ORCHARD PARK, NY - DECEMBER 29: Sam Darnold #14 of the New York Jets looks to throw a pass as Trent Murphy #93 of the Buffalo Bills dives to try and make a tackle during the first half at New Era Field on December 29, 2019 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

We have a game only a bettor could love between the Jets and Bills this week, so let’s get right to the odds, along with our picks and predictions.

At 0-6, the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in a divisional matchup this Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium. Simply speaking, not many believe the Jets will be able to win this game, regardless of who’s playing quarterback. Sam Darnold is dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered in the Week 4 loss to the Broncos but is reportedly expected to return to the starting lineup this Sunday.

This isn’t exactly a winnable matchup for the Jets though, to say the least. Buffalo is coming off two consecutive defeats but possesses the upper-hand in all areas of the game, which is why I believe they’ll ultimately cover the spread in this one.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jets are 11.5-point underdogs and +400 on the moneyline in comparison to the Bills’ -530. The total is currently over-under 46.0.

Jets vs. Bills Betting: Why the Bills on the spread?

It’s definitely a wide spread, there’s no doubt about that. But given the putrid state the Jets are in, with head coach Adam Gase potentially out the door at any second, I don’t think there’s a chance they come within 11.5 points of their division rivals.

The Bills are coming off two consecutive losses and quarterback Josh Allen hasn’t exactly played up to standards as of late. Nonetheless, the perfect opportunity for a bounce-back game is approaching, and Buffalo should be able to pounce on it and ultimately get the job done.

Defending the Jets offense shouldn’t be much of an issue even if Darnold is playing. Gase, once said to have a “brilliant offensive mind,” has proven to be an incompetent play-caller who can’t figure out how to consistently find success on that side of the ball. The Bills defense isn’t as productive as it was last year, but that shouldn’t make much of a difference, considering the Jets are last in scoring, last in passing, and second-to-last in total offense.

The Jets defense shouldn’t be difficult to overcome either, considering the Gregg Williams-led unit is 20th in total yards allowed per game (378.8) and 29th in points allowed per game (30.8).

Abiding by the aforementioned statistics, the Bills shouldn’t experience any problems defeating the Jets by at least two touchdowns. To be honest, I’m surprised the spread isn’t even wider than 11.5.

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Bills Moneyline, Book it

It may seem like a massive risk to put money on the Bills moneyline, given it’s currently a $530 bet to earn a profit of $100. But in reality, this isn’t that risky at all, considering the Bills are just that much more talented than the Jets right now.

When looking at the schedule, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a game the Jets will actually emerge victorious in this year. And if there is indeed a game that could lead to that outcome, it’s certainly not against Buffalo.

This Bills team will be fired up after two consecutive losses and should come out firing on all cylinders, which should overwhelm the Jets from the get-go. The Jets may find a successful drive here and there, but it ultimately won’t be enough against the Sean McDermott-led opposition.

Ultimately, on Sunday, the Jets will be one step closer to drafting Trevor Lawrence. You heard it here: there’s no shot they win this game. Obviously, at this price, it might be a good idea to simply roll the moneyline into a parlay.

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Jets vs. Bills PickHammer the Under at All Costs

The total points mark of 46.0 is fairly low but reasonable, considering these two offenses aren’t spectacular. And if I were you, I’d definitely hammer the under.

The Jets are currently putting up a disastrous 12.5 points per game, which sits as the league’s worst mark. Even though Darnold may play, that still won’t make much of a difference. Through the first four games — Darnold started each — the Jets averaged just 16.3 points per game.

Buffalo, on the other hand, isn’t the best on the scoring front either. The Bills find themselves in the bottom half of the league in those regards, scoring 26.0 points per game (17th in the NFL).

Considering the Jets’ scoring woes, the Bills may need to put up 30-35 points in this game for the over to hit, and I simply don’t see that occurring.

Jets vs. Bills Prediction

Give me the Bills to win outright, the Bills to cover, and the under. The Jets lose in disastrous fashion to drop to 0-7.

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Ryan Honey is a staff writer and host of the Wide Right Podcast.