When executing a Fantasy Baseball 2017 Round 1 Mock Draft, the realizing that Mike Trout is still king hits home with great impact.
While a lot can change between now and the day of your 2017 fantasy baseball draft, it’s never too early to take a look at trends.- This mock is for an imaginary 12 team, 5×5 mixed league.
- The six participants are all New York or New Jersey residents
- Participants have various fantasy experience
- Yahoo rankings were the default used in the mock
The factors above are all important because the type of league you’re in, the site, the site’s default rankings and the participants all play a major role in how a draft will unfold.
In neighborhood or friends & family drafts, regional players are typically drafted way ahead of their ADPs.
Round 1, Pick 1: Mike Trout (OF-LAA)
Mike Trout is the consensus No. 1 pick in every fantasy baseball magazine you’ll look at and every fantasy baseball site on the web. It seems the only time he’s not picked No. 1 overall is when an owner wants a pitcher in the first round and takes Clayton Kershaw instead.
At the ripe old age of 25, the Angels outfielder is entering his seventh big league season. All he’s done in the previous five full seasons is average 33 homers, 116 runs, 96 RBIs and 28 steals while batting over .300.
There is no reason to think Trout will disappoint in 2017. Draft him No. 1 with confidence.
Round 1, Pick 2: Nolan Arenado (3B-COL)
Nolan Arenado is the first of four third baseman selected in the first round of this mock. While the position is stacked, it is also top-heavy and if you’re picking early and you want a stud manning the hot corner for your fantasy team, grabbing Arenado here is not a bad idea.
The reigning NL home run king in 2016, after hitting 41 in 2016, Arenado is also the reigning MLB RBI champ having driven in 133.
A power hitter that calls Coors field home, Arenado is about as safe a first round pick as there is.
Round 1, Pick 3: Jose Altuve (2B-HOU)
Jose Altuve is entering his age 27 season and is coming off a monster year in which he batted .338, hit 24 home runs and stole 30 bases.
The Astros second baseman began 2016 modestly hitting out of his usual leadoff spot. It wasn’t until a blistering June that he became firmly entrenched as Houston’s No. 3 hitter.
A move down the lineup for a full year will cost Altuve some AB’s but the run production that comes from hitting in the middle of a strong Astros lineup should more than make up for it.
The experts like Altuve and expect him to put up numbers similar to 2016 in 2017. Personally, I think second base is crazy deep and expecting another 24 home run season from a 5-foot-7, 170-pound second baseman is a bit optimistic. I like Altuve as a first rounder but No. 3 was a bit too high for my tastes.
Round 1, Pick 4: Kris Bryant (OF-CHC)
Kris Bryant has the tools to be a first-round draft pick in fantasy leagues for the next decade. Since entering the league in 2015 the 6-foot-5 man-child has more than lived up to the expectations that accompany a No. 2 overall amateur draft pick.
A right-handed hitter Bryant hits equally well against righties and southpaws. Bryant was also one of only two players (Betts) in all of baseball with at least 120 runs (121), 30 homers (39) and 100 RBIs (102) in 2016. The scary part is that at only 25 years young there’s still plenty of room for growth.
Depending on your league Bryant can qualify at 3B, OF and maybe even 1B (eight games played). He’s an elite option at any of the positions at which he qualifies.
There is a small downside. Bryant has yet to deliver steals or hit for a high average at the major league level. Even with those resume gaps Bryant’s high floor, possible upside and position eligibility make him a perfectly acceptable early first round pick.
Round 1, Pick 5: Clayton Kershaw (SP-LAD)
If you’re going to take a pitcher in the first round it has to be Dodgers ace, Clayton Kershaw. The consensus best starter in the game hasn’t had an ERA over 2.89 since 2010 or a WHIP over .915 since 2012.
Kershaw struck out 301 batters in 2015 and was on pace for an even better year in 2016. Unfortunately, a back injury in June cost him two months and limited him to 149 IP. Despite the injury, Kershaw is still the best bet to rank as the #1 SP in all of fantasy baseball in 2017.
Pitchers are riskier fantasy investments in general. Drafting a pitcher in the first round can make or break or break your season. While the first round pitcher approach is dangerous, Clayton Kershaw is about as sure a thing as you’re going to find in baseball.
Round 1, Pick 6: Mookie Betts (OF-BOS)
Mookie Betts is a steal here. With a current ADP of 2, according to Fantasy Pros. His selection as No. 6 in this mock can only be attributed to the NY bias of this drafts participants. Let’s face it, no Yankee fan wants to draft Red Sox in the first round.
Betts was almost a 20/20/.300 player as a 23-year-old in 2015 falling just short of .300 at .291 and two homers shy of 20. So it shouldn’t have surprised as many people as it did when he totally broke out as a 24-year-old in 2016.
A right-handed hitter, Betts absolutely owned Fenway Park to the tune of .335/66/17/67/10. He wasn’t bad on the road either slashing .301/56/14/46/16. All told Betts was one of, if not the ,best fantasy performers for the year.
The loss of David Ortiz can be overestimated. That hole in the lineup will hurt Betts chances of a repeat but the kid is a beast and only getting better. Draft Mookie Betts with confidence and enjoy the ride.
Round 1, Pick 7: Manny Machado (3B/SS-BAL)
Manny Machado is the best SS eligible player in fantasy. He’s right near the top of the 3b heap as well. He’s hit over 35 bombs and scored over 100 runs for two consecutive seasons. Yet there are some concerns over what you’re getting here.
The 24-year-old Oriole is one year removed from a 20 steal season but stole 0-in-3 attempts in 2016. That kind of regression is something that catches fantasy owners eyes.
Also, Machado drove weekly league owners crazy last year with his inconsistency. Check out his June/July splits below:
| Monthly | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
| Jun | 5 | 20 | 21 | 0 | .370 |
| Jul | 4 | 13 | 8 | 0 | .204 |
Machado is a great real life and fantasy baseball player. It just seems like he should be even better. For that reason, you may want to wait until around the #10 pick to draft him in 2016.
Round 1, Pick 8: Paul Goldschmidt (1B-ARZ)
Paul Goldschmidt is a solid, consistent performer that fantasy owners can plug into their lineup every day or week and forget about. That’s exactly what you want from your first round pick
Draft him and at the end of the year look up. You’ll either the 25 homer .300, 30 steal Goldschmidt or the 36 homer .320 20 steal Goldie. Either one is awesome.
There are six or seven really good first baseman this year. Owners looking for value in every pick can probably wait until the second or third round to get one with a better return on investment than Paul Goldschmidt. However, if you’re an owner who prefers a sure thing, draft Goldie, pencil him in for 30/20 100/100 or 20/30 100/100 and start thinking about your second round pick.
Round 1, Pick 9: Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET)
Unexpected things happen in fantasy drafts and this was one of them.
This pick, at first glance, seems like a reach as Cabrera’s ADP is anywhere from 13 to 18 on most sites. If you take a closer look, though, you’ll see it’s not as crazy as you may think.
Cabrera was third among first baseman in both batting average (.316) and homers (38) while placings fifth and eighth in RBI and runs, respectively.
Cabrera is 34-years-old and has been torturing major league pitching for 14 seasons. If he were to retire today he would be a clear first ballot hall of famer. Luckily for fantasy owners, he’s going to keep playing.
You can probably wait until the second round to draft him but if you feel a repeat of 2016 is likely don’t be afraid to pull the trigger earlier.
Round 1, Pick 10: Josh Donaldson (3B-TOR)
Josh Donaldson was a decent fantasy third baseman while playing for the Oakland Athletics from 2012-2014. Then, before the start of 2015, in one of legendary GM Billy Beane‘s strangest moves, he was traded to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman and a couple of prospects.
Since that trade Lawrie has moved on to the White Sox and is a fantasy afterthought. Graveman has become a slightly below average starting pitcher for the A’s and waiver-wire fodder in fantasy.
Josh Donaldson is now a Fantasy God. In his two seasons with the Blue Jays Donaldson has 78 homers, 244 runs scored and 222 RBI. He hits in the heart of one of the best lineups in baseball and has shown no signs of slowing down.
Everyone is expecting another solid season from Donaldson in 2017 and you can’t do any better with the #10 pick in the draft.
Round 1, Pick 11: Anthony Rizzo (1B-CHC)
Anthony Rizzo at pick 11 shows you just how deep the first round is this year. He’s pretty much a lock for .280-.290 with 30-plus home runs and elite run production at 1B.
In his age 27 season, Rizzo will be hitting in the 3 or 4 hole every day for the best team in baseball. That’s a recipe for continued success.
Although he’s not stealing bases anymore Rizzo is a solid contributor in all four of the other 5×5 fantasy categories. Rizzo will not make it out of the first round but he has been going late. If it’s possible to be a steal in the first round of a snake draft, Anthony Rizzo at pick 11 is just that.
Round 1, Pick 12: Bryce Harper (OF-WAS)
Bryce Harper was the NL MVP in 2015 and a top three fantasy draft pick in 2016. However last season was a big disappointment for the 23-year-old superstar. He regressed in four of the five fantasy categories and his OPS dropped nearly .300 points.
Recent statements by Harper’s agent Scott Boras allude to an undisclosed injury contributing to the backwardwards last season. The fantasy community seems to agree. All the projections out there point to a big rebound for Harper in 2017.
Last year’s #1/2 can now be had at #12. Sure there’s some risk that 2016 is the new normal for Harper but the upside is viewable in Harper’s 2015 statistics. At the bottom of the first round this aid a no-brainer pick.
Stay tuned for Rounds 2 and 3, coming soon.