The Luke Doncic show heads home to Dallas tonight for a series clinching opportunity for the host Mavericks against the favored Los Angeles Clippers. Doncic poured in 42 points at the Staples Center in a 105-100 Game 5 victory, helping his Mavs to a 3-2 series lead. The win continued the streak of the road team winning every game thus far in this series.
Let’s take a closer look at the best wagering markets with our Clippers vs. Mavericks Game 6 betting pick, complete with the best odds, prop predictions, and analysis.
Clippers vs. Mavericks Betting Game 6 Pick
The Clippers enter play tonight as favorites once again, meaning that, with a loss, they would become just the second team in NBA history to lose a best-of-seven series in which they were favored in every game. Los Angeles will surely lean on Kawhi Leonard, who has proven himself in big elimination games throughout his career.
Despite 63 first quarter points in Game 5, the game finished with just 205 total points, well under the posted total for the second game in a row. Tonight’s number is currently the second lowest in the series where each game has had totals set between 216 and 220 points.
We have identified a couple wagering options we believe provide excellent value for bettors in tonight’s important matchup.
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Clippers vs. Mavericks Game Odds
Here are the current odds for Clippers vs. Mavericks at DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Clippers||-3 (-112)||-143||O 216.5 (-112)|
|Mavericks||+3 (-109)||+123||U 216.5 (-109)|
Bets We Like With a Clippers Win
Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 AND Over 218.5 Total Points (FanDuel Sportsbook +500)
What a fantastic return here! We will give more support for a Clippers cover in the next section, but right now will begin by offering some defense of the bumped up spread offered here. If you like Los Angeles to win this game, you can feel pretty confident that they will also cover this inflated 4.5 point line.
For starters, this is the league’s top three-point field goal percentage and top free throw percentage team. Nothing ices a game and mid-single digits spread late quite like a team that is reliable both from deep and from the foul line. And, the cincher is the fact that they also defend the three-point line better than all but five teams in the NBA.
So, when the Clippers have that late three, four, or five point lead and their opponents start fouling to extend the game, they’re making nearly 84% of their free throws. Then they smother their foes around the arc at the other end as they try to hit from long range to narrow the ever-growing margin. And, they’ll be facing a Mavericks team that is just 18th best in the league from deep and will likely just try to go through Doncic at that point, who will likely have Paul George or Leonard in his grill.
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Don’t just take our word for it either. Look at the Clippers’ results this season. Each of their last eight wins have come by five or more points. Go back further and you find that 25 of the team’s last 27 victories came by that magic number of five or better. In fact 44 of the team’s 49 wins on the season came by enough points to cover this prop’s spread. Wow! Put differently, Los Angeles has just three wins by less than five points as road favorites all season long.
The Mavericks aren’t ones for nail-biter games either. Since the opening game of the season, they have lost just five games decided by five points or less. Only one of those games was as a home dog, to boot.
In the head-to-head between these two, close games are rare, as well. They have played ten straight games decided by five or more points against each other, as well as 14 of the last 15.
Tight Game Could Push The Total Over Late
With regards to the inflated total here, we believe a crucial game for both teams will induce a game that sees both teams give it their all until the final buzzer. Again, for this prop, we are running off of the premise that the Clippers are going to win and, if they do, a highly contested game should mean we see those late clock stoppages for foul shots and other quick points that can sometimes push even a dead-red under game over the total in the dying breaths.
While just two of the five games in this series have gone over the total thus far, Game 5 started out like gangbusters and Game 1 missed cashing the over by just 1.5 points. Further, both of these teams have a tendency to play relatively high-scoring games in the first round of the Playoffs. The two combine to have played 15 of their last 20 Conference Quarterfinal games over the number.
Dallas finished the regular season with five straight games that sailed over the number, all of which topped tonight’s posted number, as well. The Mavs also played 24 of their 44 games over after a win this season (54.5%), which is a respectable number given that the over cashed in just 46.8% of their games overall. It becomes even more worthwhile for us here when you realize they have played each of their last six games after a straight up win and each of their last five after an ATS win over the total.
With the Clippers knowing it’s do-or-die tonight and Dallas playing its final home game of the series, this one should be a full 48 (or more) minute(s) contest. Expect to see Dallas’ tenth game fly over the total in its last 13 tries as Playoff dogs.
Clippers vs. Mavericks Betting Prediction
The talking heads in the media have been all over the map regarding this series. Luke is unstoppable. Then Luka is hurt and the Mavericks are toast. And then Ty Lue is coaching for his job and the Clippers are forever doomed in the Playoffs. However, when you get down to brass tacks, the fact of the matter is, the road team has won and covered all five games in this series. If you buy into that as meaningful, then who better to get behind than the Clippers, a team that still has the same depth and star power it did last season when they were many people’s picks to win it all?
We already discussed how unlikely it is that, if the Clippers do win, they do so by less than this tiny spread. Just one of their 11 career Playoff meetings (all played in the last 12 months) between the two was decided by two points or less. And you have to go back 15 regular season head-to-head meetings to find one decided by two or fewer points. So, probabilistically, we are just asking the Clippers to win here and the cover will come tagging along.
Well, that’s not a bad situation to be in, as the Clippers were one of the league’s best road teams this season at 23-15 straight up. Oddly, the Mavericks were a better team away from home this year at 24-15 than they were here at the American Airlines Center (21-17). As such, Dallas was just a 15-23 ATS cover team at home, as well. In fact, the Mavs were just 10-14 ATS at home after a win and face a Clippers group that was 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS on the road after a loss.
The Clippers have covered four of their last five games on one day of rest and are facing a Mavs team that has failed to cover any of its last four on that same rest. The Clippers have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 head-to-head meetings here in Dallas, too. Entering this series, the Mavericks had also failed to cover nine of their last 11 as playoff dogs and 10 of their last 12 First Round games.
Look for tonight to be Dallas’ fifth failed cover in their last six games after a straight up win, as Adam Silver and oddsmakers finally get the Game 7 they crave.
Our Pick: Los Angeles -3
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