The Jets enter their Week 4 matchup with the Broncos sporting an 0-3 record. With head coach Adam Gase‘s job on the line, let’s see how the odds stack up for the Jets. The Broncos additionally enter this game winless and are without their starting quarterback in Drew Lock. Nonetheless, they’re still favored to oust a hopeless Jets squad.
This Jets-Broncos betting preview features odds, picks, and predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Preview
Both of these teams employ putrid offenses, with the Jets finding themselves as the 32nd-ranked scoring ballclub in the National Football League. The Broncos, on the other hand, are 30th in scoring. Gang Green is additionally last in the league with 263.7 total yards per game while the Broncos are 29th in that same category with 289.3 total yards per game.
Brett Rypien is reportedly expected to start at quarterback for the Broncos. Therefore, this won’t be a quarterback New York’s defense should have any issues with, which would make a loss that much more embarrassing for a Jets squad desperately in need of a victory.
The Jets are coming off another embarrassing defeat, this time at the hands of the Colts in Week 3. Amid three picks from quarterback Sam Darnold — two of which were returned for touchdowns — the Colts emerged victoriously by a score of 36-7.
Darnold has yet to really prove that he’s the answer moving forward, and he actually may be regressing. The third-year quarterback threw for 562 yards, three touchdowns, and four picks through the first three games, having notched a quarterback rating of just 70.7.
While this is one of the least intriguing games of the week, there is an interesting tidbit that comes along with it. If the Jets do come up short against the Colts, there’s a chance Gase could be done come Friday morning. Jets fans have been calling for his job since last year, and an 0-4 start would prove the organization isn’t headed in the right direction with him leading the staff.
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GET THE APPJets vs. Broncos Odds
Despite the fact that the Broncos lost their first three games of the year, the Jets still enter this matchup as 2.5-point underdogs.
Simply speaking, even without their No. 1 quarterback, the Broncos still employ better players than the Jets. The Jets are an injury-riddled bunch with no offensive firepower whatsoever. New York’s defense hasn’t been all that great either, allowing 372.0 total yards per game and 133.0 rushing yards per game. Expect Broncos backs Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay (if he plays) to potentially undergo successful games against a defensive unit that’s relatively struggled defending the run in 2020.
The total-point mark is set at over-39.5 and under-40, a low mark that’s very much reasonable. The Jets offense is horrendous, as was mentioned before, and doesn’t contain any stars or game-changers that could flip the switch at a moment’s notice. It’s put up just 12.3 points per game thus far, and don’t expect the offensive woes to differ much on Thursday night.
The Broncos offense is also underwhelming and there’s only such much Rypien could do. He completed 8 of 9 throws for 53 yards in Week 3, but who knows if that production remains consistent?
The moneyline is currently set at -143 for the Broncos and +126 for the Jets, but I’d put money down on Denver. It’s unclear if the Jets will win any game this year, especially if Gase remains the helm. With that said, I don’t expect them to undergo their best performance on the MetLife Stadium turf coming off a short week this Thursday. Despite Denver’s record thus far, I think taking the Broncos moneyline could be an easy cash grab.
Win Probability
According to FiveThirtyEight‘s ELO model, the Jets actually possess a better chance at emerging victoriously than the Broncos do. The model has given the Jets a 54% chance at a victory in comparison to the Broncos’ 46%.
This is the first time all season the model has given the Jets the edge in win probability. For this past Sunday’s game, it suggested the Jets had a 30% chance at winning in comparison to Indy’s 70%.
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CLAIM OFFER!How to watch/listen to Jets-Broncos?
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 1
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
- TV: NFL Network
- Radio: WEPN 1050AM/98.7FM (New York), KOA NewsRadio 850AM/94.1FM (Denver)
Why take the Jets?
It’s truly difficult to find anything intriguing about the Jets right now. Their coach is on the verge of exiting East Rutherford, their quarterback may be regressing, Le’Veon Bell is hurt, and they don’t have consistent weapons in the passing game. Not to mention, the defensive side of the ball isn’t so fascinating either.
But one thing is certain: they’re absolutely hungry for a victory. Some fans may not be and could possibly want the team to tank and draft a new quarterback, but that’s not the mindset the players will be sporting come Thursday night.
After three consecutive double-digit defeats, the Jets are motivated to come out and win the game or at least make it a close contest, and what better way to do that than at your home stadium on national television?
If the Jets can just establish some sort of run game, take the pressure off of their young quarterback, construct long drives, and ultimately tire this Broncos defense out, they should put points up on the board.
They’ll also need to pressure whoever is playing quarterback for the Broncos, and do it consistently. Any quarterback in the NFL, whether you’re a practice squad guy or Russell Wilson, can complete a pass when pocket time is granted. If Rypien is constantly overwhelmed by this Jets pass rush, mistakes will eventually be made and turnovers will eventually occur. It’s that simple.
It doesn’t need to be that complex of a gameplan for the Jets, which is why they could have a chance to win or at least cover this Thursday.
Why take the Broncos?
Well, this is another team desperate for a win, and one that possesses a better coaching staff led by Vic Fangio. Regardless of the fact that they’re missing their starting quarterback, the Broncos will still be ready for anything the Jets throw at them, even though they’re playing on a short week.
Despite the struggles within this Broncos defense, the Jets don’t employ much offensive talent. This should free up the Broncos to utilize the pass rush and pressure Darnold consistently without needing to worry about a specific back or receiver.
The gameplan for the Broncos on the offensive side of the ball will additionally be similar to the Jets’ gameplan: run the ball. Denver employs two talented backs in Gordon and Lindsay (the latter of which may play Thursday), and if you can utilize both and tire this Jets defense out, it’ll open up the play-action but also take pressure off whoever is playing quarterback.
The Broncos should have the weapons to succeed with that type of gameplan, which is why putting money down on Denver might not be such a bad idea at all.
Jets vs. Broncos Betting Prediction
Taking all of the above information into consideration, the pick here is to go with the Broncos. Simply speaking, I just can’t see the Jets winning a game right now. They haven’t been able to really hang in there with any team they’ve faced, while the Broncos at least have. The Broncos lost by two in Week 1 and then by five in Week 2. I just think putting money down on the Broncos with the spread would be a more reasonable decision than putting money down on the Jets.
Jets vs. Broncos Prediction
It’s a tough choice considering both teams are really struggling right now, but I’m going to take the Broncos -2.5.
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