the 32-point mark twice. He fell short in Game 2, but only because he played under 30 minutes in that game. The Bucks smacked the Hawks by 34 points. So long as Game 4 isn’t a complete blowout, Giannis should be able to hit 32 points or more.
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Trae Young Under 28.5 Points (-125, BetMGM)
Betting against Trae Young has been a risky proposition all playoffs long, but this is a bit different. Young is banged up after sustaining an ankle injury in Game 3. Furthermore, the Bucks have done an excellent job at turning him into a shooter, rather than a slasher. Young is far less effective when teams are blocking him off from the paint.
Even though Young went off for 35 points in Game 3 and 48 points in Game 1, we feel like the injuries and the grind of the playoffs are finally starting to catch up with him.
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Khris Middleton Under 2.5 Three-Pointers (+102, DraftKings)
Why are we betting against Khris Middleton? He is coming off of a playoff career-high in which he scored 38 points and drilled six three-pointers. Atlanta had no answer for him, especially towards the end of the game. Again, that begs the question, what sane person would bet against Middleton?
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In fact, this is the perfect time to bet against Middleton. The playoffs are all about adjustments and Hawks coach Nate McMillan has done a masterful job up to this point. Middleton will still score his points, but expect Atlanta to try and run him off the three-point line. He made a combined two triples in Games 1 and 2 of this series. Grab the plus-money on this Middleton under.