Oregon State’s surprise run that began in the Pac-12 Tournament continues against Houston on Monday night. The Beavers came out of nowhere to make their mark on the NCAA Tournament this year. Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars are looking to put an end to this Cinderella run.
Let’s take at this Oregon State vs. Arkansas matchup with an emphasis on the odds, analysis, and betting pick for this Elite Eight game.
Oregon State vs. Houston Betting Pick
Favorites like Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan have been the focus of March Madness so far, but don’t sleep on Houston. The Cougars have answered the bell in each and every game so far. Oregon State will be the fourth consecutive double-digit seed that Houston faces. The Beavers have knocked off Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Loyola-Chicago as underdogs up to this point.
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Oregon State vs. Houston Odds
Here are the latest odds on Oregon State vs. Houston at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Oregon State +7.5 (-114) // +255 // O 129 (-110)
Houston -7.5 (-106) // -345 // U 129 (-109)
Houston has been upset-proof during the NCAA Tournament. After destroying Cleveland State in the opening round, the Cougars barely escaped No. 10 Rutgers in the second round, but bounced back by obliterating a red-hot Syracuse team in the Sweet 16. Can they end Oregon State’s run like they did to the Orange?
The Cougars have covered two of their three NCAA Tournament games thus far. Obviously, Oregon State has not only covered in all three of its games, but it won outright as a significant underdog in all three — this continues a trend in which the Beavers have won 9 of 10 games — all of which came as an underdog of at least five points.
Oregon State has brought a specific brand of basketball to Indianapolis and it’s working for them. They are happy to slow the game down and grind it out, but Houston will have no problem playing this same kind of game. The Cougars have held their last two opponents to 46 and 60 points, respectively. It’s no surprise to see the over-under set at 129 points.
Why Oregon State Can Cover The Spread
Oregon State is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. This run for the Beavers started with Pac-12 Tournament wins over UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado, but the Beavers weren’t done there.
Wayne Tinkle’s squad has been magnificent as an underdog against the spread this year. They have covered in 16 of their last 21 games when they were getting points and they are 15-3 ATS when getting between 5-12 points. In short, this game is lining up perfectly for Oregon State bettors.
Houston is no joke, but the Beavers have shown that they can hang around with anyone in the NCAA Tournament. If they can continue to play stout defense, they should be able to keep this one within seven points.
Why Houston Can Cover The Spread
There is some potential for Houston to fall into the dreaded “trap” of playing a lower seed, but we don’t know if that’s going to be the case on Monday. The Cougars have already played three double-digit seeds and there’s no looking ahead once you make it to the Elite Eight.
Houston has been excellent against the spread this year. They are 20-9 ATS, but they are only 4-4 ATS when laying between 5-12 points. This would seemingly give Oregon State the advantage on the spread line, but don’t count out the Cougars just yet.
Oregon State might be one of the hottest teams in the country, but Houston’s current winning streak started long before Oregon State was in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
Houston has won 10 in a row and seven of those wins have come by double-digits. When the Cougars win, they generally win big.
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Oregon State vs. Houston Prediction
This is no easy game to forecast, but we feel like sticking with Oregon State is the move.
They have proven that they can play with anybody in the country at this point and we expect this game to come down to the final few minutes. There is some value on Oregon State on the moneyline, but the safe play is to take the Beavers getting the points.
Pick: Oregon State +7.5
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