The Giants are 0-4 ahead of their Week 5 matchup and first in-division game of the new season. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 1-3 after a tough 49-38 loss at the hands of the Browns.
Let’s take a look at how the odds stack up for Giants vs. Cowboys.
This Giants vs. Cowboys betting preview features odds, picks, and predictions.
Preview
At the moment, it’s very much unclear when the Giants will notch their first victory of the season.
Some thought it could’ve been against the Bears, a team led by the inconsistent Mitch Trubisky.
Some thought it could’ve been against the 49ers, who were starting a number of backups across the board amid multiple injury-related absences.
But here we are, approaching Week 5, and the Giants are still winless at 0-4. Not to mention, the offensive woes continue for Big Blue. The Giants are last in the NFL in scoring, tied for last in total offense, and 31st in rushing.
The offensive line isn’t great yet, but continues to build the necessary chemistry. The unit will be going up against a DeMarcus Lawrence-led squad that actually hasn’t performed all too well in 2020 (eight sacks total).
This Giants defense impressed in the most recent loss to the Rams though, allowing just 240 yards of offense and 17 points. The Giants are now 5th in total defense and sixth in pass defense.
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Nonetheless, the Cowboys have struggled mightily thus far as well, with their only victory coming after their infamous onside-kick recovery in Week 2 against the Falcons.
While the Cowboys defense is 30th in total yards allowed per game and last in scoring, Dallas’ offense should be a good match for the mostly successful Giants defense. The Cowboys lead the league in total offense, passing, and are third in scoring.
Giants vs. Cowboys odds
Despite the struggles in and around the Cowboys, oddsmakers still don’t like the Giants in this one.
Right now, the Cowboys are favored to win the matchup at -9.5. Given how strong the Giants defense was on Sunday, I’m not sure if I exactly see it getting that out of hand from a bettor’s standpoint, but at the same time, the Giants have had significant issues in recent years when facing the Cowboys.
New York hasn’t defeated its heated rivals since 2016, coming up short in each of the last six meetings. Oddsmakers understand that, which is likely why the spread is what it is.
The Cowboys are also favored heavily on the moneyline, sitting at -400 while the Giants are at +360. Regardless of the spread, the Cowboys surely possess a better chance at winning this game, so this somewhat makes sense.
But then again, taking the Giants on the moneyline could be a move to make. Sure, the Giants are arguably the worst team in the league, but they proved to have some sort of fight in them when they only lost by eight to the Rams on Sunday. If the Giants defense can just contain Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and the Cowboys offense, Big Blue’s offense may only need to make a few big plays (which, I guess, might be asking a lot).
It’s also only $100 to win $360, so it’s not as big of a risk as putting down $400 to win $100.
All I’m saying is that it could be a decent move to take the Giants moneyline, I’m not saying they’ll 100% snag the victory. Don’t forget, the Cowboys aren’t all that great either.
The total points mark is set at 54.5, and I actually would take the under here. I can’t see this Giants offense scoring noteworthy points, and the Cowboys’ scoring attack may not be as dominant as usual when facing a productive Giants defense.
Win Probability
FiveThirtyEight‘s ELO model suggests the Giants possess a 22% chance at winning this ballgame in comparison to the Cowboys’ 78%. This is the second-lowest probability the Giants have had in 2020, with the lowest coming for last week’s game against the Rams (19%).
Obviously, this is a massive difference in probability, which is concerning for the Giants considering the issues the Cowboys are dealing with thus far in 2020.
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CLAIM OFFER!How to watch/listen to Giants-Cowboys
Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
TV: CBS
Radio: WFAN 660AM/101.9FM (New York), KRLD-FM 105.3FM (Dallas)
Why take the Giants?
The Giants defense carries momentum from its Week 4 performance against the Rams’ Sean McVay-led offense, which could prove to be a huge benefit when facing the Cowboys. As was previously mentioned, if Big Blue’s defensive unit can just contain the high-scoring Cowboys, not much will need to be done on the offensive side of the ball. This could all lead to a Giants victory or them at least covering the 9.5-point spread.
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Stopping the run will be key, and a tough task at that given the Giants are facing superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott. Stacking the box and utilizing the correct personnel should give the Giants the advantage in that area of the field.
All in all, this Cowboys team isn’t that great. It contains flaws, and the Giants just need to expose them come Sunday in order to cover.
Why take the Cowboys?
Well, the Cowboys’ talent level is just higher, simple as that. They’ve proven that they can legitimately score points while the Giants haven’t found the end zone since Week 2.
It won’t take much for the Cowboys to defeat this putrid Giants team. All they’ll need to do is put together a few long offensive drives in which they utilize the run, tire the Giants defense out, and open up the play-action. If they can do that, they’ll surpass at least 20 points, which would be an extremely tall task to overcome for Daniel Jones and the Giants offense.
Giants vs. Cowboys Betting Prediction
The Giants need to find a rhythm offensively and do it swiftly if they want to gain any sort of relevancy in this weird and unusual 2020 NFL season. Nonetheless, I just don’t see that happening at AT&T Stadium on Sunday, given the difficulties of playing on the road for the second consecutive week and in front of actual fans — rival fans, to be specific.
Although struggling, the Cowboys defense will focus its attention on pressuring Jones, which may ultimately lead to him making a number of mistakes and potentially turning the ball over (again).
Giants vs. Cowboys Pick
This is a tough decision, but I think I’ll take the Cowboys with the spread. The Giants defense will show up for the most part, but it ultimately won’t be enough in the end.
Final Score Prediction: 24-13 Cowboys
