bucks nets game 7 betting prediction

Making a Game 7 prediction between the Bucks and Nets is no easy task given just how much of a roller coaster ride this series has been. But tonight, these two teams will clash for one last time with a trip the Eastern Conference finals on the line. Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers have put these two teams on the board with a short spread, meaning they essentially view the game as a toss up.

Let’s size up the current odds, matchups, and trends before making our Bucks vs. Nets Game 7 prediction and best bets.

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Home court has ruled the day in the first six games of this Nets-Bucks series as the scene shifts once more to the Barclays Center for Game 7 Saturday evening. With their backs to the wall, the Bucks staved off elimination with a 104-89 victory in Game 6 on their home court, behind Khris Middleton’s 38 points and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 30-point effort.

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Bucks vs. Nets Game 7 Prediction

Kyrie Irving was missing once again in Game 6 and will be out for the deciding series finale tonight. James Harden has obvious limitations due to rushing back from a hamstring injury. This leaves much of the burden in the lap of Kevin Durant, who has posted 81 points, 28 rebounds, and 13 assists combined in the last two games. It remains to be seen if Durant can dig deep enough to post another star performance after getting just eight minutes of rest combined in Games 5 and 6.

The series has not produced a single game which has gone over the posted total thus far. Game 1 closed with a total of 239.5 and each game since has decreased a bit more from the game prior.

After Game 6’s closing number of 220.5 for a game that only garnered 193 total points, oddsmakers have dropped Saturday’s Game 7 total all the way down to 215. Four of the last five games in this series have produced less than even that low number. Will Game 7, with all of its obvious implications, be the same?

Bucks vs. Nets Odds (June 19, 2021)

Here is the current line on Nets vs. Bucks Game 7 at DraftKings Sportsbook:

CLIPPERS+5 (-110)+165O 224 (-113)
SUNS-5 (-110)-200U 224 (-109)

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Game 7 Pick

In such a monumental Game 7 between two teams that still have aspirations of winning it all, there seems no other way than to play this than the same way the rest of the series has played out thus far.

Oddsmakers came into this series assuming the top two scoring offenses in the league would pick up right where they left off and produce high-scoring games in this series. Game 1 had a total set near 240, in fact. Here we are, six games later, and not a single game in the series has gone over the total.

Play the Current Run

Oddsmakers have, of course, adjusted accordingly, lowering the posted number a bit each game and now we find ourselves with a frighteningly low number to look at for under bettors, currently sitting at 215 at most legal books. However, the proof is in the pudding here and we need not be afraid of this low number because this series and the history of the league have dictated that this game tonight stands to be yet another tight and low one between these two underrated defenses.

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These two offenses garner a lot of attention because of their high-scoring natures in the regular season and the star power each possesses, but what consistently gets overlooked is how excellent each team is defensively. Remember, Milwaukee is the league’s fifth best field goal percentage defense, while Brooklyn checks in at seventh best.

What’s more, the Bucks have the league’s third best overall rebounding rate, including the top defensive rebounding rate, minimizing the second chance points for a Nets teams that is likely to need them, being essentially a one-man show out there.

That brings us to another point worth mentioning. With Durant as the sole focal point of almost every offensive possession for Brooklyn, due to lack of other healthy, consistent scoring options, it is going to take the Nets considerable shot clock time each trip in order to generate a good look.

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With the Bucks scooping up over 80% of the defensive rebounds all season long, there could be a lot of empty trips for Brooklyn, amplifying the importance of the Nets’ own tight defense on the other end.

All of this is perfect to help continue a low-scoring series.

Yes, 215 total points is a scary number in and of itself. It was generally reserved during the regular season for the Knicks and one or two other teams in certain matchup spots. Now, we see it tossed out there between the league’s two highest scoring teams. However, don’t let the number itself blind you to the fact that four of the previous six games in this series have stayed under 215.

Potent Offenses Have Been Struggling

Beyond the extra defensive intensity of a Game 7 in the Playoffs, we have two teams who are just struggling as a whole offensively.

For Brooklyn, their struggles center around lack of scoring options outside of Durant with Kyrie out and Harden greatly limited. The Bucks have several All-NBA caliber defenders and are able to stifle the role players to great effect.

For Milwaukee, they just seem devoid of offensive ideas out there. If Middleton isn’t creating in the mid-range and Giannis isn’t developing a head of steam to get into the lane, they don’t really have much chance of getting easy buckets. Brooklyn has had an impressive defensive approach against the Bucks for the most part in this series and it is unlikely Milwaukee will be able to reinvent the wheel enough to remedy their woes fully before tonight.

Bucks vs. Nets Betting Trends

Best Bets
Bobby Portis Under 16.5 Points (-106, FanDuel)
Khris Middleton Over 27.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 3.5 Threes (-120, DraftKings)

Betting Prediction

Ignore the number and trust what is right in front of your face tonight. These two have not played a game over the total even once in this series, nor in either of the last two head-to-head regular season meetings.

Just one of the last five meetings here in Brooklyn between the two has gone over. With the two teams struggling offensively and knowing each other so well at this point, we should be destined for another low-scoring war tonight, reminiscent of the Hawks and Sixers last night.

You can play good basketball without scoring a ton of points and this league’s playoff history has centered around that truth.

Our Pick: UNDER 215 POINTS

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Bob Wankel is a credentialed Phillies writer for Crossing Broad. He is also Vice President of Sports Betting Content at XL Media and co-hosts Crossed Up: A Phillies Podcast. A South Jersey resident and graduate of Monmouth University, his past work includes 12+ years in education and six seasons as a freelancer at NFL Films. On Twitter: @Bob_Wankel E-mail: bob.w@xlmedia.com