palmetto championship odds pick prediction
May 23, 2021; Kiawah Island, South Carolina, USA; Brooks Koepka watches his tee shot on the 9th hole during the final round of the PGA Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Picking winners is tough enough when you can be confident that, say, the guy who is beating the field by six shots and cruising to victory will actually finish the tournament. After Jon Rahm’s mandated withdrawal from the Memorial Tournament last weekend, though, we are all the way down the rabbit hole with questions. Questions like, how is (name a player) not vaccinated yet? Or, does Patrick Cantlay’s career win total need an asterisk after he “won” last week? I’ll answer that one: Yes, yes it does.

Let’s see where the value lies as we dive headfirst into our picks and predictions for the Palmetto Championship at Congaree in Ridgeland, South Carolina.

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Palmetto Championship Betting Pick

I wish I could tell you that it’s not going to get worse before it gets better, but I’ve never lied to you and I won’t start now. Yes, the U.S. Open is set to tee off in two weeks at Torrey Pines, and that is going to be special. In the interim, though, we have another non-descript field set to compete at something called the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. This is happening because the Canadian Open was cancelled for the second straight year due to the pandemic. What a debacle.

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We are making picks this week because why not, but the real watchword this week is “caution.” Just because they post odds doesn’t mean you have to go deep on the likes of Lucas Glover or Garrick Higgo, especially when the Tour is going to a golf course for the first time. 

VALUE PICK:  PATTON KIZZIRE TOP 30 (+110)

Patton Kizzire missed the cut at the Memorial last week, but in the prior two weeks he finished third alone at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial and third alone at the AT&T Byron Nelson Challenge at TPC at Craig Ranch.

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He also posted a ninth-place finish at the Valero Texas Open in April. Kizzire is not a household name and at 35 years of age he is not an emerging star, either. But Kizzire is a reliable money maker on the Tour. From September 24, 2020 forward, Kizzire has made 20 starts and made 17 cuts. Against an iffy field, Kizzire seems like a safe bet to post a top-30 since he’s -250 to make the cut. 

LONG SHOT PICK: DUSTIN JOHNSON TO MISS THE CUT (+500)

I have no explanation for all of the weight being thrown on Dustin Johnson this week. He is the tournament favorite at +775 and he is +100 to finish in the top ten. This strikes me as a situation where people see the name, know that the field around him isn’t very good, know that the U.S. Open is next week and decide that Johnson is just going to turn it on.

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Here’s some news for those people: DJ didn’t play at the Memorial last week, and he missed the cut at the PGA Championship three weeks ago (and at the 2021 Masters before that). The U.S. Open is going to be played about 2300 miles away from this week’s venue. If Johnson gets off to a slow start, there’s nothing keeping him from screwing around, missing the weekend and getting to Torrey Pines a couple of days early.

PICK TO WIN THE PALMETTO CHAMPIONSHIP AT CONGAREE: BROOKS KOEPKA (+850)

Brooks Koepka should for the most part be able to focus on his golf without hearing or talking much about pseudo-rival Bryson DeChambeau, who is not in the field this week. Koepka is not a thrilling pick at these odds, but then we’re trying to pick a winner and the field isn’t exactly brimming with guys playing well or coming off recent wins – all of those guys are already in La Jolla getting ready for the U.S. Open. Koepka won in Scottsdale in February, finished second at The Concession three weeks later, and famously sort of kicked away the PGA Championship to Phil Mickelson three weeks ago but still finished second. 

Will Koepka win this tournament? The odds say probably not, and it’s as likely as anything that some journeyman will catch a hot putter this week and steal a win. With the U.S. Open around the corner, this might be a good week to conserve some bankroll and make your wagers light.

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