The Sixers and Hawks will go at it in Game 4 tonight with Philly looking to take a commanding 3-1 lead, but we expect the Hawks to get out to a fast start.
While oddsmakers have the Sixers as a short favorite, we’ve identified a player prop pick at long odds that provides a substantial payout.
Will Atlanta win this one? It’s hard to say, but we’re banking that they get out fast tonight.
Sixers vs. Hawks Game 4 Prop Pick
Atlanta Hawks +1 (HT Line) and Trae Young 11+ Assists (PointsBet +240)
This feels like incredible value for two components that seem utterly feasible tonight based on game situation and style of play in this series. For starters, with the Hawks down 2-1 in the series, but on their home court where they have been so good for so long, you would have to imagine this is the perfect spot for them to come out focused and fired up from the opening tip.
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The Hawks could also catch Philly on its heels a bit. After going down 0-1 in the series, the Sixers’ internal dialogue had to be centered around getting back home for Game 5 at 2-2. The wins in Game 2 and Game 3 have made that a worst case scenario now, giving them their home court advantage back in the series and leaving them playing with a bit of house money here tonight.
Couple that potential subconscious comfort with a feeling out period that might come with the new starting lineup for Philly necessitated by the Green injury and one could understand a potential sluggish start from the East’s top seed here tonight. After all, Coach Nate MacMillan and his team have had two full days to figure out ways to get Trae Young free from Ben Simmons’ clutches and the 76ers might need time of their own to adjust in-game.
In a game the Hawks absolutely must have, asking them to be tied or lead at the half seems like a fair ask, given the situations at-hand.
With regards to Trae Young’s assist total, if Philly continues to harry the star guard with Simmons, who holds roughly a nine inch height advantage, Young will likely have to find other ways to contribute effectively, knowing that his team typically goes as he goes.
Luckily, we are not asking Young to do anything completely outside of his wheelhouse. Yes, this is a guy who averaged 25.3 points per game in the regular season, a number he has increased to 28.8 this postseason, but that hasn’t precluded him from being an assist machine, as well. The ball is in his hands so often on offense and now he is playing 37 minutes a game, so his scoring prowess does not have to preclude his ability to dish out assists, too.
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Young averaged 9.4 assists per game during the regular season and, despite his increased scoring in the Playoffs, he has also bumped up his assists, as well, handing out 9.8 dimes per game. He has tallied at least eight assists in all eight postseason games, reaching double digits in half of those and notching the 11+ needed here twice already.
Young notched our necessary 11 assists or more 23 times in 63 regular season games (36.5%). He also had another five games with ten assists in that span. In a critical game for this Atlanta team and after two days off, we should expect to see Young on the court for an exorbitant number of minutes. And we know he has the shooters on his team to finish the open looks he creates for them.
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