The New York Mets are getting healthier and, in turn, better. Here’s what we think they can do with all their returning pieces.
Pitchers and catchers have reported to Port St. Lucie, making the 2017 season officially underway. The New York Mets will be in a race for the National League pennant again with a healthy starting rotation paired with the resigning of star slugger Yoenis Cespedes.It’s just 49 short days until Opening Day when the Mets will take on the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field – and there are so many questions to be answered between now and then.
How will the injured starters bounce back? Will third baseman David Wright‘s back hold up? Can infielder Jose Reyes be the ultimate utility man? Will – or can – general manager Sandy Alderson move either Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson out of his outfield?
With the long month-and-a-half of Spring Training still on the horizon, all onlookers can do for now is speculate and make predictions for what the boys in orange and blue can accomplish this season.
So here are five of Elite Sports NY’s boldest predictions for the Metropolitans in 2017.
Michael Conforto will hit near or over .300
When outfielder Michael Conforto was called up during July of 2015, he soon became a fan favorite. He helped give the Mets a spark down the stretch, propelling them to an NL East title. He was also one of the few bright spots during the World Series, going 5 for 15 with two home runs and four RBIs.The 2016 season didn’t treat Conforto nearly as well though. He got off to a hot start in April, even drawing comparisons to the Angels‘ Mike Trout and Nationals‘ Bryce Harper.
It felt like right after these drastic similarities were realized, Conforto’s season began to go on a downward spiral. The lefty finished the year batting .220, while even spending some time down at Triple-A Las Vegas.
With an abundance of outfielders on the 25-man roster, all signs point towards Conforto beginning the season in Las Vegas to make sure he gets the appropriate amount of at-bats. This could be good for him in helping him find that smooth southpaw swing he had back at the end of 2015.
Conforto has all the tools to become a star in this league and at the ripe age of 23, he has plenty of time to figure it out. If sent down, it won’t be long before he’s back in Queens.
Dominic Smith will finish the season as the Mets’ starting first baseman
It’s pretty clear that Dominic Smith is the first baseman of the future for the Mets. The California native has been raking at all levels of the minor leagues since he was drafted in the first round in 2013. Last season at Double-A Binghamton, Smith hit .302 with 14 home runs and 91 RBIs, showing a sharp rise in power from years past.Lucas Duda has had an up-and-down career filled with injuries since he entered the league in 2010. He’s accomplished everything from clutch hits to his throw home that Mets fans cringe at the thought of.
Watching Duda crank homers during those bad seasons of the early 2010s was one of the very few fun things to watch from those Mets teams. But with one year left on his contract and Smith knocking on the door for a starting gig, 2017 will be The Dude’s last season in a Mets uniform.
Don’t be surprised if Smith takes Duda’s job towards the end of this upcoming season. If Smith continues to progress at Las Vegas, with Duda likely to continue battling injuries, it’s an option Alderson has to seriously ponder.
Addison Reed finishes the season as the Mets’ closer
Ever since the Mets acquired Addison Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks in August of 2015, he has been lights out. During his Mets tenure, Reed has appeared in 97 games with a 1.84 ERA, while leading the majors in holds last season with 40. Reed was one of the best setup men in the MLB last year, helping pave the way for Jeurys Familia‘s record setting save season.Unfortunately, Familia has been in the news recently for the wrong reasons. Last Halloween, Familia was involved in an altercation with his wife and was arrested for simple assault. The case was, however, later dropped by a New Jersey judge in December. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred still has not made a decision regarding Familia, but it is likely he will receive around a 30-game suspension, similar to what his teammate Reyes served last season.
The likely suspension will make Reed the Mets’ closer for the beginning of the season. Reed has previously closed out games for the Chicago White Sox and Diamondbacks, saving 104 games out of 124 save opportunities during his time between the two franchises.
If Reed can carry over his success from last season and be the shutdown reliever he was, it will put manager Terry Collins in a predicament, similar to the situation the New York Yankees had with Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller last season when Chapman returned from his domestic violence related suspension. More than likely, Collins will go back to his closer who set franchise records for consecutive saves and saves in a season.
If at any point Familia struggles though – which he did during some stretches last season – Collins may consider going back to ol’ reliable in Reed.
Noah Syndergaard wins 20 games, takes home NL Cy Young
Last season, Noah Syndergaard showed the baseball world that he’ll be one of the most feared pitchers in the NL with his dazzling heavy heat. According to MLB Statcast, Syndergaard finished fourth in the majors in average pitch speed at a whopping 98.3 mph. His average sinker speed clocked in at 98 mph, making it the fastest sinker in the league.Syndergaard expectedly took great strides in 2016, winning 14 games with a 2.60 ERA, while striking out 218 batters and being selected to his first All-Star game. Oh, and he did that while pitching with bone spurs in his pitching elbow the second half of the season.
According to a recent Sports Illustrated article by Ben Reiter, Syndergaard worked out hard this offseason. He bulked up from 237 pounds to 253, while trimming his body fat from 15.1 percent to 13.5 percent, giving him 17 pounds of lean muscle he didn’t have last year.
A key factor in Syndergaard reaching the 20 win mark is run support. In recent years, the Mets have a history of not getting their star pitching the right run support – ask Matt Harvey about that. If the Mets offense steps up this season and helps out Syndergaard when he doesn’t have his best stuff on a particular night, it will make it a lot easier for him to reach the 20 win mark.
But there is one guaranteed prediction – Thor will continue to win us over on Twitter.
Mets win 95 games, take back the NL East crown
Out of the previous four predictions, this one has to be the boldest. The recent Baseball Prospectus predictions has the Mets winning 88 games, finishing a game ahead of the Washington Nationals. If everything goes right for the Mets, they might be able to top that and reach the 95 win mark. But that’s a big if.There are two main factors in the Mets reaching that plateau.
The first, and most important one, is the health of their starting pitching. When healthy, it’s no question that the Mets’ rotation is one of the best in baseball. You know it could be special when you have Hall of Famer John Smoltz comparing you to himself. Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz are all healthy and ready for Spring Training. Who knows the ceiling for these guys when they’re all pitching together healthy.
After missing the last two seasons due to a seriously prolonged Tommy John recovery, Zack Wheeler is back, but his role is still unknown. According to a report by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, Wheeler doesn’t want to go to the bullpen, at least not for long.
“I know I belong in the starting rotation, there’s no question about that,” Wheeler told The Post.
With the emergence of Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo helping get the Mets to the Wild Card last season, it will give them a safety net in the case that Wheeler cannot produce as expected.
The next big factor is the production out of the outfield. It’s well known what Cespedes is going to produce and how important he is to the offense. That’s why they brought him back for four years and $110 million. What matters is what they can get out of Bruce, Granderson and Conforto.
During the offseason, the Mets could not find anyone to make a deal with for either Granderson or Bruce. Who knows if they will find someone to take them during the season, but for now they’re Mets.
Out of these three players, Conforto is the biggest key. With Granderson and Bruce being long time veterans of the game, management knows roughly what they’ll get out of them. As previously stated, Conforto must progress as a ball player and be the future cornerstone of the outfield that the Mets thought he could be when they chose him in the first round of the 2014 Draft.